donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I might be a huge weenie right now, but will this be similar to Feb 1899 Nothing as extreme. The pattern evolution might have some similarities. On this date in 1899, a number of the cities down south picked up daily record snowfall totals. A milder period followed, but by February 6 a colder pattern reasserted itself. The February 8-15 period was very cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You can see on the GEFS animation how the coldest temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere transition from Siberia this week back to North America day 8-15. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012806/gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 coldest Jan/Feb combos for NYC since 1948... 1978...27.6... 1977...27.8... 1968...27.8... 1948...28.0... 1994...28.1... 2003...28.8... 1970...29.0... 1963...29.2... 1979...29.6... 1958...29.7... It will probably come down to the second half of February to see if we can carry at least a -3.4 monthly temperature departure to finish below 32. The cold anomalies the next few days will keep January under 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pre-1900's? Yea that qualifies as a huge weenie lol. But the cold may be pretty impressive if it does verify, however how would this all stack up in the scheme of snow possibilities? At that time met winter starts to be on the clock Let's go 3 for 3. If u bring that kind of cold with a neg PNA u will snow. Next week's day 8 euro storm needs to stay weak or it could cut. But there's plenty of chances w that set up. D 15 GFS forces the pna Pos again but I like our Feb chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even the DGEX has this now. It always sniffs out the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This system first showed up on the GFS at day 15. It has not waivered since. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Let's go 3 for 3. If u bring that kind of cold with a neg PNA u will snow. Next week's day 8 euro storm needs to stay weak or it could cut. But there's plenty of chances w that set up. D 15 GFS forces the pna Pos again but I like our Feb chances. Think next week looks like our real legit shot for a SECS or better. Yanks just posted DGEX model too so its got a good amount of model support thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Think next week looks like our real legit shot for a SECS or better. Yanks just posted DGEX model too so its got a good amount of model support thats for sure If it's a weak wave with a lot of trailing moisture then yes. As long as it Pos tilted it will come east of the mountains If it sharpens up in the panhandle it cuts. Root weak and root confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 If it's a weak wave with a lot of trailing moisture then yes. As long as it Pos tilted it will come east of the mountains If it sharpens up in the panhandle it cuts. Root weak and root confluence. A la 2003 pretty much, mother of all overrunning snowstorms for the megalopolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I see all this talk about 1994 as an analog, see President's Day 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I see all this talk about 1994 as an analog, see President's Day 2003. My post above yanks. All its really missing is a stronger Hp and its almost a carbon copy minus so far the 20"+ widespread totals. Also didnt PD2 have a good amount of wind as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I see all this talk about 1994 as an analog, see President's Day 2003. This could be a more suitable analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If it's a weak wave with a lot of trailing moisture then yes. As long as it Pos tilted it will come east of the mountains If it sharpens up in the panhandle it cuts. Root weak and root confluence. Doubt it will cut as long as the PV is close enough and the HP drills in our area from Eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next week is going to be epic, just hang in there until then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doubt it will cut as long as the PV is close enough and the HP drills in our area from Eastern Canada Sure and if that happens the euro ensembles are wrong and ridge is forced east. I would like see one euro ensemble run not back the ridge in so aggressively . As it is I like GFS it's handling the MJO Better and 7 breaks that ridge down faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doubt it will cut as long as the PV is close enough and the HP drills in our area from Eastern Canada We need a favorable NAO configuration for a powerful system like the one progged on the 4th/5th. If we have a similar NAO to now, I'd say the odds are better than not it tries to cut west of us and we go over to sleet, freezing rain or plain rain. Something will have to force the PV to stay in a good position, otherwise a powerful trough will shove it out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We need a favorable NAO configuration for a powerful system like the one progged on the 4th/5th. If we have a similar NAO to now, I'd say the odds are better than not it tries to cut west of us and we go over to sleet, freezing rain or plain rain. Something will have to force the PV to stay in a good position, otherwise a powerful trough will shove it out of the way. I think this is where the ridging over NW Greenland comes into play. The MJO at Phases 7 favors that sort of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doubt it will cut as long as the PV is close enough and the HP drills in our area from Eastern Canada You can't doubt any northwest movement or trend without any blocking. The high pressure is there on the colder models only because of the way that the PV is oriented. This is what is causing some guidance to show colder solutions, as the elongated PV over Southeast Canada helps to reinforce the cold air and keep warm air advection at bay. But if modeled correctly, this system is going to feature lots of WAA by nature. And when that occurs, we need the PV to be correctly oriented to our north, or some kind of high latitude blocking (which we don't have. So we need to carefully watch the models handling of the height field to our north. If we lose that favorable orientation, this storm will not be pretty for our area. