IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 u did not get 10.7 inches. i have family that lives in pompton plains. they didnt even get 6. I'm not even going to entertain your argument, go bark up someone else's tree. I asked you why comparisons to 94 is ridiculous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am not sure why people bother looking at the GFS OP runs beyond a few days into the future for storm details anyway. Agreed, it's absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sorry paul shouldve said it would be nice to get a kahuna like those but the comparison you gave bought like to the situation we'll be in next week most likely All good brother , one op run , not gona rule 8 days out . Im still working on my possible 2 tonite . will worry about tomorrow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't remember one time the models showed a cutter only to trend to an east coast storm. If they show a cutter, we're screwed just like for the SB storm. The Euro showed it cutting and the gfs followed and it makes sense with the NAO getting up to +1 and beyond really strengthening that SE ridge. The one shot we have is if we see a wave develop after the weekend storm cuts. Your reasoning makes no sense. The GEFS are coming out now and will show what they've been showing for days, a track well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1/27/11 We had a blocking pattern. If I saw the gfs cutting storm in the long range and we had a nice -NAO and block, then I would think that run is suspect. In this case, we don't have that so the chance of a storm cutting is much, much greater. I'm curious to see what the response will be if the Euro follows the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1/27/11 That's one of hundreds of examples if not thousands. I've been watching these models for 13+ years and lost count on how many times something like that happened years ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agreed, it's absurd. If the Euro ensemble comes west, then I will be worried. But we are still too early in the game to know what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We had a blocking pattern. If I saw the gfs cutting storm in the long range and we had a nice -NAO and block, then I would think that run is suspect. In this case, we don't have that so the chance of a storm cutting is much, much greater. I'm curious to see what the response will be if the Euro follows the gfs. If you take a look at the ensemble guidance, and the rest of the guidance for that matter, omitting today's 12z op run, you'll see that a cutter is an outlier solution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We had a blocking pattern. If I saw the gfs cutting storm in the long range and we had a nice -NAO and block, then I would think that run is suspect. In this case, we don't have that so the chance of a storm cutting is much, much greater. I'm curious to see what the response will be if the Euro follows the gfs. It's impossible for a blocking pattern, even if it is transient, to still develop in time for the storm we're discussing? That seems to be quite closed-minded. It is also not necessary to have blocking for this storm to avoid cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can you guys take the penis measuring to another room? A comment sig worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's one of hundreds of examples if not thousands. I've been watching these models for 13+ years and lost count on how many times something like that happened years ago lol. Yeah, and this is 180 hours out +. Don't know why people are in the state of mind, "Once a cutter, always a cutter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If you take a look at the ensemble guidance, and the rest of the guidance for that matter, omitting today's 12z op run, you'll see that a cutter is an outlier solution at this time. Alright well we'll just see then, but I don't see it becoming an outlier for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If you take a look at the ensemble guidance, and the rest of the guidance for that matter, omitting today's 12z op run, you'll see that a cutter is an outlier solution at this time. But it's an outcome that can happen, and I suspect will happen if we have a strong trough and a SE ridge, with no blocking even with a good EPO. That would probably save interior areas from going to plain rain because of the amount of low level cold air, but for big snow that's a pattern that favors the Midwest and NNE. If we have a weaker trough or more blocking, we will all have a better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, and this is 180 hours out +. Don't know why people are in the state of mind, "Once a cutter, always a cutter". Agree it's so unsubstantiated to make comments like that this far out in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Alright well we'll just see then, but I don't see it becoming an outlier for too long. Don Sutherland's latest post in the medium-range thread in the main forum should highly encourage every pessimist in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 To me the pattern after the storm at Day 7-8 gets better, there are indications we may go back more to the trof being further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, and this is 180 hours out +. Don't know why people are in the state of mind, "Once a cutter, always a cutter". There's such a huge range to where a storm can cut, it can cut through the lakes, it can go up to Albany, it can even go right over us and the outcome will still be the same, mostly rain. The storm has to be fully S&E of us for it to be snow, and there is very little room for error when you're playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I really would not start trusting one GFS run of this storm cutting, right now. Keep in mind that over the past few WEEKS even, the GFS has altered it's course DAILY....not just 50 mile shifts west and east with storms, but entire changes of patterns! Meaning that the GFS has literally shifted west and east over 500 miles from one run to the next! It has showed cold pattern, then warm pattern, cold pattern, warm pattern, yesterday cold pattern, and now.....Also keep in mind where we have ended up for the most part. What type of pattern? I would not worry yet....I'm sure the next run it'll show a snow storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 First things first, the 12z GEFS mean has some light snow for game time on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We probably shouldn't get too worked up either way on storm details especially after 120 hrs. So many of our events shape up under 120 or even 72 to make guessing a low probability exercise. The best we can ask for long range is an interesting looking pattern with potential if things break in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There's such a huge range to where a storm can cut, it can cut through the lakes, it can go up to Albany, it can even go right over us and the outcome will still be the same, mostly rain. The storm has to be fully S&E of us for it to be snow, and there is very little room for error when you're playing with fire. Right, but if it cuts more east we'll at least get more overrunning snows. The pattern over the next week or so supports overrunning events then change to rain, but not full-time cutters unless we had a decent +NAO and a major SE ridge, which the GFS, for one run, shows. GFS as 6z was snowstorm. Heck, even with this weeks storm, the models were shifting up to 300-400 miles on individual runs inside 72 hours! What I'm saying is you shouldn't be 100% confident that the storm ends up being a big time cutter the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Now for the second system, the GEFS mean doesn't delay the northern stream from dropping in like the op did and the result is the low developing much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 To me the pattern after the storm at Day 7-8 gets better, there are indications we may go back more to the trof being further east. I read Don S. post and I agree that the February 8-15 period is probably our best chance at a significant snow event but it's way out there and a lot can change. I still feel good for us getting at least one more widespread 6"+ storm before the winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 174 heavy snow, low is much weaker and over Alabama, shocker I know, oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 186 coastal taking over east of Ocean City, MD, area getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Now for the second system, the GEFS mean doesn't delay the northern stream from dropping in like the op did and the result is the low developing much further south. Surprised how many are taking the GFS post 150 hrs seriously or atleast giving it credit. Its known to waver with drastically different solutions randomly outside of 92 hours. Although in a period where there is +NAO and SE ridge that is in play a cutter should always be considered a possibility, albeit next week not a lakes cutter more like it passing just to north or over us with the PV orientation. Patience should be a main stay until SB sunday or monday when we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 174 heavy snow, low is much weaker and over Alabama, shocker I know, oh wait. Coming from a smoothed ensemble mean, this speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We probably shouldn't get too worked up either way on storm details especially after 120 hrs. So many of our events shape up under 120 or even 72 to make guessing a low probability exercise. The best we can ask for long range is an interesting looking pattern with potential if things break in our favor. the way this winter has been going id go with hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I read Don S. post and I agree that the February 8-15 period is probably our best chance at a significant snow event but it's way out there and a lot can change. I still feel good for us getting at least one more widespread 6"+ storm before the winter is over. What people too young to remember don't know is the 2/8 event was supposed to be 2-4" at best and anyone in that heavy band got 8-12". Friday 2/11 looked like 4-8" of snow followed by freezing rain and instead 12-18" fell over a relatively small area. The chances of a widespread HECS might be low but some areas can do quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 174 heavy snow, low is much weaker and over Alabama, shocker I know, oh wait. I'm curious, what did the previous GEFS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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