PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0z Euro ensembles look to be doing a good job with its representation of EC ridging during the 2nd thru the 5th Both storms now cut on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 186 we all flip to heavy rain from KSWF south. Just too much of a SE ridge to overcome. This isn't our pattern, but we've had a good winter regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS back to the same crap that it had yesterday at 12z. The ensembles have been so much more consistent. The later phasing in of the northern stream really screws the pooch this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0z Euro ensembles look to be doing a good job with its representation of EC ridging during the 2nd thru the 5th Both storms now cut on the GFS Right now, I'd lean toward cutters or at least outcomes where there's a lot of rain/ice with stronger systems like shown now. Without blocking, we're toast in such a scenario. Of course, there's over a week for things to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 189 heavy rain continues, Snow line up to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right now, I'd lean toward cutters or at least outcomes where there's a lot of rain/ice with stronger systems like shown now. Without blocking, we're toast in such a scenario. Of course, there's over a week for things to shift. The ensemble means have been very consistent and have yet to show anything that even resembles a cutter with this storm. Until that changes I wouldn't even consider a cutter a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hr 192 very heavy rain continues before the truncation flip occurs. Sub 996 over Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 2-3" of QPF before truncation occurs at hours 192-204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Keeping my eye on this THE 0000 UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 0000 UTC GFS IN PUSHING THIS WEEKEND`S COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS REGARDING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right now, I'd lean toward cutters or at least outcomes where there's a lot of rain/ice with stronger systems like shown now. Without blocking, we're toast in such a scenario. Of course, there's over a week for things to shift. Agreed and once models lock in a cutter, it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I just went back and checked the 00z GEFS individual members, only two had a true cutter. Most of the members that showed a similar track to the 12z GFS op pop a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right now, I'd lean toward cutters or at least outcomes where there's a lot of rain/ice with stronger systems like shown now. Without blocking, we're toast in such a scenario. Of course, there's over a week for things to shift. The pattern gets better week 2 , the CFSV2 ( you can see in its 5 days increments ) the GFS ensembles and Euro Ensembles all agree week 2 and 3 are much better . Too much ridge on the SE coast week 1 . I said this yesterday in the 2 winters of 78 and 96 both in the middle of cold periods , a storm cut to the lakes a week before the huge EC blizzards . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The following weekend looks good for a possible repeat performance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feel free to hold me too it at a later date, this is not going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The pattern gets better week 2 , the CFSV2 ( you can see in its 5 days increments ) the GFS ensembles and Euro Ensembles all agree week 2 and 3 are much better . Too much ridge on the SE coast week 1 . I said this yesterday in the 2 winters of 78 and 96 both in the middle of cold periods , a storm cut to the lakes a week before the huge EC blizzards . Doubt we get epic blizzards of legendary status like those two kahunas but you do bring up a good point. Most times you have to give some to get some down the line. Atleast the following week one thing the EC will not lack is dense arctic/ siberian air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agreed and once models lock in a cutter, it sticks. Not always true. The amount and degree of ridging near the pole and Greenland will be key. If that strengthens in future runs, the storm's track will shift south. There would likely be a primary that starts to cut and then has to redevelop. There will be tons of cold air available for somebody, but we need help here to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feel free to hold me too it at a later date, this is not going to cut. The GFS track makes no sense, lows do not take the track it shows, either they go well south or well west and in this setup it cannot go well west...of course at this range the GFS never can see the impact an arctic high like that has...usually it does not start catching on til inside 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 where are all those idiots that keep referencing 1994. lake cutter this week, lake cutter next week. awful One run with a cutter and now this is locked in? What about the Euro? What about the last 3 GFS op runs? What about the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The GFS track makes no sense, lows do not take the track it shows, either they go well south or well west and in this setup it cannot go well west...of course at this range the GFS never can see the impact an arctic high like that has...usually it does not start catching on til inside 96 hours The GFS pulled this crap yesterday at 12z and the ensemble mean was well south, then the GFS corrected at 18z. I suspect we will see a repeat of that today. This storm just crossed the truncation barrier so that might have something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One run with a cutter and now this is locked in? What about the Euro? What about the last 3 GFS op runs? What about the ensembles? of course not, but everyone saying 1994 crap is ridiculous. just as ridiculous as your 10.7 inches u said u got last big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They blame weenies for latching on to one run if it shows snow but now that it shows a cutter its 100% going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doubt we get epic blizzards of legendary status like those two kahunas but you do bring up a good point. Most times you have to give some to get some down the line. Atleast the following week one thing the EC will not lack is dense arctic/ siberian air Not callin for a blizzard , just alluding to the fact in 2 great cold winters storms cut in the middle of cold periods just so happened both times there were EC storms . File it , dont expect it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 of course not, but everyone saying 1994 crap is ridiculous. just as ridiculous as your 10.7 inches u said u got last big storm. The biggest difference from 2/1994 is the vortex is just not as massive over Hudson Bay, as a result I think any gradient sets up north of where it setup that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 of course not, but everyone saying 1994 crap is ridiculous. just as ridiculous as your 10.7 inches u said u got last big storm. Why is it ridiculous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They blame weenies for latching on to one run if it shows snow but now that it shows a cutter its 100% going to happen? This and anyone saying once a cutter shows up on a model run it never changes is a bigger weenie than someone saying that every storm in the winter is going to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One run with a cutter and now this is locked in? What about the Euro? What about the last 3 GFS op runs? What about the ensembles? I don't remember one time the models showed a cutter only to trend to an east coast storm. If they show a cutter, we're screwed just like for the SB storm. The Euro showed it cutting and the gfs followed and it makes sense with the NAO getting up to +1 and beyond really strengthening that SE ridge. The one shot we have is if we see a wave develop after the weekend storm cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Why is it ridiculous? u did not get 10.7 inches. i have family that lives in pompton plains. they didnt even get 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't remember one time the models showed a cutter only to trend to an east coast storm. If they show a cutter, we're screwed just like for the SB storm. The Euro showed it cutting and the gfs followed and it makes sense with the NAO getting up to +1 and beyond really strengthening that SE ridge. The one shot we have is if we see a wave develop after the weekend storm cuts. 1 recent example doesn't make this obsevation accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't remember one time the models showed a cutter only to trend to an east coast storm. If they show a cutter, we're screwed just like for the SB storm. The Euro showed it cutting and the gfs followed and it makes sense with the NAO getting up to +1 and beyond really strengthening that SE ridge. The one shot we have is if we see a wave develop after the weekend storm cuts. 1/27/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not callin for a blizzard , just alluding to the fact in 2 great cold winters storms cut in the middle of cold periods just so happened both times there were EC storms . File it , dont expect it . Sorry paul shouldve said it would be nice to get a kahuna like those but the comparison you gave bought like to the situation we'll be in next week most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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