Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good sign that the GEFS don't agree with the OP. Model mayhem for sure with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 192 coastal over the benchmark, area getting plastered, some cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm curious, what did the previous GEFS show? The same as this one, they haven't waivered in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The same as this one, they haven't waivered in days. They weren't further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good sign that the GEFS don't agree with the OP. Model mayhem for sure with this pattern The 18z GFS will come south again just like yesterday. These system always ride the gradient. A cutter makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They weren't further south? Just went back and checked for you, the low is over Alabama on both the 06z and 12z GEFS means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS Ensemble mean takes the surface low from OC MD directly over the 40/70 BM at Days 5-7. But at 186 hours it is easy to see a big split in the spaghetti plots with two distinct scenarios. One takes the surface low west into the OV similar to the OP, while the other is offshore and nearly a perfect track for a significant winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just went back and checked for you, the low is over Alabama on both the 06z and 12z GEFS means. Ok fair enough. I'm still riding with my logic though. Perhaps the week after could be a lot more favorable, but don't think this storm will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The same as this one, they haven't waivered in days. That sounds similar to another consistency we've had with the GEFS. I think it was with the BDB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Many of these individual members are showing KU events: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the way this winter has been going id go with hr 72. Winter storm forecasting is a challenging as it gets. During the warm season if you miss on .5 inch or rain either way it's really no big deal. But missing that with frozen P-types involved is a big deal. That's why it's tough to pull the trigger on snow details much past 24-72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We probably shouldn't get too worked up either way on storm details especially after 120 hrs. So many of our events shape up under 120 or even 72 to make guessing a low probability exercise. The best we can ask for long range is an interesting looking pattern with potential if things break in our favor. I strongly agree. While the solution on the 12z operational GFS is plausible, the colder solutions on the 0z ECMWF or the recent runs of the GFS ensembles are also plausible. What one can be increasingly confident about--though it's still no slam dunk--is the idea that there could be a moderate to high qpf event in the extended range. Details will need to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 18z GFS will come south again just like yesterday. These system always ride the gradient. A cutter makes no sense. Can I ask why? Provide reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS Ensemble mean takes the surface low from OC MD directly over the 40/70 BM at Days 5-7. But at 186 hours it is easy to see a big split in the spaghetti plots with two distinct scenarios. One takes the surface low west into the OV similar to the OP, while the other is offshore and nearly a perfect track for a significant winter storm here. So 2 very plausible scenarios. Both are on the table this far out and nobody should be dismissing either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS Ensemble mean takes the surface low from OC MD directly over the 40/70 BM at Days 5-7. But at 186 hours it is easy to see a big split in the spaghetti plots with two distinct scenarios. One takes the surface low west into the OV similar to the OP, while the other is offshore and nearly a perfect track for a significant winter storm here. A few of the 00z GEFS members that too the system to the Ohio Valley popped miller B's. Looks like some of the 12z GEFS members show the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can I ask why? Provide reasoning. A pig -EPO and a declining AO is a big reason why. Both mute the influence of the SE Ridge occurring due to the +NAO/-PNA couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A pig -EPO and a declining AO is a big reason why. Both mute the influence of the SE Ridge occurring due to the +NAO/-PNA couplet. We've seen cutters happen with those teleconnections. Be careful with the GEFS mean. Some big cutters in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can I ask why? Provide reasoning. Because it doesn't show snow for NYC, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can I ask why? Provide reasoning. The Polar Vortex will be tilted in a manner that will pump up the SE ridge some and create a gradient pattern. These systems tend to track right over the boundary like a low pressure system moving up a stationary front. It will come down to the orientation of this boundary and climo would suggest a track well west to the lakes or south of our area. IDK maybe I'll end up being wrong, and if that's the case I'll be the first to admit it, but I stand by what I've been saying all along, This isn't going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We've seen cutters happen with those teleconnections. Be careful with the GEFS mean. Some big cutters in there too. Not saying a cutter is off the table but saying it's a certainty and no other solution is plausible or one solution is more plausible than another is absurd. Many folks here are doing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Many of these individual members are showing KU events: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.gif Lets hope we can get it to verify now john. Would LOVE to send winter off with something memorable for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Polar Vortex will be tilted in a manner that will pump up the SE ridge some and create a gradient pattern. These systems tend to track right over the boundary like a low pressure system moving up a stationary front. It will come down to the orientation of this boundary and climo would suggest a track well west to the lakes or south