IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. That will be fun to skate across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. Uhh, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. I would take driving heavy rain over an ice storm. Unless you like to lose power and have absolutely terrible driving conditions. Snow or rain for me none of that ice storm stuff for me, no thank you! But like your last post said the ECMWF and GFS have been pretty consistent with making this a cold storm with mostly snow for our area so it looks promising thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The whole forecast hinges on a weak wave overrunning storm like 2-11-94. Anything with more amplitude is going to have mixing problems here. 1994 was all about a weak storm with no real blocking necessary. A more wound up system will disappoint like you mentioned. 94.gif 021118.png The Euro and GFS certainly have different evolutions. The GFS likes an energetic piece ejecting in one solid storm filled with a ton of moisture. With the Euro's PV orientation, it helps to favor the development of a coastal system while maintaining cold air drainage in our area. The GFS setup aloft is screaming more of a SWFE in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Uhh, no thanks. What would you care? They don't have any above ground power lines in mid-town do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What would you care? They don't have any above ground power lines in mid-town do they? Screws up the entire transit infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Screws up the entire transit infrastructure. Eh, I'm not wishing this on anyone but seeing NYC fall to its knees because of an ice storm does have a wow factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Euro and GFS certainly have different evolutions. The GFS likes an energetic piece ejecting in one solid storm filled with a ton of moisture. With the Euro's PV orientation, it helps to favor the development of a coastal system while maintaining cold air drainage in our area. The GFS setup aloft is screaming more of a SWFE in our area. I think we are going to have to wait until after the weekend storm moves out to see where the baroclinic zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. Straight ice kind of sucks. A couple tenths looks pretty next day in the gleaming sunlight, but it's about the one ptype I could do without. When was the last time the city proper had significant ice accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. It would be better than plain old boring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think this is where the ridging over NW Greenland comes into play. The MJO at Phases 7 favors that sort of setup. The Euro last night showed some higher heights building over northern Greenland-we absolutely need that to continue or better yet strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The Euro last night showed some higher heights building over northern Greenland-we absolutely need that to continue or better yet strengthen. That may shove the storm too far south. I think this is as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The CFS keeps us on the cold and snowy side of the gradient in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The CFS keeps us on the cold and snowy side of the gradient in February. CFSv2.NaT2m.20140128.201402.gif CFSv2.NaPrec.20140128.201402.gif That model has been pretty accurate this winter season as well so that is comforting. One thing though that i still would like to see is atleast a weak or strong enough -NAO to help lock the gradient into a location beneficial for us along the coast and NYC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That model has been pretty accurate this winter season as well so that is comforting. One thing though that i still would like to see is atleast a weak or strong enough -NAO to help lock the gradient into a location beneficial for us along the coast and NYC proper The -NAO has been almost completely absent and there are no signs of it ever happening, so that's probably a lost cause this winter. Looking at the NAO since December, it's been a lot closer to neutral than I thought, probably averaging slightly positive though it should average more positive going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS is coming in stronger with the energy for this upcoming weekend. Probably not going to mean much in the end for our sensible weather. Storm cuts to Buffalo, temps look warm and mainly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro gona be right with the SB . CUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS developing the weak low along the frontal boundary Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That model has been pretty accurate this winter season as well so that is comforting. One thing though that i still would like to see is atleast a weak or strong enough -NAO to help lock the gradient into a location beneficial for us along the coast and NYC proper The block near Alaska that the Euro ensemble mean is showing at day 10 is one of the strongest of the whole winter so far should it verify that strong. 500 meter anomalies in that region would be among the highest for February. That is going to build some very strong Arctic highs that slide south with the cross polar flow from Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The block near Alaska that the Euro ensemble mean is showing at day 10 is one of the strongest of the whole winter so far should it verify that strong. 500 meter anomalies in that region would be among the highest for February. That is going to build some very strong Arctic highs that slide south with the cross polar flow from Siberia. EDH101-240.gif Hopefully that can link to the ridge building from Scandinavia and the high heights can press southward when it counts for us. The -AO is at least a good development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The block near Alaska that the Euro ensemble mean is showing at day 10 is one of the strongest of the whole winter so far should it verify that strong. 500 meter anomalies in that region would be among the highest for February. That is going to build some very strong Arctic highs that slide south with the cross polar flow from Siberia. EDH101-240.gif So looks like cold may not be a problem but still feel uncomfortable in a gradient pattern with atleast no weak blocking. Everything else seems to be lining up for us otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Slight Davis Strait blocking on the GFS at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hopefully that can link to the ridge building from Scandinavia and the high heights can press southward when it counts for us. The -AO is at least a good development. All the long range guidance including the CFS keeps us cold with an extension of the Pacific block east toward NW Greenland with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS is digging the southern stream energy quite a bit more this run and it's going to be a later, further south phase than 06z. Huge storm system stretching from Montana on the NW side to Georgia on the southeast side at hour 171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There is a 1036mb high right over us at 165 hours, CAD signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Light snow breaking out over the region Tuesday afternoon. Low over Arkansas hour 177. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Track of the low is further north this run than 06z. Going to be some ice issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 way too amplified, this is going to cut for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hour 186 we all flip to heavy rain from KSWF south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So looks like cold may not be a problem but still feel uncomfortable in a gradient pattern with atleast no weak blocking. Everything else seems to be lining up for us otherwise We need to have weak systems here with plenty of overrunning like we saw 2-8 to 2-11-94 all on the low level Arctic air with no help from the NAO and a strong SE Ridge. But we don't want a wrapped up system that will cut and cause mix precip issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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