MJO812 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS has a nice storm on Feb 6-7. 12+ inches of snow for a lot of the area with Philly gettting 15+. This is from the Stormvista maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z GFS is a repeat of Feb 8-11, 1994. We get 4" from a mod snow event on 2/5, then a MECS/HECS on 2/7. Certainly an interesting pattern coming up. What a winter we have had, even just in terms of storms to track. For fun, the larger storm on the GFS was 12-18" for all with 18-21" in the Philly/SNJ area. 8-10" of snow in a 12 hour period. All per SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Dude... you're exaggerating the cold and snow. Just wishful thinking, we all have a fantasy now and then, but it has been an amazing winter so far with many more suprises in store regardless; for me the ice flows in the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Before this pattern fully breaks.....I think we will see a pretty widespread 1-2' snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z GFS is a repeat of Feb 8-11, 1994. We get 4" from a mod snow event on 2/5, then a MECS/HECS on 2/7. Certainly an interesting pattern coming up. What a winter we have had, even just in terms of storms to track. For fun, the larger storm on the GFS was 12-18" for all with 18-21" in the Philly/SNJ area. 8-10" of snow in a 12 hour period. All per SV. The first storm is probably some type of mix ..but looks like a very interesting week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Before this pattern fully breaks.....I think we will see a pretty widespread 1-2' snowstorm Be nice to finish off winter that way and head towards the spring weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Before this pattern fully breaks.....I think we will see a pretty widespread 1-2' snowstorm 2-3' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If this GFS is right with its handling of the MJO heading into 7 then the EPO wins as the ridge will get beaten down If the Euro is right ( I don't think it is ) the that SE is stronger and its wetter Watch the MJO it will give u an indicator as how strong the S E ridge will be. The Euro ensembles continue to block up tha PAC thru the poles and wants to block Greenland too the GFS has neutral look to it in the LR. So I will focus on the MJO if it comes around then its game on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS 12z run is a dream run. Continues the cold, stormy active pattern through the END of it's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If only some of the storms on the LR were able to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think I approve of the 12z gefs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012612/gfs-ens_z500a_namer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Feb 3-10 on the 18Z GFS looks like a total of 25" SNOW(2.5"equiv., almost all while under 32 2mT) for two events in NYC. On another note there still appears to be a sliver of heavy snow reserved for the extreme SE coastal areas next week, before our turn. Good Luck to all. I also note that some members of the GEFS want to celebrate the coldest day in NYC history-Feb. 09, 1934[-15] by making a run for that target! Of course will not happen even with snow covered ground near and far of us, but graph looks wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have created a February outlook blog at liveweatherblogs.com for the NYC Metro region. http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have created a February outlook blog at liveweatherblogs.com for the NYC Metro region. Instead of spamming threads with posts like this, why don't you provide an actual link, as well as a paragraph or two of your forecast? It would be more effective for generating traffic to your site, and less obnoxious for people like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Instead of spamming threads with posts like this, why don't you provide an actual link, as well as a paragraph or two of your forecast? It would be more effective for generating traffic to your site, and less obnoxious for people like me. It's not my site, but I inserted a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's not my site, but I inserted a link. Much better Though the interface/design of that site is beyond terrible & freezes up my computer; you should probably start your own! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Much better Though the interface/design of that site is beyond terrible & freezes up my computer; you should probably start your own! I know. I talked to the developer of the site, and he is going to upgrade the software. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know. I talked to the developer of the site, and he is going to upgrade the software. Not just software -- everything. Too many graphics, no real information, crazy faces staring at me from the sidebar... you should jump & start your own because whomever developed/owns that site has zero clue what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not to clutter up thread with website design advice, but make sure it is device friendly, which right now it is not. You have to scroll left right as well as up down to read.... back to weather now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What happened you guys don't like the 8 to 13 the euro drops through the area from CNJ into the lower Hudson valley In its day 8 to 10 Oh gone is the euro torch. