Dsnowx53 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The large PV lobe is splitting, which allows a large chunk to go to the southwest, which buckles the flow to much and seems to even lead to some phasing. This will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think this bears watching, it's been the subtle shortwaves that have crept up on us this winter. A lot of the time, our big events come from storms that don't get much attention until within 80 hours or so, when they suddenly "come out of nowhere" per say. Usually it's a storm that was projected to go out to sea, but suddenly models begin depicting westward solutions. IMO There is simply way too much that can change with storms beyond 100 hours. 100+ hour guidance can be good for looking at patterns/storminess, but at this point it absolutely should not matter what track this storm takes. It's good that the models are continually showing this storm, and that's all that you really can take from this for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yup, it was easy to see early. She cuts to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The large PV lobe is splitting, which allows a large chunk to go to the southwest, which buckles the flow to much and seems to even lead to some phasing. This will cut. Yup, some people can't handle the truth though the massive variability likely means they'll be a lot of run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The large PV lobe is splitting, which allows a large chunk to go to the southwest, which buckles the flow to much and seems to even lead to some phasing. This will cut. So you think a cutter is the end result of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A lot of the time, our big events come from storms that don't get much attention until within 80 hours or so, when they suddenly "come out of nowhere" per say. Usually it's a storm that was projected to go out to sea, but suddenly models begin depicting westward solutions. IMO There is simply way too much that can change with storms beyond 100 hours. 100+ hour guidance can be good for looking at patterns/storminess, but at this point it absolutely should not matter what track this storm takes. It's good that the models are continually showing this storm, and that's all that you really can take from this for now. I disagree. Most of our storms are sniffed out by the models at least a week or 10 days in advance. They might waffle back and forth, particularly the GFS which will almost always suppress the storm too far to the south. The details might not be ironed out until 48-72 hours out but last week's 'out of nowhere' storm is not the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snow up to Philly by hour 180, low pressure over northern LA. Funny how Boxing Day had the LP just south of New Orleans before it turned up the coast. I guess there is a big difference between having the LP over Northern LA or Southern LA as to whether we stay cold enough or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Funny how Boxing Day had the LP just south of New Orleans before it turned up the coast. I guess there is a big difference between having the LP over Northern LA or Southern LA as to whether we stay cold enough or not. Boxing Day was a completely different animal. That was a noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So you think a cutter is the end result of this storm? He's just reading what the model depicts. I doubt anybody could have enough confidence to say that with any certainty at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Funny how Boxing Day had the LP just south of New Orleans before it turned up the coast. I guess there is a big difference between having the LP over Northern LA or Southern LA as to whether we stay cold enough or not. Cannot compare the situations. Totally different patterns. Low placement means little in different patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This should all still be fun to track though, so much better than just cold and dry. Maybe we'll get a miracle if we're lucky. We still have today's system, SB system, then the big storm next week, and then plenty more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Funny how Boxing Day had the LP just south of New Orleans before it turned up the coast. I guess there is a big difference between having the LP over Northern LA or Southern LA as to whether we stay cold enough or not.No. It has more to do with blocking, trough positioning, phasing etc etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Boxing Day was a completely different animal. That was a noreaster. So this is not a Miller A? Didn't Boxing Day originate its moisture from Mexico as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lets hope the euro ensemble mean is still further east. An amped up system like the OP is showing is a no go for us without good Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So this is not a Miller A? Didn't Boxing Day originate its moisture from Mexico as well? Totally different set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So this is not a Miller A? Didn't Boxing Day originate its moisture from Mexico as well? No. It has more to do with blocking, trough positioning, phasing etc etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Cannot compare the situations. Totally different patterns. Low placement means little in different patterns. I should have rephrased what I said. I meant to say how different SLP positions in the Deep South correlate to us receiving rainstorms, icestorms or snowstorms as the end result, This does not imply causation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So this is not a Miller A? Didn't Boxing Day originate its moisture from Mexico as well? Its not Miller A vs. Miller B. A low can be over northern LA and track East/NE through the South and off the midatlantic coast and still give us snow but would not be a coastal storm like Boxing Day. This storm is headed north northeast which is why it would cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I should have rephrased what I said. I meant to say how different SLP positions in the Deep South correlate to us receiving rainstorms, icestorms or snowstorms as the end result, This does not imply causation of course. It really doesn't. It depends on where the storm goes from where it is in LA. A storm around New Orleans won't always give us snow if it doesn't turn up the coast and a storm over Northern LA won't always be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I should have rephrased what I said. I meant to say how different SLP positions in the Deep South correlate to us receiving rainstorms, icestorms or snowstorms as the end result, This does not imply causation of course. It doesn't. It's all about the pattern. You need blocking or some mechanism to keep the storm from cutting to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Its not Miller A vs. Miller B. A low can be over northern LA and track East/NE through the South and off the midatlantic coast and still give us snow but would not be a coastal storm like Boxing Day. This storm is headed north northeast which is why it would cut. It really doesn't. It depends on where the storm goes from where it is in LA. A storm around New Orleans won't always give us snow if it doesn't turn up the coast and a storm over Northern LA won't always be rain. It doesn't. It's all about the pattern. You need blocking or some mechanism to keep the storm from cutting to the west. Gotcha, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I should have rephrased what I said. I meant to say how different SLP positions in the Deep South correlate to us receiving rainstorms, icestorms or snowstorms as the end result, This does not imply causation of course. Understood, weather is crazy and rarely does the same identical thing twice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gotcha, thanks. No problem. I learn something new every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We want the flatter less amped 500 mb evolution of 0z so the SE Ridge doesn't get pumped up. It's pretty typical for the OP euro to move the PV around a lot in Canada day 8-10 from run to run. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Understood, weather is crazy and rarely does the same identical thing twice lol. Yeah, definitely. Here at work, I got really euphoric when YanksFan mentioned that this was coming from the Rio Grande and was very amplified. I thought an epic solution was coming with the STJ involved big time like Boxing Day. Of course, in all seriousness, I think YanksFan is still an insightful poster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, definitely. Here at work, I got really euphoric when YanksFan mentioned that this was coming from the Rio Grande and was very amplified. I thought an epic solution was coming with the STJ involved big time like Boxing Day. Of course, in all seriousness, I think YanksFan is still an insightful poster here. When you hear "very amplified" over the south central states and we have no blocking and you hear " the trough is going negative" it's a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 When you hear "very amplified" over the south central states and we have no blocking and you hear " the trough is going negative" it's a cutter 78 had something similar I believe. Big ohio valley blizzard and then the big east coast storm (2/6-7). Not sure how far apart the storms were but I know its been talked about alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 78 had something similar I believe. Big ohio valley blizzard and then the big east coast storm (2/6-7). Not sure how far apart the storms were but I know its been talked about alot 78 - 96 both a week or so b4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We want the flatter less amped 500 mb evolution of 0z so the SE Ridge doesn't get pumped up. It's pretty typical for the OP euro to move the PV around a lot in Canada day 8-10 from run to run. 0z OLd.gif 12z Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif Those 12z Euro Ensembles will very be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 78 had something similar I believe. Big ohio valley blizzard and then the big east coast storm (2/6-7). Not sure how far apart the storms were but I know its been talked about alot The Ohio Valley blizzard occurred on January 26-27, 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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