February Forecast Discussion

[PB GFI]

Yeah,that's the power of the -EPO ridge.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_37.png

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_37.png

You would never think one would overlap those maps unless you saw what's going on downstream.

[happy pappy]

IMO not good. The SE ridge will be poking it's ugly head, and will flood the area with warm air leading to a lot of rain chances.

rain is precip right? So if there are a lot of rain chances, how can precip be below normal?

[Metsfan]

rain is precip right? So if there are a lot of rain chances, how can precip be below normal?

What I mean is that when a storm does develop it would be in the form of rain.

[+SNfreak21]

If you look at 500mb maps and see the SE ridge, it looks warm but the -EPO is driving low level cold air, there has been a snowstorm on 2/11/94 where it was 564dm at 500mb

[happy pappy]

What I mean is that when a storm does develop it would be in the form of rain.

i understand but your call is for below normal precipitation.

[ace0927]

If you look at 500mb maps and see the SE ridge, it looks warm but the -EPO is driving low level cold air, there has been a snowstorm on 2/11/94 where it was 564dm at 500mb

what about the 20,000 times it didnt snow with a 564dcm?

[Metsfan]

i understand but your call is for below normal precipitation.

Yes, because I think the SE ridge will provide the area with drier/warmer weather. This is all depending on the strength of the -EPO. If the -EPO is strong than my thinking will be in the tank.

[PB GFI]

I'm sorry I couldn't disagree more with an above normal temps scheme with below normal precip for feb

It goes against the majority of the teleconnections , analogs and ensemble support from this point .

That SE ridge will ensure that not all you're feb precip is snow , but there's no reason feb doesn't yield above

normal snowfall just like dec and jan have with a neg EPO dominated regime.

[PB GFI]

what about the 20,000 times it didnt snow with a 564dcm?

2meter temps. You don't live at 5k feet

[Metsfan]

I'm sorry I couldn't disagree more with an above normal temps scheme with below normal precip for feb

It goes against the majority of the teleconnections , analogs and ensemble support from this point .

That SE ridge will ensure that not all you're feb precip is snow , but there's no reason feb doesn't yield above

normal snowfall just like dec and jan have with a neg EPO dominated regime.

In my outlook I did put a disclaimer at the bottom stating what would happen if the -EPO would dominate.

[PB GFI]

In my outlook I did put a disclaimer at the bottom stating what would happen if the -EPO would dominate.

Oh, I only read what was cut and pasted. The disclaimer wasn't included. So then we are prob gona end up agreeing

If ( which I think ) the neg EPO is the driver. Ok all good then

[EasternLI]

12z gefs says this for days 11-15....fwiw

[Metsfan]

Oh, I only read what was cut and pasted. The disclaimer wasn't included. So then we are prob gona end up agreeing

If ( which I think ) the neg EPO is the driver. Ok all good then

I had to mention the EPO, because if it were to hold then my outlook isn't going to look to good, but lets see what happens. 

[+SNfreak21]

what about the 20,000 times it didnt snow with a 564dcm?

Well this is pertaining to the low level cold air from the -EPO with seemingly above normal heights at 500mb (SE ridge), which is what we will have (or already have), striking similarities to 1994

[happy pappy]

2meter temps. You don't live at 5k feet

he does.

[+SNfreak21]

[PB GFI]

I had to mention the EPO, because if it were to hold then my outlook isn't going to look to good, but lets see what happens.

And on our side if that height field breaks down over the top and EPO goes pos , then 546 heights with PAC air would yield 50 degrees

I just still think those SST anomalies south of the Aleutians promotes high pressure there

We will see

[+SNfreak21]

And on our side if that height field breaks down over the top and EPO goes pos , then 546 heights with PAC air would yield 50 degrees

I just still think those SST anomalies south of the Aleutians promotes high pressure there

We will see

[PB GFI]

12z gefs says this for days 11-15....fwiw

Can't ask for better than that

[Metsfan]

And on our side if that height field breaks down over the top and EPO goes pos , then 546 heights with PAC air would yield 50 degrees

I just still think those SST anomalies south of the Aleutians promotes high pressure there

We will see

With the MJO going into phase 7 this might shunt the ridge over Alaska(-EPO) to the west allowing for a downstream trough over the Pacific to develop which leads to the SE ridge to show it's ugly head in the East.

