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February Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that,

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These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that,

How did KBLM do ?

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How did KBLM do ?

 

I don't think they measured snow down there...but if LGA saw near 60" and ACY saw near 10"...measure the distance between the 2....then the distance between LGA & Belmar...multiply the percentage by the 50 inch difference & subtract from 60....and you likely would not be far off..

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I don't think they measured snow down there...but if LGA saw near 60" and ACY saw near 10"...measure the distance between the 2....then the distance between LGA & Belmar...multiply the percentage by the 50 inch difference & subtract from 60....and you likely would not be far off..

Where do i sign . I am hoping that the models are over doing the retrogression of the ridge .

I will feel more confident when the the JMA weeklies come out Thrs .

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About the pre-gradient pattern for February 1994 Vs. February 2014. Notice that the storm on at January 27th, 1994 focused the snowfall over Northern NJ/Eastern PA, while the storm coming up on Wednesday is focusing the snowfall over the SE US. This could be a more meaningful signal in the medium range. Could this mean that the R/S line ends up further south than the February of '94 R/S Line? 

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These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that,

 

The worst gradient for snowfall in recent memory was likely the 50 inches at Westchester County Airport in 1992-93 and the 25 inches or so in NYC...IDK if it was so much a gradient winter per se...or more a product of HPN being crushed by the 12/12/92 & 3/15/93 events....while the coast was mostly rain for the 1st one and an underperformer due to the changeover in the latter..

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The worst gradient for snowfall in recent memory was likely the 50 inches at Westchester County Airport in 1992-93 and the 25 inches or so in NYC...IDK if it was so much a gradient winter per se...or more a product of HPN being crushed by the 12/12/92 & 3/15/93 events....while the coast was mostly rain for the 1st one and an underperformer due to the changeover in the latter..

 

Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme...again, most of that was the product of one event.

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Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme....again, most of that was the product of one event.

 

The exact numbers...

 

Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13

Bridgeport: 64.3"

NWS Upton: 51.8"

Islip: 46.9"

Newark: 29.5"

NYC Central Park: 26.1"

LaGuardia: 22.2"

Allentown: 21.4"

JFK: 17.6"

Philadelphia Intl: 8.3"

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Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme...again, most of that was the product of one event.

We would have had an additional foot of snow down here had the sleet not lasted so long the night of 2/8. The sleet was coming down abut as hard as I've ever seen it come down, for a few hours. That cost us big time in much of Nassau County. In much of Suffolk, the snow took over much sooner and that's how the 30" amounts occurred there. The banding was better there, but the warm air was more stubborn in the mid levels than most thought, especially since the rain turned to sleet/snow mix pretty quickly.

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We would have had an additional foot of snow down here had the sleet not lasted so long the night of 2/8. The sleet was coming down abut as hard as I've ever seen it come down, for a few hours. That cost us big time in much of Nassau County. In much of Suffolk, the snow took over much sooner and that's how the 30" amounts occurred there. The banding was better there, but the warm air was more stubborn in the mid levels than most thought, especially since the rain turned to sleet/snow mix pretty quickly.

 

Even here in Suffolk I had a good 1-2 hours of heavy sleet. It was sleet I think from about 3-5pm. Even at times after 5 we would change over to a heavy sleet. We could have had an extra foot like you said if it wasn't for the sleet. Still ended up with 17.5".

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Even here in Suffolk I had a good 1-2 hours of heavy sleet. It was sleet I think from about 3-5pm. Even at times after 5 we would change over to a heavy sleet. We could have had an extra foot like you said if it wasn't for the sleet. Still ended up with 17.5".

 

Where I was at...we went over to plain snow at about 12:40 PM...stayed snow until about 7 PM when it was occasionally mixed with sleet for about an hour or so...then back to snow for the balance.  But by the time the sleet mixed in, there was over 10 inches on the ground.

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00z GFS is snow to rain for Friday/Saturday and then clear for the game, but we do get a secondary low to develop down south that kicks OTS in response to the sharpening of the trough. This will need to be watched closely.

It could certainly make the SB more interesting if something extra were to ignite. It kind of reminds me of those waves we saw in December where we picked up our first snows and the pattern may be similar to that of early December with the +NAO/-EPO combo. 

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00z GFS is snow to rain for Friday/Saturday and then clear for the game, but we do get a secondary low to develop down south that kicks OTS in response to the sharpening of the trough. This will need to be watched closely.

 

I'm not sure I completely buy the Fri/Sat storm being as strong as shown, I could see that ending up just a sheared out wave

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Theres already a high sliding off the east coast which would allow the system to cut as the GFS shows so what starts as snow turns over to rain before going back to snow...

 

Actually, it never changes over to rain. The 850s/2m remain below freezing as far south as Central NJ. Sounds familiar? BTW, are you talking about the D9 storm on the GFS? 

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Well at least things won't be boring, gradient patterns never are and when you have widespread low level cold hanging close by, there's bound to be some at least some frozen thrown in there. It's such a shame because if the SE ridge were just a bit weaker in this pattern then we could have seen something similar to Feb 1994. 

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Where I was at...we went over to plain snow at about 12:40 PM...stayed snow until about 7 PM when it was occasionally mixed with sleet for about an hour or so...then back to snow for the balance.  But by the time the sleet mixed in, there was over 10 inches on the ground.

 

Same here.  Just about all snow after mid-day changeover except for a minor sleet mix.  After about 3:30 - 4PM was when things got crazy; light snow with maybe a couple of inches up to that point.  We had at least 6" by sunset.

 

Edit:  Why rely on memory:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/?p=2097823

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