rcad1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I know it's far out and will probably change 20 more times but that would suck if February 4 was our next storm and it was snow to rain... Hopefully the track changes and hopefully we get something before then but don't think the chances are looking good right now even Upton in there latest disco said next week will be cold and dry......if that storm on the 4th is rain.. this week will be just a waste of cold air in my opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 A waste of cold air?! This cold air is responsible for the white fluffy stuff crunching underneath your feet. I know it's far out and will probably change 20 more times but that would suck if February 4 was our next storm and it was snow to rain... Hopefully the track changes and hopefully we get something before then but don't think the chances are looking good right now even Upton in there latest disco said next week will be cold and dry......if that storm on the 4th is rain.. this week will be just a waste of cold air in my opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Didn't mean this week meant next week will be a waste of cold airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think that the reason that the models went a little warmer than yesterday for day 8-14 is that they try to take the MJO back into phase 6 which is milder. the models have been very changeable with the MJO last few days so it will be interesting to see how things turn out. If we actually get back into phase 6 during the first week of February, than the SE ridge becomes a player and we need the wave coming out to be weak so the low level cold air holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think that the reason that the models went a little warmer than yesterday for day 8-14 is that they try to take the MJO back into phase 6 which is milder. the models have been very changeable with the MJO last few days so it will be interesting to see how things turn out. If we actually get back into phase 6 during the first week of February, than the SE ridge becomes a player and we need the wave coming out to be weak so the low level cold air holds. EDH101-240.gif ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif FebruaryPhase6500mb.gif We want the MJO really to be in phase 7,8 and 1 optimally. 6 wouldnt be great because as you said its a milder phase of tropical forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We want the MJO really to be in phase 7,8 and 1 optimally. 6 wouldnt be great because as you said its a milder phase of tropical forcing You can see how the models can struggle from day to day near the end of the run. Just yesterday the wave spent more time in the colder 7. But the JMA did indicate that the February pattern would feature the SE ridge or WAR being more of a player like December as the coldest anomalies shifted back to the upper Midwest. yesterday JMA February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 All the teleconnections are still there. -EPO, -AO and -NAO. Ensembles are supportive of this through at least mid February. +PNA breaking down and MJO around phase 6 would help with the SE ridge. More of a gradient pattern but that won't eliminate all snow chances. 2mT on ensembles have us below average through mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ignore the Euro OP for the SB , its just wrong , A SLP running to ORD is prob a bad solution . Its a result of the Euro ( which is its common error ) locking off energy in the SW for 3 days , ( the GFS takes it right out ) the result is it kicks the ridge up in front of it , sending it up west of the MTNS. I think this exits off the EC . Would have to wait for " mid week " period to clear itself up . But go with the GFS . The Euro OP is useless this winter . There`s something in this pattern its algo is not handling well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Euro OP is useless this winter . There`s something in this pattern its algo is not handling well .doesn't handle a -epo very well from what I've read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If the MJO goes into Phase 6 and the NAO is going more positive, then why would you just throw out the Euro solution? It may have struggled but it's still a player in figuring out a pattern in the longer ranges. There's clearly been a warmer trend that can't be ignored and it's my biggest fear in a gradient pattern that the SE ridge is too powerful. We could still have inland runners in this pattern so a storm cutting way west is certainly a possibility. The gfs, FWIW, is also rather warm and shows mostly rain though it's way out there in time to worry about for now. Whether it rains or snows most of us should be happy because many are either at or above their seasonal averages as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If the MJO goes into Phase 6 and the NAO is going more positive, then why would you just throw out the Euro solution? It may have struggled but it's still a player in figuring out a pattern in the longer ranges. There's clearly been a warmer trend that can't be ignored and it's my biggest fear in a gradient pattern that the SE ridge is too powerful. We could still have inland runners in this pattern so a storm cutting way west is certainly a possibility. The gfs, FWIW, is also rather warm and shows mostly rain though it's way out there in time to worry about for now. Whether it rains or snows most of us should be happy because many are either at or above their seasonal averages as of now. There is no reason for a cut off low to sit off the SW coast for 3 days . You throw it out because its a common Euro error , it hold energy too long in its LR . So I toss . The SE is not now and has not been TOO powerful at any point this winter with a NEG EPO the Ridge gets beat everytime . Go with the GFS The GFS doesn't have to show snow , that's not my point SLP to ORD is wrong is my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There is no reason for a cut off low to sit off the SW coast for 3 days . You throw it out because its a common Euro error , it hold energy too long in its LR . So I toss . The SE is not now and has not been TOO powerful at any point this winter with a NEG EPO the Ridge gets beat everytime . Go with the GFS The GFS doesn't have to show snow , that's not my point SLP to ORD is wrong is my point I do trust the gfs more so than the Euro, and I don't think it's going to cut so far west but it cutting further inland is definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There is no reason for a cut off low to sit off the SW coast for 3 days . You throw it out because its a common Euro error , it hold energy too long in its LR . So I toss . The SE is not now and has not been TOO powerful at any point this winter with a NEG EPO the Ridge gets beat everytime . Go with the GFS The GFS doesn't have to show snow , that's not my point SLP to ORD is wrong is my point Those waves coming out need to be weak so the WAA doesn't spoil the party. Anything amped up will be a front end thump then