IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 06z GEFS mean still absolutely loves the first week of February for a blockbuster event. Verbatim it's epic. It would be quite a let down if we managed to escape this week without at least one big system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The whole month all came down to 2-8 to 2-12 when we picked up 21.8" at Central Park. The key was that the two systems in quick succession were not very amplified and were overrunning events with weak lows. Those two systems would have cut if they were more wound up. 020906.png 021121.png If the heights are high enough in the Davis Strait to prevent this and the low level cold air from the -EPO drills in our area we are in business, like you said the models have been showing a slightly stronger block near the Davis Strait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 06z GEFS mean still absolutely loves the first week of February for a blockbuster event. Verbatim it's epic. It would be quite a let down if we managed to escape this week without at least one big system. You have been honking alot lately for this period and the GFS loves it as well. Id just love to see one more SECS/MECS for the winter and ill be happy. But a blockbuster event would be nice too. What does it show yank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the heights are high enough in the Davis Strait to prevent this and the low level cold air from the -EPO drills in our area we are in business, like you said the models have been showing a slightly stronger block near the Davis Strait That is going to be an important part of the equation. It helped us out in early January when the short term models under 120 hrs finally got the strength correct. Hopefully, it's underestimating the blocking again. But the amplitude of the system ejecting east will be important also. But we have time to see how the models handle these features going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The pattern looks great from the 5 th on , this goes to the 6th , but the cold comes at the end of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GFS is looking a bit more potent for the Super Bowl system through hour 96, light snow moving in Friday morning. We may need to make a separate thread for this one later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GFS is looking a bit more potent for the Super Bowl system through hour 96, light snow moving in Friday morning. We may need to make a separate thread for this one later today. May need to thread the entire weekend , looks like 2 seperate systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good snows this run for Ohio and Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Light snow most of the day Friday. Maybe some bursts of moderate snow, especially over central and southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 YanksFan27 - Good snows this run for Ohio and Western PA. Not sure why thats important to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Our once very potent Super Bowl system is a weak 1016mb low over Kentucky Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Close to something nice YanksFan27 - Good snows this run for Ohio and Western PA. Not sure why thats important to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Rain to Philly by Saturday afternoon. Rain to NYC by Saturday night. Stripe of ZR over southern PA, maybe some light snow for the NW burbs of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Rain for most areas late Saturday night. Surface cold staying locked in far NW. Could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Several inches of snow for interior sections by Sunday morning. Nasty strip of ZR for NW NJ and Orange, western Rockland counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At this point I will take snow all day Friday into Saturday afternoon - lets see if it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Weak surface low essentially develops and passes south of the area and then near Cape Cod, this was very close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Things look to clear out early enough to not affect the game too much. This run was a significant ice storm for Sussex County and immediate surrounding areas. Snow maps showing 4-8" for NW NJ and a lot more in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 approximate snow accumulations please and how much rain falls and then what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 approximate snow accumulations please and how much rain falls and then what happens? Wait until the run finishes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Then of course all eyes turning to the next system. Energy looks very potent coming into California late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Fri to Sun , The entire weekend looks to be NASTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 2-3" NYC, more N and W for GFS up to 165 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like an inch or two for the NNJ/NYC areas with up to 5-6" NW suburbs. Not a good run for anyone really. Models are going back and forth changing with each run as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Fri to Sun , The entire weekend looks to be NASTY Nasty in what way? As in no snow or the icy conditions N&W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Trough is a bit slower to eject and less progressive this run. System organizing over the plains Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How much snow for Friday and how much for Saturday - confusing as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nasty in what way? As in no snow or the icy conditions N&W? The 12z GFS is very little impact for the city and the coast beyond Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 2-3" NYC, more N and W for GFS up to 165 hours I believe that's all from Friday. 850s are too warm for any frozen at the coast from the 2nd part which doesn't begin until Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How much snow for Friday and how much for Saturday - confusing as usual. Its a complicated 2 part system ..will be a huge difference in precip types from the coast and areas well n&w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.