[+SNfreak21]

With the MJO going into phase 7 this might shunt the ridge over Alaska(-EPO) to the west allowing for a downstream trough over the Pacific to develop which leads to the SE ridge to show it's ugly head in the East.

SE ridge is not too ugly with a phase 7 MJO, phase 6 is. The SE ridge will actually aid us in getting those overrunning events into our area. The only wild card is where the rain/snow line sets up, Feb 1994 was ideal for us because the low level cold air was there to never change us to rain in NYC, CNJ/SNJ is a wildcard, and even if the 850's warm us, it would be ZR with the snowpack in place (the models do not take how much low level cold air there is especially with the snowpack)

[PB GFI]

With the MJO going into phase 7 this might shunt the ridge over Alaska(-EPO) to the west allowing for a downstream trough over the Pacific to develop which leads to the SE ridge to show it's ugly head in the East.

Phase 6 is the death blow. Day 10 euro ensembles the trough is in the east. Day 11 to 13 it backs the trough back ( lil error ) a bit but by day 14 plus its coast to coast cold which is similar to the GFS ensembles

Deep trough in Europe should translate to a deep trough through the lakes.

I like the block on the euro.

[PB GFI]

[Weathergun]

In my outlook I did put a disclaimer at the bottom stating what would happen if the -EPO would dominate.

 

The -EPO has dominated all winter long, with warmer SSTs in the North Pacific. There's no reason, to think it won't continue to dominate into February.. We've saw more low-level cold air than foretasted under the SE ridge in the second week of December. The -AO forecast next month is more favorable for keeping the SE ridge suppressed, than in December. I don't agree with your dry outlook for February. It's very clear, we are going into split-flow pattern. The Gulf will finally open up to every system.

[Metsfan]

The -EPO has dominated all winter long, with warmer SSTs in the North Pacific. There's no reason, to think it won't continue to dominate into February.. We've saw more low-level cold air than foretasted under the SE ridge in the second week of December. The -AO forecast next month is more favorable for keeping the SE ridge suppressed, than in December. I don't agree with your dry outlook for February. It's very clear, we are going into split-flow pattern. The Gulf will finally open up to every system.

The AO is weakly negative. I don't think that it will be much of a factor to keep the SE ridge down.

[easternsnowman]

With the MJO going into phase 7 this might shunt the ridge over Alaska(-EPO) to the west allowing for a downstream trough over the Pacific to develop which leads to the SE ridge to show it's ugly head in the East.

North of nyc will still be ok with that scenerio

[mranger48]

can you please put into words all the delicious things this map may entail? I would like to see it in writing  

Weak west based -NAO, split flow with active southern stream and weak SE ridge w/ -EPO and -AO?…is that a good start? still learning here

[PB GFI]

can you please put into words all the delicious things this map may entail? I would like to see it in writing   [/quote

High than normal heights across the pac thru Alaska over the pole ensure you're source region is arctic not polar Pacific. 2 different air masses. Arctic air is low level cold air that translates to colder 2 m temps. U can see the pac jet cutting underneath with higher than normal heights over Greenland which promotes blocking. With a deep trough in Europe you should see a deeper trough into the east than modeled 15 days out. As it is its Coast to coast cold .

Doesn't mean it's snowy but nothing cuts in that pattern

If there's a ridge than the baroclinic zone that sets up looks to me is over the Mason Dixon line.

[happy pappy]

North of nyc will still be ok with that scenerio

just like clock work

[bluewave]

 

You probably couldn't ask for better agreement between the GEFS and Euro ensembles at 360 hrs.