PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 <Takes his Aricept> You guys have one hell of a decade up there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You guys have one hell of a decade up there . Make that a century...or 13.5% of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that, How did KBLM do ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How did KBLM do ? I don't think they measured snow down there...but if LGA saw near 60" and ACY saw near 10"...measure the distance between the 2....then the distance between LGA & Belmar...multiply the percentage by the 50 inch difference & subtract from 60....and you likely would not be far off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think they measured snow down there...but if LGA saw near 60" and ACY saw near 10"...measure the distance between the 2....then the distance between LGA & Belmar...multiply the percentage by the 50 inch difference & subtract from 60....and you likely would not be far off.. Where do i sign . I am hoping that the models are over doing the retrogression of the ridge . I will feel more confident when the the JMA weeklies come out Thrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 About the pre-gradient pattern for February 1994 Vs. February 2014. Notice that the storm on at January 27th, 1994 focused the snowfall over Northern NJ/Eastern PA, while the storm coming up on Wednesday is focusing the snowfall over the SE US. This could be a more meaningful signal in the medium range. Could this mean that the R/S line ends up further south than the February of '94 R/S Line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 These gradient patterns aren't the best for producing snow around here...with all the cold of January 1994...the month only mustered about 10 inches of snow in NYC...by February things improved and the month saw 20 to 30 inches across the area...but south of Staten Island...totals dropped very quickly and while LGA saw 59" of snow that winter...down the coast in Atlantic County...ACY was in single digits for snowfall...or near that, The worst gradient for snowfall in recent memory was likely the 50 inches at Westchester County Airport in 1992-93 and the 25 inches or so in NYC...IDK if it was so much a gradient winter per se...or more a product of HPN being crushed by the 12/12/92 & 3/15/93 events....while the coast was mostly rain for the 1st one and an underperformer due to the changeover in the latter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The worst gradient for snowfall in recent memory was likely the 50 inches at Westchester County Airport in 1992-93 and the 25 inches or so in NYC...IDK if it was so much a gradient winter per se...or more a product of HPN being crushed by the 12/12/92 & 3/15/93 events....while the coast was mostly rain for the 1st one and an underperformer due to the changeover in the latter.. Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme...again, most of that was the product of one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme....again, most of that was the product of one event. The exact numbers... Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 Bridgeport: 64.3" NWS Upton: 51.8" Islip: 46.9" Newark: 29.5" NYC Central Park: 26.1" LaGuardia: 22.2" Allentown: 21.4" JFK: 17.6" Philadelphia Intl: 8.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Add 2007-08 to that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Truth be told the worst gradient was really 2012-13 with 60 plus inches up I-95 at Bridgeport and less than 20 inches at JFK...now that was extreme...again, most of that was the product of one event. We would have had an additional foot of snow down here had the sleet not lasted so long the night of 2/8. The sleet was coming down abut as hard as I've ever seen it come down, for a few hours. That cost us big time in much of Nassau County. In much of Suffolk, the snow took over much sooner and that's how the 30" amounts occurred there. The banding was better there, but the warm air was more stubborn in the mid levels than most thought, especially since the rain turned to sleet/snow mix pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We would have had an additional foot of snow down here had the sleet not lasted so long the night of 2/8. The sleet was coming down abut as hard as I've ever seen it come down, for a few hours. That cost us big time in much of Nassau County. In much of Suffolk, the snow took over much sooner and that's how the 30" amounts occurred there. The banding was better there, but the warm air was more stubborn in the mid levels than most thought, especially since the rain turned to sleet/snow mix pretty quickly. Even here in Suffolk I had a good 1-2 hours of heavy sleet. It was sleet I think from about 3-5pm. Even at times after 5 we would change over to a heavy sleet. We could have had an extra foot like you said if it wasn't for the sleet. Still ended up with 17.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even here in Suffolk I had a good 1-2 hours of heavy sleet. It was sleet I think from about 3-5pm. Even at times after 5 we would change over to a heavy sleet. We could have had an extra foot like you said if it wasn't for the sleet. Still ended up with 17.5". Where I was at...we went over to plain snow at about 12:40 PM...stayed snow until about 7 PM when it was occasionally mixed with sleet for about an hour or so...then back to snow for the balance. But by the time the sleet mixed in, there was over 10 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z GFS is snow to rain for Friday/Saturday and then clear for the game, but we do get a secondary low to develop down south that kicks OTS in response to the sharpening of the trough. This will need to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z GFS is snow to rain for Friday/Saturday and then clear for the game, but we do get a secondary low to develop down south that kicks OTS in response to the sharpening of the trough. This will need to be watched closely. It could certainly make the SB more interesting if something extra were to ignite. It kind of reminds me of those waves we saw in December where we picked up our first snows and the pattern may be similar to that of early December with the +NAO/-EPO combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z GFS is snow to rain for Friday/Saturday and then clear for the game, but we do get a secondary low to develop down south that kicks OTS in response to the sharpening of the trough. This will need to be watched closely. I'm not sure I completely buy the Fri/Sat storm being as strong as shown, I could see that ending up just a sheared out wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well the day 8 system certainly didn't disappoint on the 00z GFS and the system coming right on its heels looks dare I say, even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 FWIW Before Trancuation The 00z GFS was a beauty at HR192!!!! Loving That High Pressure As Well To Provide CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Theres already a high sliding off the east coast which would allow the system to cut as the GFS shows so what starts as snow turns over to rain before going back to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Theres already a high sliding off the east coast which would allow the system to cut as the GFS shows so what starts as snow turns over to rain before going back to snow... it's not sliding off the coast. It cuts because of the +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Theres already a high sliding off the east coast which would allow the system to cut as the GFS shows so what starts as snow turns over to rain before going back to snow... Actually, it never changes over to rain. The 850s/2m remain below freezing as far south as Central NJ. Sounds familiar? BTW, are you talking about the D9 storm on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1994 Baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1994 Baby Definitely, expect that the D9 storm is '94 on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's a frozen run but if I was to over analyze I DO see a warm nose somewhere between 1000-500mb based on the GfS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well at least things won't be boring, gradient patterns never are and when you have widespread low level cold hanging close by, there's bound to be some at least some frozen thrown in there. It's such a shame because if the SE ridge were just a bit weaker in this pattern then we could have seen something similar to Feb 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Where I was at...we went over to plain snow at about 12:40 PM...stayed snow until about 7 PM when it was occasionally mixed with sleet for about an hour or so...then back to snow for the balance. But by the time the sleet mixed in, there was over 10 inches on the ground. Same here. Just about all snow after mid-day changeover except for a minor sleet mix. After about 3:30 - 4PM was when things got crazy; light snow with maybe a couple of inches up to that point. We had at least 6" by sunset. Edit: Why rely on memory: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/?p=2097823 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's a frozen run but if I was to over analyze I DO see a warm nose somewhere between 1000-500mb based on the GfS I think it's around 925 mB. It's pretty quick, so if anything that will be IP with the intruding warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Actually, it never changes over to rain. The 850s/2m remain below freezing as far south as Central NJ. Sounds familiar? BTW, are you talking about the D9 storm on the GFS? Cache had 12 Z yet..00z does change over to rain but its about central NJ south where it does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Overall, the GFS and ECM are signaling something very noteworthy around the 4th-5th. This needs to be watched closely. It could prove to be more interesting in terms of the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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