February Forecast Discussion

[PB GFI]

In a NEG EPO dominated winter , it will come down to the MJO , if comes around through 7 , then the Cold will press

and it will beat back the SE ridge . With a NEG PNA , I  would not look for coastals but West to East based systems ,( 94 )  according to the CFSV2 we open the PAC  fire hydrant .

NOW WE NEED A BLOCK  . In cases like this where there is ridging and the flow is accross the CONUS

you wana make sure nothing runs to the lakes and a Greenland block helps .

If the MJO comes around the EPO will win .

Euro Ensembles look good once past Feb 2 , So do the GFS ensembles and it`s 0z OP .

Every system will be dicey , Some will rain to AC , some to I80  and some to the Mass TPKE . Fingers crossed .

[SnowGoose69]

The pattern looks so eerily similar to February 94 on the 00Z GFS its bizarre

[Absolute Humidity]

The pattern looks so eerily similar to February 94 on the 00Z GFS its bizarre

This is so 94 its scary.

[H2Otown_WX]

I've never seen a year be referenced so frequently in the 4+ years I've been on these boards. I really hope something close to it verifies (too young to remember '94 but I know it was snowy) for February. It seems bold to use such an extreme year as an analog but the longwave pattern is far from benign so why not.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z Euro continues to be meh. February 2nd system cuts to Buffalo. Second system is weak and warm. Plenty of time to sort things out still.

[IsentropicLift]

Euro has the strong day 10 system. I tell you what, if the GFS has even the slightest clue it's going to be a rather exciting few weeks ahead. The GEFS were good too.

[NEG NAO]

Believe it or not flooding might be a concern for Superbowl Weekend if the storm cuts to our west and it warms up and we get moderate to heavy rain along with snow melt - but after that it cools down and sets us up for an active potentially historic first 10 days in February because of multiple storm threats  created by the split flow pattern developing......

[Ralph Wiggum]

Believe it or not flooding might be a concern for Superbowl Weekend if the storm cuts to our west and it warms up and we get moderate to heavy rain along with snow melt - but after that it cools down and sets us up for an active potentially historic first 10 days in February because of multiple storm threats  created by the split flow pattern developing......

Not sure we're entering an historic pattern with the mjo possibly in phase 6. Spells a major se ridge though if the -epo holds or strengthens all bets r off.

[NEG NAO]

Not sure we're entering an historic pattern with the mjo possibly in phase 6. Spells a major se ridge though if the -epo holds or strengthens all bets r off.

Thats why I used the word "potentially" not so much for one big storm but multiple storms and the cold enough air is going to be fighting just as hard as the southeast ridge - anyone north of the mason dixon line is in this potential

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro sucked in this exact pattern back in December we may be headed into again, it was constantly trying to pump an insane SE ridge at Day 7 and beyond because the gradient pattern with EPO ridge shifted west allows the Euro to continually overdig stuff down in the SW, notice how the Day 8 ridge is now markedly muted on last night's run vs the Day 10 ridge on the run 48 hours back...the GFS ideas are likely more correct in this pattern while in the pattern we have now and had the last few weeks with the ridge over the CONUS has tended to favor the Euro minus its ideas on the storms.  Its funny how in each pattern one model has continually wanted to break it down and warm us up but ended up wrong in both months.

[jjvesnow]

Believe it or not flooding might be a concern for Superbowl Weekend if the storm cuts to our west and it warms up and we get moderate to heavy rain along with snow melt - but after that it cools down and sets us up for an active potentially historic first 10 days in February because of multiple storm threats created by the split flow pattern developing......

The Super Bowl storm looks like a snow to ice to rain situation to me. Especially north and west of the city. Assuming it cuts west. Gonna be interesting seeing how much cold air is left before the system comes our way.

We did very well in the same pattern in December, so chances are we do well again in the same pattern in February. IMO

[bluewave]

The Pacific jet looks to finally break through into Northern California and the PAC NW along

with the Gulf opening for business the next few weeks.

 

[PB GFI]

The Pacific jet looks to finally break through into Northern California and the PAC NW along

with the Gulf opening for business the next few weeks.

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

[PB GFI]

Cut that in half and its outrageous .

[NEG NAO]

6 - 7 inches qpf here in february ? - now that would biblical if 75 % of that was frozen

[EasternLI]

I like this look

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

6-7" QPF, a -EPO and -AO. Wow, lol.

[PB GFI]

6 - 7 inches qpf here in february ? - now that would biblical if 75 % of that was frozen

I think we cut those total in half and its abut 50 p is  frozen  CFSV2 kinda warm week 2 . The Block  shows up on the Euro D 15

ensembles , which would turn the 7th thru th 21st cold again and that matches the CFS

NEG EPO  still driving this , now we really do need the  Block

[REDMK6GLI]

6-7" QPF, a -EPO and -AO. Wow, lol.

