IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Cache had 12 Z yet..00z does change over to rain but its about central NJ south where it does! If this were 24 hours out, I'd say: talk about close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wonder how long this EPO regime is going to last. As long as it's negative, then we'll see plenty of cold shots and frozen threats (at least snow to rain). To really have a shot at all snow, those lows will have to stay quite weak and I would take it one storm at a time. Weak storm doesn't mean little precip either as demonstrated by tonight's gfs run around Day 8. As long as it's go plenty of juice to go along with it (subtropical jet), then it could deliver big time QPF. Focus on SB weekend and go from there as I do think we could see a couple of inches of snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wonder how long this EPO regime is going to last. As long as it's negative, then we'll see plenty of cold shots and frozen threats (at least snow to rain). To really have a shot at all snow, those lows will have to stay quite weak and I would take it one storm at a time. Weak storm doesn't mean little precip either as demonstrated by tonight's gfs run around Day 8. As long as it's go plenty of juice to go along with it (subtropical jet), then it could deliver big time QPF. Focus on SB weekend and go from there as I do think we could see a couple of inches of snow to rain. Usually an Oscillation Regime last about 45 to 60 days, so I'd say we have until at least Mid to Late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If I had one word to describe the 00z GEFS ensembles post day 7 it would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro develops another lp after the cutter on the 3rd, bringing 2-4" from cnj south and parts of LI..1-2" nnj/nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Massive overunning snow event for nyc on the euro, there's also a small 1-3" wave before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Massive overunning snow event for nyc on the euro, there's also a small 1-3" wave before that It looks colder than the 00Z GFS. There's something lurking around the corner next week and it looks very promising. Although, the ECM has the overrunning at a much slower pace. So that does indicate better HP blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z ECM for the 5th to 6th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro even destroys dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Something is definitely up for that time frame when both the gfs and Euro show something similar that far out. It could be a major storm, but the question will be whether or not it's frozen, mostly frozen, rain, or mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Something is definitely up for that time frame when both the gfs and Euro show something similar that far out. It could be a major storm, but the question will be whether or not it's frozen, mostly frozen, rain, or mostly rain. This may be a scenario where the ECM already nearly nailed it, but the GFS will probably play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro run is pretty awesome with that 12-18" storm. Obviously we have to wait to see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 6z GFS looks like the 0z Euro for the same time frame, lots of moisture and the HP from Canada keeps us all snow, huge overrunning event on the table here, the models have now picked up on the low level cold air and doesn't send the SE ridge through the PV, 6"+ for NYC on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Big storm signal from the GFS and Euro for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png Would you look at that a nice HP above NY with a LP coming up from the south with alot of moisture. Still too far off for my liking with this years model performances but we shall see. It is a pretty good thing that both the EURO and GFS both show this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The ensembles show this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does the euro have for sat/sun.... Gfs has 1-3" followed by mix/rain....euro similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does the euro have for sat/sun.... Gfs has 1-3" followed by mix/rain....euro similar? Rain. Cuts it over Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rain. Cuts it over Detroit. Rain and we get nice surge of well missed warmer air to break the cold. I actually look forward to having a couple days of warmer weather in between the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hmmm.. going to be an interesting few days. I will say when a monster storm is coming, the models are usually good at showing it this far out. Only for it to waffle away in the 72-96 hour time frame causing mass suicide and then waffle back for the slam dunk. I dont like to relate to it but 12/26/10 style. I just remember that most of our big storms start this far out so I am happy with what I am reading thanks to the choice memebers of this board. (You should know who you are) I think this is the one thats gonna do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Holy.png 00z ECM for the 5th to 6th! Weak wave longer duration overrruning snow special ala 2-11-94. The 11-15 D forecast sends Siberian Arctic air directly over the pole into NOAM behind the storm or storm behind next one. The GFS is hinting at at least -32C to -36C at 850 with the potential of a run at -40C if the coldest forecasts verify. We will be looking at one of our coldest back Jan-Feb in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Weak wave longer duration overrruning snow special ala 2-11-94. The 11-15 D forecast sends Siberian Arctic air directly over the pole into NOAM behind the storm or storm behind next one. The GFS is hinting at at least -32C to -36C at 850 with the potential of a run at -40C if the coldest forecasts verify. We will be looking at one of our coldest back Jan-Feb in years. 850tmpcf384.gif That would be the coldest 5 day period here of the winter so far , hopefully overdone - 16 C is insane . ( cut that in half ) and that's still a week of 15 F below . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hope that verifies, need to preserve snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That would be the coldest 5 day period here of the winter so far , hopefully overdone - 16 C is insane . ( cut that in half ) and that's still a week of 15 F below . It looks like we will be able to put up our first back to back Jan below 30 and Feb below 32 since 2003, 1994, and 1978 with that much cross polar Siberian pouring into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will b the coldest jan and Feb since 77 78 rockies east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I might be a huge weenie right now, but will this be similar to Feb 1899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Weak wave longer duration overrruning snow special ala 2-11-94. The 11-15 D forecast sends Siberian Arctic air directly over the pole into NOAM behind the storm or storm behind next one. The GFS is hinting at at least -32C to -36C at 850 with the potential of a run at -40C if the coldest forecasts verify. We will be looking at one of our coldest back Jan-Feb in years. 850tmpcf384.gif coldest Jan/Feb combos for NYC since 1948... 1978...27.6... 1977...27.8... 1968...27.8... 1948...28.0... 1994...28.1... 2003...28.8... 1970...29.0... 1963...29.2... 1979...29.6... 1958...29.7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I might be a huge weenie right now, but will this be similar to Feb 1899Pre-1900's? Yea that qualifies as a huge weenie lol. But the cold may be pretty impressive if it does verify, however how would this all stack up in the scheme of snow possibilities? At that time met winter starts to be on the clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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