of our area. IDK maybe I'll end up being wrong, and if that's the case I'll be the first to admit it, but I stand by what I've been saying all along, This isn't going to cut. I agree with your reasoning. We have enough favorability in some of the indices to make your assertion as plausible as any other prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Polar Vortex will be tilted in a manner that will pump up the SE ridge some and create a gradient pattern. These systems tend to track right over the boundary like a low pressure system moving up a stationary front. It will come down to the orientation of this boundary and climo would suggest a track well west to the lakes or south of our area. You speak in definitive terms and that is a huge problem for forecasting. What you're looking at is a forecast by an operational model. And what you have to understand is that these models are for guidance. There is no way you can say for sure that the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, whatever will have the correct depiction of the Polar Vortex at this range and the tilt/orientation of it can change in 24 hours. And then suddenly the entire basis of your forecast is wrong. Common sense tells us that there will be a gradient developing as the Polar Vortex retreats, the Southeast Ridge amplifies, and a trough swings down into the SW United States. But what is to say that the Polar Vortex can't retreat farther north? What makes you so sure that the warm air advection can't push northward, that the surface low can't strengthen in the Western Arklatex along a frontal zone and then cut inland? There is minimal blocking. I'm not forecasting any specific outcome at this range, just trying to make a point. You can't say anything definitive at this range -- the best idea is to use ensemble guidance and spaghetti plots to try and observe the trends moving forward and get the best idea as to where we're headed. This could still be a blizzard for Chicago or a KU for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 12z GGEM has at least consolidated the system down to once low. Then it tracks from southern Arkansas right up the spine of the Apps to western Maryland. Unlikely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lets hope we can get it to verify now john. Would LOVE to send winter off with something memorable for all of us Send it off? With the -EPO continually rebuilding, we could have lots more winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We probably shouldn't get too worked up either way on storm details especially after 120 hrs. So many of our events shape up under 120 or even 72 to make guessing a low probability exercise. The best we can ask for long range is an interesting looking pattern with potential if things break in our favor. I think, as you said earlier, that a lot depends on where the baroclinic zone ends up after the storm this weekend. The one thing can be deemed as "exciting" is the fact that all of the models are now agreeing on a major precipitation event across much of the Northeast US. But it is simply way too early to begin discussing details. If I was hedging my bets, however, I would argue currently for the bulk of frozen precipitation to be to north and west of the city, potentially in Southern New England. These big energetic shortwave ejecting from the southwest US always give me a pit in my stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You speak in definitive terms and that is a huge problem for forecasting. What you're looking at is a forecast by an operational model. And what you have to understand is that these models are for guidance. There is no way you can say for sure that the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, whatever will have the correct depiction of the Polar Vortex at this range and the tilt/orientation of it can change in 24 hours. And then suddenly the entire basis of your forecast is wrong. Common sense tells us that there will be a gradient developing as the Polar Vortex retreats, the Southeast Ridge amplifies, and a trough swings down into the SW United States. But what is to say that the Polar Vortex can't retreat farther north? What makes you so sure that the warm air advection can't push northward, that the surface low can't strengthen in the Western Arklatex along a frontal zone and then cut inland? There is minimal blocking. I'm not forecasting any specific outcome at this range, just trying to make a point. You can't say anything definitive at this range -- the best idea is to use ensemble guidance and spaghetti plots to try and observe the trends moving forward and get the best idea as to where we're headed. This could still be a blizzard for Chicago or a KU for all of us. I understand all of your points, I just think at this time the majority of the guidance points away from a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 12z GGEM has at least consolidated the system down to once low. Then it tracks from southern Arkansas right up the spine of the Apps to western Maryland. Unlikely scenario. The GGEM has depicted more Apps runners the last 3 or 4 winters that haven't verified than any other model it seems lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Many of these individual members are showing KU events: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.g All the maps show a tremendous area of confluence just south of Greenland near or just north of the Canadian Maritimes and stretching west across much of Canada. This supports arctic high pressure locked in over Ontario and Quebec and a more suppressed storm track, not a cutter. The maps which show the cutters show (I think in error) high pressure over Greenland retreating and the confluence breaking down slightly, but not enough to really buy these solutions. I think we will see more suppressed/benchmark solutions as we move forward, though I would not be shocked if the Euro threw a cutter at us on today's 12Z run. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Send it off? With the -EPO continually rebuilding, we could have lots more winter left. I got to be more careful with my wording. Meant as far as met winter goes (dec.-feb.) wolf. who knows with the -EPO pretty much making its home the 2013-14 winter we may go into march still with winter storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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