 

if that verifies we NEED to be on the right side of the gradient or its just going to be a washout. If we can get that -EPO and -AO to flex its muscles we may have a chance to cash in before  the end of met winter

[NEG NAO]

I think we cut those total in half and its abut 50 p is  frozen  CFSV2 kinda warm week 2 . The Block  shows up on the Euro D 15

ensembles , which would turn the 7th thru th 21st cold again and that matches the CFS

NEG EPO  still driving this , now we really do need the  Block

we did ok in Dec with a +NAO most of the month and this time around the ocean temps are not a worry

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

 

with all that precip forecasted February 2010 comes to mind - if that happened 95 - 96 record snowfall will be approached by seasons end have to keep in mind its not impossible considering we are in an extreme pattern again

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

[SnowGoose69]

The SB event to me is probably mostly rain there is no good high to the north for overrunning at all but the ensuing systems thereafter look to be a much bigger threat for snow

[PB GFI]

The SB event to me is probably mostly rain there is no good high to the north for overrunning at all but the ensuing systems thereafter look to be a much bigger threat for snow

The GFS and Canadian are more frozen , I just ignore the Euro at this point to be honest .

Think as the H retreats , the SLP comes out . Most of the precip is frozen and as it lightens it drizzles on the end .

[NEG NAO]

The GFS and Canadian are more frozen , I just ignore the Euro at this point to be honest .

Think as the H retreats , the SLP comes out . Most of the precip is frozen and as it lightens it drizzles on the end .

For Now I agree the EURO has been lost in this pattern all winter - Needs to be worked on again to get it back to its old self - usually with a gradient pattern north of the Mason Dixon Line does well

[PB GFI]

For Now I agree the EURO has been lost in this pattern all winter - Needs to be worked on again to get it back to its old self - usually with a gradient pattern north of the Mason Dixon Line does well

I think the Euro just blew up this year in a NEG EPO pattern , its the only thing I can think of . Its just been so bad .

[Ralph Wiggum]

For Now I agree the EURO has been lost in this pattern all winter - Needs to be worked on again to get it back to its old self - usually with a gradient pattern north of the Mason Dixon Line does well

I think the Euro just blew up this year in a NEG EPO pattern , its the only thing I can think of . Its just been so bad .

euro always blows chunks in a neg epo its been documented.

[REDMK6GLI]

I think the Euro just blew up this year in a NEG EPO pattern , its the only thing I can think of . Its just been so bad .

 

quite simply just shat the bed. not very often were tossing the EURO during forecasts

[Mikehobbyst]

The SB event to me is probably mostly rain there is no good high to the north for overrunning at all but the ensuing systems thereafter look to be a much bigger threat for snow

I think this SB weekend is a moderate ZR event for NYC and LI that starts as a period of snow and sleet.  Snowcover could perpetuate ice threat. Do not see rain w/ this SB event.... I really like the SN to Major ZR threat 2/4 to 2/5 per the 6Z GFS as it shows the potential to be high in the next 7-10 day pattern.  Looks like the only above freezing period for the next 10-15 days is tomorrow morning.  This is amazing.  - EPO looks to indefinately continue for several more weeks with split flow and neutral to slightly negative AO and neutral NAO.  We look prime for 1994 type action from 2/4 to 2/20, wonder if the party is crashed the last week of February with warmth starting to snap the band so to speak. Epic February en route seems like a safe call to our area.  I think it is tons of snow and perpetual ice till the last 6-7 days of the month.  Historical 4 weeks could be ahead of subfreezing temps, and also snowcover duration records  may be shattered for NYCnand LI.  I am dead serious in this post and not making a joke.  Pattern screams high potential for our area, it looks so dam close to 94 it is not even funny.....

[SnowGoose69]

euro always blows chunks in a neg epo its been documented.

 

Yeah it plays right into its bias of being able to overdig upper systems in the Desert SW, if the ridge is over the western US it will be okay as it was the last few weeks, it did a good job in the overall pattern although not so good with the storms...now its likely to start struggling again as the ridge retrogrades.

[bluewave]

Yeah it plays right into its bias of being able to overdig upper systems in the Desert SW, if the ridge is over the western US it will be okay as it was the last few weeks, it did a good job in the overall pattern although not so good with the storms...now its likely to start struggling again as the ridge retrogrades.

 

It's interesting how it's ensemble means can be spot on as it nailed the cold this past week from day 8-14

while the GFS  had above normal temperatures. But the storm details have been a struggle at times 

in the fast flow.It beat the GFS with the idea of yesterdays storm cutting while the GFS was south

before it caved. Maybe we are asking too much form any model to always nail the storm details

when there isn't much spacing in the wavelengths between storms. It usually does great with

major storms that occur in very amplified situations. The ensemble does well at correcting the

OP when the actual pattern isn't as amplified.

[TWCCraig]

I think this SB weekend is a moderate ZR event for NYC and LI that starts as a period of snow and sleet.  Snowcover could perpetuate ice threat. Do not see rain w/ this SB event.... I really like the SN to Major ZR threat 2/4 to 2/5 per the 6Z GFS as it shows the potential to be high in the next 7-10 day pattern.  Looks like the only above freezing period for the next 10-15 days is tomorrow morning.  This is amazing.  - EPO looks to indefinately continue for several more weeks with split flow and neutral to slightly negative AO and neutral NAO.  We look prime for 1994 type action from 2/4 to 2/20, wonder if the party is crashed the last week of February with warmth starting to snap the band so to speak. Epic February en route seems like a safe call to our area.  I think it is tons of snow and perpetual ice till the last 6-7 days of the month.  Historical 4 weeks could be ahead of subfreezing temps, and also snowcover duration records  may be shattered for NYCnand LI.  I am dead serious in this post and not making a joke.  Pattern screams high potential for our area, it looks so dam close to 94 it is not even funny.....

 

Dude... you're exaggerating the cold and snow.