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February Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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You gotta bring life into these forums. Ive been a mainstay on vwvortex.com as i have a show car and humor and enthusiasm works wonders. And yes i "by accident" started with the ;) again and some people in here think im trying to start mating season in here or something haha.

Back to the weekend threat that "im over excited for". John posted that wednesday storm IF modeled correctly would be in 50/50 position which would aid the 2/8 storm, that coupled with higher heights toward greenland and also a favorable PV positions. The models seem to liking that period as well with what the GFS/EURO have been showing. I do expect to see the EURO start working in its bias and holding back energy so i wont jump off a cliff when i see that periodically. Is there a chance it could go poof? Of course, thats why getting these storms that can make a run at the big dogs on the NESIS scale are so hard to get, the checklist for it to happen is much bigger. One thing than opened my eyes today when paul said and i quote "if there is a storm to go all in on its this one" really meant alot being that hes been pretty spot on this winter and is unbiased. I am taking anything away from john though as he is damn good at what he does as well

Yeah, Don Sutherland is barking about the period between 2/8-2/15 as well. I hope that the ENSO regions continues to cool so that we extend this below-normal temperature pattern until the middle of March. I also heard that yesterday's GFS run showed stratospheric warming which would contribute to retaining an -AO for a longer period of time.

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The only thing that could go wrong with the 8th is that the split flow could merge early to the point that we get a cutter, but with the block in place and the PV over SE Canada, the chances of a cutter is little to none. So I think it's best that we watch February 6th for any good consistency.

Study chaos theory a little bit and you'll realize that there are so many things that could still go wrong with this system, that it's not funny.  Yes, the probability of a major snowstorm at Day 10 actually verifying is greater than it would be normally, without any model support, but it's still way closer to zero than 100%, given the incomplete and inaccurate set of initial conditions for any model run, combined with the variations introduced by perturbations form those initial conditions, as time goes by.  Let's put it this way: there are probably dozens of model runs per winter at 10 days that depict historic (12" or more) snowstorms and we only get one every 4 years, based on Central Park data (36 in 145 years, if I recall correctly).  Enjoy the ride, but don't get too confident...

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Study chaos theory a little bit and you'll realize that there are so many things that could still go wrong with this system, that it's not funny.  Yes, the probability of a major snowstorm at Day 10 actually verifying is greater than it would be normally, without any model support, but it's still way closer to zero than 100%, given the incomplete and inaccurate set of initial conditions for any model run, combined with the variations introduced by perturbations form those initial conditions, as time goes by.  Let's put it this way: there are probably dozens of model runs per winter at 10 days that depict historic (12" or more) snowstorms and we only get one every 4 years, based on Central Park data (36 in 145 years, if I recall correctly).  Enjoy the ride, but don't get too confident...

more even keel posts like these are exactly what the thread needs... exciting options on the table, but which come to fruition is a completely different ball game.. I tend to like the second potential better than the first but its merely speculation by any of us at this point..

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The 12z Euro is interesting for Monday. It looks stronger than previous runs. Snow on Philly's doorstep as the game in ending.

from HM:  Monday's wave runs into confluence but I suspect the wave is being dampened too quickly. Deformation zones are placed right now similarly to the 29th storm on GFS. I think this keeps trending

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yup the same refrain - south and east of the city will do best again - story of the winter -- not complaining just noting.. im just a little too far north for this one I do believe unless we get some additional trends.. 

Its ok , we will pay for it Wed , Thats not our  storm  in CNJ . 

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Note how all the snow we got this winter so far was without a dominant -NAO (early Jan had a transient block in a neutral NAO dominated pattern tho), all thanks to the -EPO, the pattern you mentioned sounds unfavorable but it happened in Feb 1994, Feb 2013 was in a -PNA


 


List of "thread in the needle events": Feb 1983 (only snowstorm in a terrible Strong El nino pattern with HP to the north and low right up the coast)


 


Feb 1994: If baroclinic zone was farther north like 2007-08, we would have been screwed


 


Dec 2002: LP closed off faster off the coast than expected, (sounds familiar to now except this is not a Primary to coastal scenario)


 


Feb 2006: Best thread in the needle event: warm winter, transient +PNA helped,  


 


March 2009: +NAO, narrow band 


 


Dec 2010: Everything could have gone wrong in that ( energy diving around the trough in a highly amplified pattern)


 


Jan 27, 2011: Marginal temps, strong mid level disturbance, quick hit,  saw earthlights posts from 3 years ago saying it would be rain lol


 


Feb 2013: This seemed to come out of no where in a unfavorable pattern, a "bowling ball" in the 500mb pattern, La nina favored NE but we still got 6-12"


 


January 2-3, 2014: Very progressive pattern but transient block in Davis Strait helped thread the needle, you can tell it was progressive by how warm the temps were 4 days later, PV too close for comfort but still pulled it off


 


January 21-22, 2014: Even more lucky, was not expecting this until 2 days before when 9z SREFs blew the snow horn, the trough digged just enough to throw back heavy snows to coastal areas, 11.5" NYC, could have easily been a trace


 


The point is that you can always thread the needle no matter how bad the pattern is


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Note how all the snow we got this winter so far was without a dominant -NAO (early Jan had a transient block in a neutral NAO dominated pattern tho), all thanks to the -EPO, the pattern you mentioned sounds unfavorable but it happened in Feb 1994, Feb 2013 was in a -PNA

 

 

 

January was a good pattern for snow here since the NE based block was able to extend over Greenland in the 

monthly mean while the EPO ridge pressed far enough into PNA territory to keep the trough locked in the East.

December still finished with above average snow all on the EPO without any help form the Atlantic.

 

 

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The system on the 15th has weight also.

 

Remember the PDII references you keep adding. Look at the 18Z GFS @HR 360 on the H5 map and compare to the H5 from PDII.

 

Here's a reference from the PDII event: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03-500MillibarMaps.html

 

Now that's a close one. 

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