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February Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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Not giving up on it but not getting that excited over it. Especially what potentially could be cooking for the weekend that looks to be alot bigger

I think we said the same thing last week....let the super bowl storm be rain so we can get something bigger mid week lol. Before you know it we'll be looking to March for snow

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Exactly, I don't think the Southeast would have had an easier time from a direct hit from a storm like Sandy. What also made it more difficult up here was the cold weather and snow which came immediately after, and the millions of people with no power or heat. And the surge, which caused the most damage, is a unique threat to this region. South Florida for example has a very steep offshore slope and even Andrew brought surge less high than Sandy brought us.

I guess his point was to those that deal with hurricanes all the time down south it would still make us look like wimps because they don't understand our geography and how different the impact is up here as opposed to the gulf coast or Florida. With that being said I think we do get that even a couple inches of snow can wreak havoc in the south because they're not used to it. What I can't understand is how people had to spend the night snowed in at schools etc for 3". That part to me was mindboggling.

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IF the current model guidance is correct the storm following Feb 4-5 is almost a layup. Increasing heights near Greenland, confluent flow and a fresh high pressure over New England, a broad southern stream trough ejecting from the Southwest US, and the Feb 4/5 storm transitionally near the 50/50 position. 

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IF the current model guidance is correct the storm following Feb 4-5 is almost a layup. Increasing heights near Greenland, confluent flow and a fresh high pressure over New England, a broad southern stream trough ejecting from the Southwest US, and the Feb 4/5 storm transitionally near the 50/50 position. 

I could see this jackpotting the DC area and sliding mostly to our east.

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IF the current model guidance is correct the storm following Feb 4-5 is almost a layup. Increasing heights near Greenland, confluent flow and a fresh high pressure over New England, a broad southern stream trough ejecting from the Southwest US, and the Feb 4/5 storm transitionally near the 50/50 position. 

Nice.  Exciting week and a half ahead...  If there's been one thing we have not lacked this winter --- it's the fun of tracking events!

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IF the current model guidance is correct the storm following Feb 4-5 is almost a layup. Increasing heights near Greenland, confluent flow and a fresh high pressure over New England, a broad southern stream trough ejecting from the Southwest US, and the Feb 4/5 storm transitionally near the 50/50 position.

Looking VERY tasty to say the least to deliver a blizzard from DC-BOSTON that may make a run for the books! ;)

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I'm starting to think he is the more intimate version/brother of Mikehobbyist. :)

LOL biggest difference is im not making grand slam calls for day after tommorow cold and NESIS 5+ BECS storms. Just excited for a single system being forecasted for next weekend. Atleast give me that im not as outlandish my friend haha

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Haha i am cool, just excited for a nice threat that would be widespread. Looks pretty good especially with what the mid week system would do to aid the weekend storm

I love the enthusiam, just like I was. But so much can go wrong and poof its gone. Its just to far out my friend to start whailing on the air horns..I am excited its on the maps and would love to see another 96' type storm. Lets just hope it sticks at this point

Edit.. if this is still on its way come next tuesday night, I will seriously start to get a woody..lol

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I love the enthusiam, just like I was. But so much can go wrong and poof its gone. Its just to far out my friend to start whailing on the air horns..I am excited its on the maps and would love to see another 96' type storm. Lets just hope it sticks at this point

Your absolutely correct and im not totally sold on this systems certainty. Just more excited that it shows more promise for a widespread snowstorm over what may transpire with the mid week system.

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Having the 5th system more amped might be a helping agent in the next system as the 2/5 event will help to suppress the baroclinic zone. The result is what the models have been showing as of recently. An overrunning event to rain (2/5) and then another possible event right after. Not worried about the 2/5 event cutting at the moment.

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LOL biggest difference is im not making grand slam calls for day after tommorow cold and NESIS 5+ BECS storms. Just excited for a single system being forecasted for next weekend. Atleast give me that im not as outlandish my friend haha

Nah, you don't make the same dogmatic mentality as him when it comes to forecasting storms. You bring a lot of encouragement into these threads with is very positive, regardless.

 

By the way, you have started up with those "winks" again. :P

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IF the current model guidance is correct the storm following Feb 4-5 is almost a layup. Increasing heights near Greenland, confluent flow and a fresh high pressure over New England, a broad southern stream trough ejecting from the Southwest US, and the Feb 4/5 storm transitionally near the 50/50 position. 

More like a slam dunk. A classical and almost textbook setup for a major storm around here, which could really benefit the D.C. and Baltimore area even more so than us.

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More like a slam dunk. A classical and almost textbook setup for a major storm around here, which could really benefit the D.C. and Baltimore area even more so than us.

the 4/5 storm affecting DC more than us or the following one? 4/5 looks too warm to bring snow further down south, but for the following storm id agree with your statement..

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Nah, you don't make the same dogmatic mentality as him when it comes to forecasting storms. You bring a lot of encouragement into these threads with is very positive, regardless.

By the way, you have started up with those "winks" again. :P

You gotta bring life into these forums. Ive been a mainstay on vwvortex.com as i have a show car and humor and enthusiasm works wonders. And yes i "by accident" started with the ;) again and some people in here think im trying to start mating season in here or something haha.

Back to the weekend threat that "im over excited for". John posted that wednesday storm IF modeled correctly would be in 50/50 position which would aid the 2/8 storm, that coupled with higher heights toward greenland and also a favorable PV positions. The models seem to liking that period as well with what the GFS/EURO have been showing. I do expect to see the EURO start working in its bias and holding back energy so i wont jump off a cliff when i see that periodically. Is there a chance it could go poof? Of course, thats why getting these storms that can make a run at the big dogs on the NESIS scale are so hard to get, the checklist for it to happen is much bigger. One thing than opened my eyes today when paul said and i quote "if there is a storm to go all in on its this one" really meant alot being that hes been pretty spot on this winter and is unbiased. I am taking anything away from john though as he is damn good at what he does as well

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