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February Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The Polar Vortex will be tilted in a manner that will pump up the SE ridge some and create a gradient pattern. These systems tend to track right over the boundary like a low pressure system moving up a stationary front. It will come down to the orientation of this boundary and climo would suggest a track well west to the lakes or south of our area.  

 

IDK maybe I'll end up being wrong, and if that's the case I'll be the first to admit it, but I stand by what I've been saying all along, This isn't going to cut.

I hope you are right but not looking good at the moment. 

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The snowmap has huge amounts for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That would be a MECS/HECS.

Those clown maps, those clown maps, those clown maps ... It is like Bozo drank some Kool Aid, and drew up the maps himself. "OOOOOOh Yeah".  "They are indescribably beautiful, it's like the fourth of July." quote from " A Christmas Story".  I'd take those maps over that stupid lamp any day.  I'd would rather watch the snow bury that ugly lamp as the inches rapidly accumulate until that beast disappears.

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What's pretty creepy about this is that the H5 map is pretty similar between this run and the 00Z ECM's map.

The weekend threat has upper NESIS scale ramifications with what it has to work with. TONS of moisture from a Miller A and cold air not lacking on the EC and couple that with a BM track, not to mention it doesnt look like a fast mover. This will indeed be week in winter weather to remember in our lives if this comes to fruition starting monday

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This is our MECS/HECS storm of the year right here paul. Ill take a driving rainstorm wednesday to cash in on this strong pornography. This has the POTENTIAL to be a crippling NESIS 4+ blizzard from DC-BOSTON

Not sure if  that`s  a full scale 12 to 24 , ( the clown maps looks pretty ) but they are just that .I think the lower end is there and is from DC to Boston . At 10 days out ,  I just like that all the ensembles see it this far out . Its possible , but 78 -93 - 96 - 2010  usually have some spacing to them , we had em 3 years apart in the 90`s maybe we can pull it off again, but a 4 maybe asking too much .

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Euro, GFS both have the aforementioned system. GFS Ensembles in great agreement for this extended range.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/f240.gif

Cold will be there and so will the moisture. This one has the ingredients for something historic if all the stars line up to so to speak john. The mid week storm will set this up nicely

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Cold will be there and so will the moisture. This one has the ingredients for something historic if all the stars line up to so to speak john. The mid week storm will set this up nicely

Ryan , not sure how old you are , but if you followed weather back  in March 2001 , you would have gotten you`re first real glimpse

of how a lock BOMB on the models  can turn into dust very quickly   . Not to mention 100`s of others since .  

I am loving that the ensembles see this and modeling is better 12 yrs later , but they are  mathematical atmospheric solutions

and sometimes they go POOF , day at a time brother .

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Ryan , not sure how old you are , but if you followed weather back in March 2001 , you would have gotten you`re first real glimpse

of how a lock BOMB on the models can turn into dust very quickly . Not to mention 100`s of others since .

I am loving that the ensembles see this and modeling is better 12 yrs later , but they are mathematical atmospheric solutions

and sometimes they go POOF , day at a time brother .

Im 27 but i remember the shear dissapointment that was march 2001. Forecasted to get 20-30" of snow and i got 7" and rain/snow. I hear you im just stoked with the possibilities and who wouldnt be. My excitement is quelled inside, by sunday/monday we'll see if this storm really does want to deliver the goods paul.

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Im 27 but i remember the shear dissapointment that was march 2001. Forecasted to get 20-30" of snow and i got 7" and rain/snow. I hear you im just stoked with the possibilities and who wouldnt be. My excitement is quelled inside, by sunday/monday we'll see if this storm really does want to deliver the goods paul.

 

Here in Philly the GFS was forecasting almost 40" of snow a few days out for March 2001, if you google it a guy in the NE forum posted a pretty cool summary of how it all played out on the models. I was just getting into following the models at that point. I'll personally NEVER forget the ETA model that went way North on Friday night before the storm, heartbreak at its finest. 24 hours out the GFS was still calling for 6-10" in Philly. People we're hanging onto the GFS because of how it crushed the ETA during the Dec 30 2000 storm. Back then the EURO only came out at 12z, and maps weren't released until around 7-8pm. 

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