a changeover if the MJO forecast is correct. Still too early to know if the models correct yet with the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Those waves coming out need to be weak so the WAA doesn't spoil the party. Anything amped up will be a front end thump then a changeover if the MJO forecast is correct. Still too early to know if the models correct yet with the MJO forecast. Totally agree . I think the exit near the Delmarva , I cant see strength and precip type 7 days out , but I can see a prob error where the Euro spins a system from hour 72- 144 in the SW and that kicks the RIDGE up in front of it . Pos tilted troughs like to come up east of the MTNS anyway .Theres nothing in the flow , that cut that system off for 3 days IMO But I almost don't care what the Euro has to say the rest of the way . Its been awful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Surface in the upper 20`s to around 30 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Surface in the upper 20`s to around 30 .sleet/ice signature? That would make for a fun sb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 sleet/ice signature? That would make for a fun sb. Precip looking likely at some point during Sunday . Its def a raw day . Just happy im not in the stands for this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Going into this month I am worried about the unfavorable MJO pattern that may lead to the overall evolution of a -PNA dominated month. The NAO is not in a favorable state either. These two factors will lead to slightly above average temperatures and average to slightly below average precipitation I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z Euro at 168 hours looks like 2/8/94, the 12z is colder than the 0z, very 1994 like, this screams snow to ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Euro is light snow to light-mod rain on sb morning.. Looks like 2ndry development saves folks north of us..Primary makes it to northern PA. .Edit: snow maps show a few inches in nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No wonder the Euro is having so much back and forth during the first week of February as it has quite a bit of spread in the MJO near the end of the run. We want the wave closer to COD as it approaches 6 rather than more amped which would pump SE Ridge more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 With a neg PNA and using 1994 as an analog I'm pretty sure Feb isn't dry. But it could be wet not white. But not dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No wonder the Euro is having so much back and forth during the first week of February as it has quite a bit of spread in the MJO near the end of the run. We want the wave closer to COD as it approaches 6 rather than more amped which would pump SE Ridge more. Look at how much Better the gfs has handled the MJO in this neg EPO driven winter. MJO coming out a 6. Patience. The euro is finished for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12Z Euro ensembles are colder than the op for next weekend..850 line runs south of the area around the PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 With a neg PNA and using 1994 as an analog I'm pretty sure Feb isn't dry. But it could be wet not white. But not dry. It will be interesting to see if the CFS will be even half as wet as it is showing for February since it did very well for January. This looks like a clash of the titans pattern between Arctic high pressure to the north and the SE ridge trying to push back. The exact location of the gradient is going to make the difference between wet or white or a mixture of the two. The under 72 hr model option for storm details will probably be our best friend as there is probably going to be a parade of storms one after the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 With a neg PNA and using 1994 as an analog I'm pretty sure Feb isn't dry. But it could be wet not white. But not dry. Feb 94 was both plenty white and plenty wet...I saw piles of snow melted in one uproarious 50 degree downpour that caused flooding. March pelted us with a 5-6 inch sleet storm. Imagine that much sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 With a neg PNA and using 1994 as an analog I'm pretty sure Feb isn't dry. But it could be wet not white. But not dry. It will be interesting to see if the CFS will be even half as wet as it is showing for February since it did very well for January. This looks like a clash of the titans pattern between Arctic high pressure to the north and the SE ridge trying to push back. The exact location of the gradient is going to make the difference between wet or white or a mixture of the two. The under 72 hr model option for storm details will probably be our best friend as there is probably going to be a parade of storms one after the other. I'm thinking the consistent signal on the CFS for wet and cold (-EPO -PNA) is getting close enough to the end of January that there's something to it out your way. With the likelihood of a gradient pattern, exact precipitation type will likely be tough to pin down until very close to the event. February 1994 seems to be a good analog, so you could do well in the snow dept, but with the southeast ridge, a heightened risk of non snow frozen precipitation and plain rain at times. Out here in IL I think we even run the risk of a warmish storm or two if one gets too amped up (western trough deepens and really pumps the SE ridge), but we should be far enough west for mainly snow. The sad part is that through all of this, California can't win. They'll be doing an El Nino dance before next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Before everyone throws themselves off the highest point of there house after seeing some of the operationals today and the cuttter fest that the models have in the day 10 to 15 . The CFSV2 , says no . Day 15 on the Euro ensembles has the block . I dont buy a MONSTER SE ridge sending every system to ORD .( maybe 1 or 2 ) Think the MJO comes around . There will be a SE RIDGE , but if its met with this and a Block , then it 1994 . 36 season to date in CN , it`s been good so far , dont think its over yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Before everyone throws themselves off the highest point of there house after seeing some of the operationals today and the cuttter fest that the models have in the day 10 to 15 . The CFSV2 , says no . Day 15 on the Euro ensembles has the block . I dont buy a MONSTER SE ridge sending every system to ORD .( maybe 1 or 2 ) Think the MJO comes around . There will be a SE RIDGE , but if its met with this and a Block , then it 1994 . 36 season to date in CN , it`s been good so far , dont think its over yet . I'm with you on this, and the 18z gefs are showing maybe some signs of ridging near greenland near the end of the run. Might be some support of the euro idea, we'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs is back to cold and snowy the week of the 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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