IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This run should be archived, it's one of the all time greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This run is delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Biggest hit yet I don't like the setup, it's way too delicate. Only reason this doesn't cut on this run is because of the separation of the northern and southern streams, we get a bit more phasing and it's game over for most of us except for far NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 @HR 204. The storm ends as IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't like the setup, it's way too delicate. Only reason this doesn't cut on this run is because of the separation of the northern and southern streams, we get a bit more phasing and it's game over for most of us except for far NW areas. The storm track was down through Mississippi. I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wow @ hr189 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Did the disturbance around Day 5 play a role in a more favorable track, perhaps it weakened the SE ridging somewhat and contributed to the confluence up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Did the disturbance around Day 5 play a role in a more favorable track, perhaps it weakened the SE ridging somewhat and contributed to the confluence up north. Probably. It could seal the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 @HR 204. The storm ends as IP/ZR. Not according to what I saw, but that's when truncation occurs so I would take anything it shows past 192 with a grain of salt. The energy was much more consolidated this run and slower to develop. I had my doubts early on if we were even going to show a storm this run. Once it got going, boy did it get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Everyone is 1.5"+ QPF for the event. You do the math and figure out totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The storm track was down through Mississippi. I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. I'm taking about the upper level setup. It's in no way ideal for a major snowstorm for the metro region. Think this ends up like the December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm taking about the upper level setup. It's in no way ideal for a major snowstorm for the metro region. Think this ends up like the December storm. The storms that occurred in Feb 1994 had some ugly upper level setups, but the low level cold was able to overwhelm them. Not saying this will be the same, but you can still get a snowstorm in a less than ideal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm taking about the upper level setup. It's in no way ideal for a major snowstorm for the metro region. Think this ends up like the December storm. Actually, it supports the storm pretty well. The storm phases a little late with a piece of the PV and there's a 1028 mB HP over New England, so I'd say that this run is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The storms that occurred in Feb 1994 had some ugly upper level setups, but the low level cold was able to overwhelm them. Not saying this will be the same, but you can still get a snowstorm in a less than ideal setup. I agree, not saying it's impossible. Just not ideal. The next week of model watching will be nail-biting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Everyone is 1.5"+ QPF for the event. You do the math and figure out totals. I'm seeing about .85".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm seeing about .85".. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Seriously discussing QPF amounts with the system over a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Same here Not sure where people got 2 feet from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm seeing about .85".. Storm vista maps have the 1"+ contour north of KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Actually, it supports the storm pretty well. The storm phases a little late with a piece of the PV and there's a 1028 mB HP over New England, so I'd say that this run is a win. Yes, but we can't rely on a late phase 180 hrs out to give us the outcome we want. Slight timing difference and it phases in early with a piece of the PV, and the result is not so good anymore. All I'm saying is that there's more or less an equal chance of this storm being a SECS/MECS or an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Seriously discussing QPF amounts with the system over a week away. Because people were throwing out much higher amounts which isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This run just followed the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have to see the Euro trend to something similar before thinking the 0z gfs is even legit. The Euro can often perform much better than the gfs in these massive, juiced up systems, which is something we haven't had to deal with so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Because people were throwing out much higher amounts which isn't even close. Yeah true, but if this setup really unfolded as the gfs played out then I doubt anyone around here would see less than an inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have to see the Euro trend to something similar before thinking the 0z gfs is even legit. The Euro can often perform much better than the gfs in these massive, juiced up systems, which is something we haven't had to deal with so far this winter. I have to see them showing this inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Its also very cold with more snow chances through mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Its also very cold with more snow chances through mid month Yeah until the EPO completely breaks the cold and snow chances will continue. A 40" winter is practically a lock for NYC, and I honestly see no reason why they can't get near 50" before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM finally woke up and lost the cutter. Primary to Alabama and a miller B off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah until the EPO completely breaks the cold and snow chances will continue. A 40" winter is practically a lock for NYC, and I honestly see no reason why they can't get near 50" before it's all said and done. If this all comes to fruition I'll be ready for spring in another 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM finally woke up and lost the cutter. Primary to Alabama and a miller B off the NJ coast. That's most likely Heavy Icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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