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February Forecast Discussion

REDMK6GLI

By REDMK6GLI,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

These models are a mess.. showing drastic solutions

 

We've been in 2 patterns this winter and both have given the models trouble, the split flow pattern with the trough axis from the Plains to the East which we were in during December and will be in again the next 10-14 days is always one the models have problems with...the pattern we are coming out of with the ridge over the West and trough near the East Coast is usually a pattern they handle well but this year they are not because the ridging off the East Coast has tended to be stronger than forecast causing systems to end up way closer to the coast.

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

We've been in 2 patterns this winter and both have given the models trouble, the split flow pattern with the trough axis from the Plains to the East which we were in during December and will be in again the next 10-14 days is always one the models have problems with...the pattern we are coming out of with the ridge over the West and trough near the East Coast is usually a pattern they handle well but this year they are not because the ridging off the East Coast has tended to be stronger than forecast causing systems to end up way closer to the coast.

With the new pattern, will we at least have days above 25 to around 30 for highs instead of 18-23 degree days on end. Are the balmy forty degree days consistently less than 6-7 weeks away finally ?  The sun above 30 degrees at solar noon is the only salvation right now in a very harsh cold winter.  Glad to be adding 0.25 of a degree per day of inclination.  Shadows are finally shrinking noticeably. Do you think we risk getting on the wrong side of the gradient for mixing with sleet and changing to rain for 30 percent of the events ?

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Sounds like it would be ALOT whiter solution for the coast though im not sure how much that would equate to at this time

Looks much better at 500 the ridge is sliding east by day 6.5 and the PV presses further S so on the ensemble so

This comes to the coast

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

The only thing we should really be concentrating on at this point is the strong signal for a storm in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame next week. As we move ahead in time over the next few days we can start honing in on other details. This weekend has the potential to become quite busy on the forums if the models continue to show a strong signal for a winter storm.

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

A lot of exaggeration going on in here overnight. The 0z and 6z GFS verbatim were SECS events, not MECS or HECS events. That being said, details like that are not too important this far out. Signal is there for a strong system that may cut, hit or suppress. Too many variables and too much time for them to change 100x.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The Euro ensemble keeps the signal and I like how the OP went more suppressed so 

when the inevitable northward shift on the OP happens the storm hopefully wont

pushed the mixed precip into our area.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_192.gif

 

The Euro ensembles are consistent with a snowstorm signal and that is the best possible sign, by far, in this time range. So the fact that we are now seeing the GFS come on board (and the DGEX for kicks) is very encouraging.

 

I am almost certain the medium range guidance will struggle with this storm tremendously. But here's a really cool image as the DGEX ends up with more than 1.00" liquid as snow for the area:

 

f180.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

What did the euro show? Someone said south and suppressed while another said good event nw of city?

Also I wouldn't fall asleep on the Monday wave....

 

The Euro has moderate precipitation at 138 hours but it looks to be a bit warm in the boundary layer along the coast. But it is signaling a weak coastal storm at that time.

 

The bigger storm is not only delayed past 180 hours but weak and farther south.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The Euro ensembles are consistent with a snowstorm signal and that is the best possible sign, by far, in this time range. So the fact that we are now seeing the GFS come on board (and the DGEX for kicks) is very encouraging.

 

I am almost certain the medium range guidance will struggle with this storm tremendously. But here's a really cool image as the DGEX ends up with more than 1.00" liquid as snow for the area:

 

f180.gif

 

Yeah, you can also see the GEFS on the same page with the Euro ensembles showing  a single or multi-wave overrunning event.

 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The 0z euro is exactly what you Wana see multiple weaker waves ( plenty of qpf ) that caught under the confluence

The ensembles and the European never bundled the energy

In the panhandle so it comes to EC

I agree the Monday wave is good sign that small pieces of

Energy and not one big one come out

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

The 0z euro is exactly what you Wana see multiple weaker waves ( plenty of qpf ) that caught under the confluence

The ensembles and the European never bundled the energy

In the panhandle so it comes to EC

I agree the Monday wave is good sign that small pieces of

Energy and not one big one come out

This looks as good as can be seven days ahead for an area wide 12-18 inch snowfall.  Looks like an 80 percent chance of locking in. Spot 20 inch amounts....... I bet we are already seeing the final outcome that this event takes already.  The most snow scenarios will happen at all times this winter.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Also on day 11 on the ensembles another pieces heads to Hatteras And runs to the BM

If they come every 3 days they will ride the baroclinic zone

and so far ths year a neg EPO and WPO has allowed the PV placemat In canada to keep that to our south

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The Euro ensembles are consistent with a snowstorm signal and that is the best possible sign, by far, in this time range. So the fact that we are now seeing the GFS come on board (and the DGEX for kicks) is very encouraging.

 

I am almost certain the medium range guidance will struggle with this storm tremendously. But here's a really cool image as the DGEX ends up with more than 1.00" liquid as snow for the area:

 

 

Yeah, you can also see the GEFS on the same page with the Euro ensembles showing  a single or multi-wave overrunning event.

 

We haven't seen one of those in years, so I will hold my excitement for now. Those multiwave or even just overrunning transfer events where it is cold enough can be really cool -- it snows for a long time with great ratios.

But there is still so much variance at such an extended range like this. Hard to get too excited.

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