PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is the DAY 11 Control , this comes off Hatteras and looks like this at the BM . The Ensembles have the SAME look but I chose the Control . The Ensembles have a day 11 block and slows the system down between Hatteras to the BM . So if the 1st mid week system cuts ( the ensembles says it doesn't ) , this is what`s left behind , that would fit the 78 and 96 scenario we talked about earlier . The Euro is seeing some real deepening along the EC at this time . I realize Operational and Control runs are a crude macro view of patterns but I chose this because it`s not smoothed out . The Ensembles looks similar .Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is the DAY 11 Control , this comes off Hatteras and looks like this at the BM . The Ensembles have the SAME look but I chose the Control . The Ensembles have a day 11 block and slows the system down between Hatteras to the BM . So if the 1st mid week system cuts ( the ensembles says it doesn't ) , this is what`s left behind , that would fit the 78 and 96 scenario we talked about earlier . The Euro is seeing some real deepening along the EC at this time . I realize Operational and Control runs are a crude macro view of patterns but I chose this because it`s not smoothed out . The Ensembles looks similar .Good Luck Hows the control looking like for 360? Is the PV near James Bay or further west toward the Canadian Prairies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS looking good so far... nice CAD signature at HR 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still looking good. A lot better then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snow at 180. Looks like a transfer is about to happen off the Del Marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ton better then 12z. H5 is a lot different, more confluence up north, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS looking good so far... nice CAD signature at HR 168. Would likely result in a cutter verbatim. The PV splits and allows a route for the storm to cut inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still need the PV to be a little more south, but I like were we are currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Would likely result in a cutter verbatim. The PV splits and allows a route for the storm to cut inland. The primary held on but I have no clue why. The GFS was trying to transfer and should have. This was a step in the right direction. Much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hows the control looking like for 360? Is the PV near James Bay or further west toward the Canadian Prairies? Will look when I get to CN the ensembles are cold coast to coast day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS ( hr183) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The primary held on but I have no clue why. The GFS was trying to transfer and should have. This was a step in the right direction. Much better than 12z. Wait for the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The primary hangs on for no reason, it looks like a secondary was gonna pop off the delmarva but all the energy goes back to the primary. Lol good trend now wait for the ensembles, the ensembles had the same idea with a coastal transfer off the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Epic hit Your enthusiasm... I like it brother! That GFS image does look sexy or should i say MECS+ If the cold air transfer and we get a HP to the north. Edited the wink out since some are getting burt hurt thinking im being intimate haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wouldn't say epic but much better than 12z. Nearly 2" of qpf, at least 2/3 of that is not snow and much of it is probably rain (for the coast/cities) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nearly 2" of qpf, at least 2/3 of that is not snow and much of it is probably rain (for the coast/cities) Front end thump to rain for the coast. Inland areas hold on longer to the cold air. Not the final solution. Expect about 1000000 more solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS ( hr183) A good sign too see the system there at 183 hrs. Lots of runs to go tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A Miller B transfer would be the best case scenario, would like a stronger high to the north and the PV further south. It's probably unlikely but not impossible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A Miller B transfer would be the best case scenario, would like a stronger high to the north and the PV further south. It's probably unlikely but not impossible I guess.. Unlikely? both the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing this, the OP RUNS have people going into weenie suicide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wish a snowstorm happens on my day off. I hate driving in the snow. One thing this year that has been PLEASURE is the snow has fallen on my day off ever since i started working at King Kullen Grocery Co. In 2003, it is great to just wake up plow and just enjoy the snowstorms for once anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing this year that has been PLEASURE is the snow has fallen on my day off ever since i started working at King Kullen Grocery Co. In 2003, it is great to just wake up plow and just enjoy the snowstorms for once anthony I bet. I love King Kullen. Great place to shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will look when I get to CN the ensembles are cold coast to coast day 15. Thanks. The huge block near Alaska really means business with the cross polar flow and strong Arctic high sliding south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 . Unlikely? both the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing this, the OP RUNS have people going into weenie suicide The storm is 200 hrs out literally anything can happen, esp in this pattern. But it is good that both main globals are showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The ridge that just keeps on going. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The storm is 200 hrs out literally anything can happen, esp in this pattern. But it is good that both main globals are showing it. as we have discovered this winter - models are having a hard time within 24 hours of an event - 200 hours is pure fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The ridge that just keeps on going. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Yea it looks like they will get some precip the next few days but then nothing again...not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The storm is 200 hrs out literally anything can happen, esp in this pattern. But it is good that both main globals are showing it. I'm very confident this storm is happening. It's not just a fluke fantasy storm, but the fun will be determining what will happen. I'm going cutter, but I do hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GEFS mean looking great through hr 168. Snow moving in by that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Low tracks over the Deep South and then off the mid-Atlantic coast, and it's colder than the op. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yea it looks like they will get some precip the next few days but then nothing again...not good Check out how much of the Siberian cold gets drained through cross polar into NOAM the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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