PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I agree. The low level cold air will hold its ground as one wave or multiple shoot east. GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif I agree. The low level cold air will hold its ground as one wave or multiple shoot east. GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif The GFS is only a day later than the Euro next weekend with the fire hose and the GFS OP is colder so are the 0z euro and the 12z GFS ensembles That's the pattern you and I discussed when we saw the JMA weeklies . Lets see if the JMA can keep it s scorching hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro was so tantalizingly close to a MECS today lol. Then somehow, it took the SE ridge and rammed it through the PV. Not buying it. The 2/4-2/6 period remains ripe for another KU event. First couple weeks of February are looking more and more like Feb, 1994 every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro ensembles are extremely excited about the 4th. The mean is about as juiced as you will ever see a day 12 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's way too far out to pinpoint because the storm could easily disappear next run. Instead it's best to just look at the broad scope in this pattern. I'm surprised so many are moving past next week's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's way too far out to pinpoint because the storm could easily disappear next run. Instead it's best to just look at the broad scope in this pattern. I'm surprised so many are moving past next week's potential. Wolf just wrote some good reasoning why the mid week storm may still happen in the january discussion thread, go check it out bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's way too far out to pinpoint because the storm could easily disappear next run. Instead it's best to just look at the broad scope in this pattern. I'm surprised so many are moving past next week's potential. If you've been following along you probably already know that it's been consistently showing up for the past several days. You almost never see an ensemble mean at day 12 with greater than 0.10"+ QPF contours concentrated like that in one general area. It's a big signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 wow at those temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro ensembles day 10 thru 14 are great. Day 15 is the same ole error , like the days before where the trough is now deeper In the east this pattern goes on and on . NEG EPO. Upper latitudes are blocked deep trough in Europe I didn't post the CFSV2 precip weeklies starting Feb 3 because they look too over the top . Suffice to say not gona be Cold and dry no matter which model you look at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Ready for the SB ? Yank if u get next frame faster throw it , ewall slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Precip is starting to move in at 186 hours. This looks like it's going to be a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Amarillo to AC 850 to the Mason Dixon line Thank the JMA if this happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 850's look warm but the surface temps are cold. Nice track on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Incoming On GFS Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like 2/8/1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Northern extent of rain (or ice?) snow line reaches Monmouth county, very 1994 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The overrunning coincides with the collapse of the PNA. Without a +PNA, you'll get disturbances crashing into the west coast which is great when you got the PV on your side and plenty of low level cold. I could see a train of disturbances to start February, perhaps one will occur during the SB? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Precip is starting to move in at 186 hours. This looks like it's going to be a nice hit. Minimal upper support and it's 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The overrunning coincides with the collapse of the PNA. Without a +PNA, you'll get disturbances crashing into the west coast which is great when you got the PV on your side and plenty of low level cold. I could see a train of disturbances to start February, perhaps one will occur during the SB? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif It truly is an amazing pattern going forward. The -EPO ridge continues to build even though we lose the PNA. Everything up north looks blocked up with the -AO suppressing the vortex south. The pattern has overrunning potential writtenall over it. The Euro Ensembles look amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snow to rain on SB Sunday per 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS is going into its usual convulsions, lost the storm at its usual Day 5 lose the storm marker (which the 00Z CMC still shows BTW) and now advances the gradient pattern up 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 February 4th still looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS is going into its usual convulsions, lost the storm at its usual Day 5 lose the storm marker (which the 00Z CMC still shows BTW) and now advances the gradient pattern up 5-7 days. In regards to the day 5 threat, hopefully that kicker is overdone on both models. I'm still not tossing in the towel. Last week taught me that lesson in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In regards to the day 5 threat, hopefully that kicker is overdone on both models. I'm still not tossing in the towel. Last week taught me that lesson in this pattern. The NOGAPS has precip at 108 hours about 300 miles north of the GFS into central GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 February 4th still looking good For rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NOGAPS has precip at 108 hours about 300 miles north of the GFS into central GA Even The Nam At 84 Looks Potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NOGAPS has precip at 108 hours about 300 miles north of the GFS into central GA That does raise an eyebrow...does it have any support yet? Maybe the NAm extrapolated? ( I can't believe the words "nam" and "extrapolated" came out of my mouth in the same sentence). Regardless there's still a threat to be watched. 72 hrs left until I give up..and 48 hrs until it has to show at least some improvements in trough axis and that darn kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For rain Yes, on this run but a storm signal has been on the GFS for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That does raise an eyebrow...does it have any support yet? Maybe the NAm extrapolated? ( I can't believe the words "nam" and "extrapolated" came out of my mouth in the same sentence). Regardless there's still a threat to be watched. 72 hrs left until I give up..and 48 hrs until it has to show at least some improvements in trough axis and that darn kicker. GFS ensembles will be useful, I normally was not so fast to toss the GFS this winter but this is now a classic pattern where the GFS tends to squash the crap out of things and it did with the last event to an extent too after showing it as a close miss initially beyond day 5....the fact the GEM got the last event before the other models too is of note. The lack of a strongly -NAO or the PV at Day 4-5 not being THAT far south into Canada argues against a total suppression as the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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