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_6z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even the DGEX has this now. It always sniffs out the big ones. With a closed 850mb low over Southeast Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There appears to be a slight block right over the Davis Strait, but I think the main driver is the massive -EPO that is relentlessly driving low level cold air no matter how much the SE ridge tries to overcome it, also note 50/50 low http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012806/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We need a favorable NAO configuration for a powerful system like the one progged on the 4th/5th. If we have a similar NAO to now, I'd say the odds are better than not it tries to cut west of us and we go over to sleet, freezing rain or plain rain. Something will have to force the PV to stay in a good position, otherwise a powerful trough will shove it out of the way. Yeah, this. You and I have both experienced a tremendous amount of these SW flow events or at least ones that originate from this area. When timed right, or when they occur during blocking periods, they can be great -- lots of moisture, tons of forcing, heavy hitters. But more often than not, the mid level warming wins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There appears to be a slight block right over the Davis Strait, but I think the main driver is the massive -EPO that is relentlessly driving low level cold air no matter how much the SE ridge tries to overcome it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012806/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png The presence of low level cold air will certainly come into the conversation if the storm draws closer. But those looking for a major snowstorm in this set up are going to be let down if the models are even slightly incorrect with the PV orientation. If that moves a hair north we're going to sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The presence of low level cold air will certainly come into the conversation if the storm draws closer. But those looking for a major snowstorm in this set up are going to be let down if the models are even slightly incorrect with the PV orientation. If that moves a hair north we're going to sleet and freezing rain.Posted yesterday that without a good -NAO preferably west based to lock cold air in your totally correct in saying warm air more often than not wins out. We NEED the blocking to lock the cold in or at the very least the PV in the right spot or its wet not white. Yes -EPO will help to a point but with the SE ridge also doing some work -NAO will be at a premium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Posted yesterday that without a good -NAO preferably west based to lock cold air in your totally correct in saying warm air more often than not wins out. We NEED the blocking to lock the cold in or at the very least the PV in the right spot or its wet not white. Yes -EPO will help to a point but with the SE ridge also doing some work -NAO will be at a premium Based on the ECM, you only need minimal blocking, not medium to high blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 But when the PV is over Eastern Canada, wouldn't it raise the heights anyway in Greenland? And it looks from my weenie eye that those huge anomalous heights over AK and the arctic would create a cross polar flow that keeps the PV at bay and has a 50/50 look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The presence of low level cold air will certainly come into the conversation if the storm draws closer. But those looking for a major snowstorm in this set up are going to be let down if the models are even slightly incorrect with the PV orientation. If that moves a hair north we're going to sleet and freezing rain. The whole forecast hinges on a weak wave overrunning storm like 2-11-94. Anything with more amplitude is going to have mixing problems here. 1994 was all about a weak storm with no real blocking necessary. A more wound up system will disappoint like you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 But when the PV is over Eastern Canada, wouldn't it raise the heights anyway in Greenland? And it looks from my weenie eye that those huge anomalous heights over AK and the arctic would create a cross polar flow that keeps the PV at bay and has a 50/50 look to it You have a point there. This could be why the GFS is pretty persistent with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The presence of low level cold air will certainly come into the conversation if the storm draws closer. But those looking for a major snowstorm in this set up are going to be let down if the models are even slightly incorrect with the PV orientation. If that moves a hair north we're going to sleet and freezing rain. Sleet and freezing rain is always an understood risk in these setups, particularly to the east of the low track, but the GEFS and ECWMF ensembles have been locked in on this being a colder storm for our area and to me that has been the most impressive signal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would take the consolation prize of a major ice storm for the area as well. That would be far from boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And in the cases of 2/11/94 and Feb 2003, both had a 50/50 type feature, this time the PV is acting like one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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