wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This looks as good as can be seven days ahead for an area wide 12-18 inch snowfall. Looks like an 80 percent chance of locking in. Spot 20 inch amounts....... I bet we are already seeing the final outcome that this event takes already. The most snow scenarios will happen at all times this winter.Take a Valium and stop wish casting already. 80% chance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We haven't seen one of those in years, so I will hold my excitement for now. Those multiwave or even just overrunning transfer events where it is cold enough can be really cool -- it snows for a long time with great ratios. But there is still so much variance at such an extended range like this. Hard to get too excited. It has been a while. 1-6-94 to 2-11-94 was one of my favorite examples where we had numerous overruning events with the bulk of the blocking back near Alaska to the pole like we are seeing in the forecast next week. The key was weaker waves combined with the -EPO building strong Arctic highs keeping the low level cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It has been a while. 1-6-94 to 2-11-94 was one of my favorite examples where we had numerous overruning events with the bulk of the blocking back near Alaska to the pole like we are seeing in the forecast next week. 94.gif f180.gif Really nice analog find. I think much of this set up is going to come down to the amplitude and timing of the polar vortex and associated energy over Central Canada. The newer model runs which are showing the snowy scenarios have the PV lobe swinging southward at a favorable time to push the big ejecting shortwave southeastward and force secondary development along the baroclinic zone. The older runs had this same lobe a little more delayed, so not only was there less cold air available but the SE Ridge was able to amp up as well. The good sign is that most guidance seems to agree on the same major players being on the field. This can be a great overrunning set up for our area with lots of moisture if it is timed well. I don't buy the Euro trapping the shortwave back in the Baja, either. But we need the PV timing to be correct as mentioned above in this set up I think. Without any blocking we are relying on that to keep this from taking a warmer track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 06Z GFS has a MECS for next Tuesday to Wednesday. Never seen consistency like this before, even though the solution is slightly different on this run Vs. the 00Z GFS. You haven't been doing this very long then. We've seen modeled consistency like this at this far extended range and more often than not, end up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Really nice analog find. I think much of this set up is going to come down to the amplitude and timing of the polar vortex and associated energy over Central Canada. The newer model runs which are showing the snowy scenarios have the PV lobe swinging southward at a favorable time to push the big ejecting shortwave southeastward and force secondary development along the baroclinic zone. The older runs had this same lobe a little more delayed, so not only was there less cold air available but the SE Ridge was able to amp up as well. The good sign is that most guidance seems to agree on the same major players being on the field. This can be a great overrunning set up for our area with lots of moisture if it is timed well. I don't buy the Euro trapping the shortwave back in the Baja, either. But we need the PV timing to be correct as mentioned above in this set up I think. Without any blocking we are relying on that to keep this from taking a warmer track. Sure. The beauty of this pattern when it works out in our favor is we can get the heavy precip without a wound up storm flooding the area with warmth due to the lack of good Atlantic blocking. But the key is keeping the systems less amplified so they don't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 You haven't been doing this very long then. We've seen modeled consistency like this at this far extended range and more often than not, end up with nothing.Isn't the storm Wed/Thurs? (referring to the post you responded to...). And, agreed. It's not uncommon and thinking like that will often lead to a major letdown... Let's hope this is not one of those occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What did the euro show? Someone said south and suppressed while another said good event nw of city? Also I wouldn't fall asleep on the Monday wave.... Dude I said is was suppressed and then we talked about monday and I said it was a nice little event NW of the city per the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro ensemble keeps the signal and I like how the OP went more suppressed so when the inevitable northward shift on the OP happens the storm hopefully wont pushed the mixed precip into our area. MSLP_North32America_192.gif I'm sorry but haven't you seen enough snow this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Boo get out of this thread, nobody cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Since we're inside of a week now I thought it would be a good time to separate the threat for the middle of next week into its own thread. Should be less confusing now considering we have multiple threats over the next few weeks. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42619-february-4th-6th-over-running-and-possible-coastal-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm sorry but haven't you seen enough snow this winter? This is the kind of stuff that doesn't belong in a discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Checking the analogs down south at 120 hours 1991 seems to show up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro ensembles are consistent with a snowstorm signal and that is the best possible sign, by far, in this time range. So the fact that we are now seeing the GFS come on board (and the DGEX for kicks) is very encouraging. I am almost certain the medium range guidance will struggle with this storm tremendously. But here's a really cool image as the DGEX ends up with more than 1.00" liquid as snow for the area: That's great to see since the previous 18z DGEX run had us torching big time with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That's great to see since the previous 18z DGEX run had us torching big time with rain. Low Level Cold Is Very Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wow, even more impressive than yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The system coming the following weekend looks more like a miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z GEFS ensembles are bullish for Monday night, and cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Canadian , Miller B primary dies in the Ohio Valley , this comes off the Delmarva , fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The system coming the following weekend looks more like a miller A.we seem to have said that quite a bit this winter at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Canadian , Miller B primary dies in the Ohio Valley , this comes off the Delmarva , fwiw . We have a separate thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS mean also like the 8th-9th for more of a classic noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Day 10 Canadian , Euro ensembles say its not 1 and done , this is what `s coming behind the Day 7 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Day 10 Canadian , Euro ensembles say its not 1 and done , this is what `s coming behind the Day 7 system I would gladly take a cutter with the mid week system if we can get a beauty with that system. the weekend system holds more promise in my opinion but we will see. I remember someone saying to me yesterday that 96' had a cutter before the blizzard, I wonder who it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I would gladly take a cutter with the mid week system if we can get a beauty with that system. the weekend system holds more promise in my opinion but we will see. I remember someone saying to me yesterday that 96' had a cutter before the blizzard, I wonder who it was 2 in a row are possible but better to take 1 at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro is cutting the system for Saturday night to Detroit. A bit NW of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 2 in a row are possible Such a long time to wait though, it's not even February yet. I'm still interested in the wave before the midweek system because I think it could give us 1-3/2-4" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This looks as good as can be seven days ahead for an area wide 12-18 inch snowfall. Looks like an 80 percent chance of locking in. Spot 20 inch amounts....... I bet we are already seeing the final outcome that this event takes already. The most snow scenarios will happen at all times this winter.You should be a motivational speaker (if you're not already) Ill take climo for 2000$ and say we see solid snow in February based on the way the winter has been going as we'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 2 in a row are possible but better to take 1 at a time I would sacrifice the mid week storm gladly for this. a wrapped up Lp system like that would be pretty BIG for the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro then looks similar to the 12z GFS for the Sunday night/Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I would sacrifice the mid week storm gladly for this. a wrapped up Lp system like that would be pretty BIG for the EC The mid-week system has a lot more potential to be a more widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.