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 New euro is nice for the feb 3-4 event...6"+, this time with MORE N and W...and leaving almost all of NNJ with a foot or more of snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have created a February outlook blog at liveweatherblogs.com for the NYC Metro region. http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 First of all - that has to be the worst weather web site around - having to scroll through all the nonsense first - secondly you state in your link "So, with all the signals covered I think that the month of February will be average to slightly above average in terms of temperatures for the East Coast giving the current mjo state and the NAO/PNA configuration going right along with climatology, and average to slightly below in terms of precipitation just as climatology suggests, because of the unfavorable state of both the NAO/PNA which would increase the likelihood of a ridge along the east coast signaling drier conditions." so how does this prediction look for snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 First of all - that has to be the worst weather web site around - having to scroll through all the nonsense first - secondly you state in your link "So, with all the signals covered I think that the month of February will be average to slightly above average in terms of temperatures for the East Coast giving the current mjo state and the NAO/PNA configuration going right along with climatology, and average to slightly below in terms of precipitation just as climatology suggests, because of the unfavorable state of both the NAO/PNA which would increase the likelihood of a ridge along the east coast signaling drier conditions."[/size] so how does this prediction look for snow ? How does a NEG PNA promote dry anything ? You injecting PAC moisture into the conus . How does a SE ridge promote dry region ? Your aiming the moisture NE . Nuet NAO is a non signal IMO The MJO according to the GFS prob heads to 7. I'm not saying this is 94 or something epic But I think it's anything but dry Warm ? OK if you believe the SE ridge overcomes a NEG EPO driven pattern and the MJO out of 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 First of all - that has to be the worst weather web site around - having to scroll through all the nonsense first - secondly you state in your link GRIM!! "So, with all the signals covered I think that the month of February will be average to slightly above average in terms of temperatures for the East Coast giving the current mjo state and the NAO/PNA configuration going right along with climatology, and average to slightly below in terms of precipitation just as climatology suggests, because of the unfavorable state of both the NAO/PNA which would increase the likelihood of a ridge along the east coast signaling drier conditions." so how does this prediction look for snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 First of all - that has to be the worst weather web site around - having to scroll through all the nonsense first - secondly you state in your link "So, with all the signals covered I think that the month of February will be average to slightly above average in terms of temperatures for the East Coast giving the current mjo state and the NAO/PNA configuration going right along with climatology, and average to slightly below in terms of precipitation just as climatology suggests, because of the unfavorable state of both the NAO/PNA which would increase the likelihood of a ridge along the east coast signaling drier conditions." so how does this prediction look for snow ? IMO not good. The SE ridge will be poking it's ugly head, and will flood the area with warm air leading to rain chances when a storm does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SE ridge at 500 MB does not translate at 2meters with a NEG EPO The entire height field is connected from the PAC thru Alaska over the pole. You're source region is arctic not polar. That low level cold air will push the baroclinic zone further than what the 500mb maps think it will be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How does a NEG PNA promote dry anything ? You injecting PAC moisture into the conus . How does a SE ridge promote dry region ? Your aiming the moisture NE . Nuet NAO is a non signal IMO The MJO according to the GFS prob heads to 7. I'm not saying this is 94 or something epic But I think it's anything but dry Warm ? OK if you believe the SE ridge overcomes a NEG EPO driven pattern and the MJO out of 6 . If there was a storm threat the SE ridge would promote a lake cutter. If there isn't a storm threat, that ridge would create warmer, and drier conditions for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If there was a storm threat the SE ridge would promote a lake cutter. If there isn't a storm threat, that ridge would create warmer, and drier conditions for the region. My issue with dry is the PAC is open for business. If we cut the cfsv2 in half its wet ( think this has done well ) No lake cutters with a neg EPO and the MJO heading thru 7. it may push the baroclinic zone north of 80. But Pos tilted troughs tht come out of the panhandle don't like to cut. They like to exit off the east coast close to where they entered on the west coast Can't say zero cutters but I'm comfortable with tx to the nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SE ridge at 500 MB does not translate at 2meters with a NEG EPO The entire height field is connected from the PAC thru Alaska over the pole. You're source region is arctic not polar. That low level cold air will push the baroclinic zone further than what the 500mb maps think it will be . Yeah ,that's the power of the -EPO ridge and the strong Arctic high pressure pushing down form the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Check out the euro OP. has gone away from the cutter ideas next week because it mishandled the MJO like it has all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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