wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is some 9 days out, why even take it seriously right now.Precisely because the euro is picking up on low level cold air at this range. The se ridge loving euro. This run is so tantalizingly close to a huge snow storm even for NYC. All this hoopla about the pattern not being good for NYC is just negative posters being negative posters again. There will be a battleground. It will likely be south of NYC. Strong high pressures and or weak blocking will fix that. Happened all December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Precisely because the euro is picking up on low level cold air at this range. The se ridge loving euro. This run is so tantalizingly close to a huge snow storm even for NYC. All this hoopla about the pattern not being good for NYC is just negative posters being negative posters again. Strong high pressures and or weak blocking will fix that. Happened all December. All you need is the low to be slightly weaker than the Euro or a little stronger block to the north. 2-11-94 was all about the low level cold air holding in with a weak enough wave to run far enough south. The 500 mb is as ugly as it gets for 12" storms around here. I don't think anyone would look at 500 mb and think major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Look at the ggem to see how easily this can be snow for us. Storm cuts in between a 1060 and 1040 high. Better high placement and were in the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A little further south would be another 2-11-94 which had a nasty ice storm on its southern flank. NJSnow-11Feb94.png Have 3 days or so to figure out if the retrogression of the ridge is real . And if we can a little confluence to have one of these belly under then its possible. We just picked up 1 -2 on a S WIND here Sat , so it wants to snow here . lets see if our luck continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I deleted the last image , here`s the close up . It has been the most N with its guidance and is not moving Leave it right there please thank you.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Leave it right there please thank you.. lol sink it south and you're still in it along with the rest of us. Don't be greedy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 sink it south and you're still in it along with the rest of us. Don't be greedy lol lol.. Looong way to go for this one. Hopefully its the big one for many of us that missed out last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Euro ensembles cut this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Euro ensembles cut this . Need more info. It's not surprising they cut it. Is there a spread? Is it further east/west? Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Need more info. It's not surprising they cut it. Is there a spread? Is it further east/west? Temps? 850`s are plus 5 , Surface on OP got close to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS just bellies right on under , but in 78 and 96 before the blizzards , a week prior a storm cut to the lakes in an overall cold pattern . So its possible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 850`s are plus 5 , Surface on OP got close to 50 Ick, that's nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS just bellies right on under , but in 78 and 96 before the blizzards , a week prior a storm cut to the lakes in an overall cold pattern . So its possible . What's the 360 hr control temps look like since the last time it did well with the recent cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the 360 hr control temps look like since the last time it did well with the recent cold? Im only out to 144 , WB slow . The Ridge starts to retreat at 144 , Trough thru the lakes at that time . Late Sunday if you get em B4 me throw em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did someone say the Euro Ensembles cut the day 8-9 system? That's not true, the low on the mean passes off the mid-atlantic coast and look very juicy for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Im only out to 144 , WB slow . The Ridge starts to retreat at 144 , Trough thru the lakes at that time . Late Sunday if you get em B4 me throw em up Thanks. The low level Arctic air coming down into the Midwest then East will be impressive under that big Alaskan Arctic high that slides down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Think we have storms crossed , I was referencing the GFS vs the Euro for the 1st system , im not out to next wknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the 360 hr control temps look like since the last time it did well with the recent cold? I will have the control in a few , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Think we have storms crossed , I was referencing the GFS vs the Euro for the 1st system , im not out to next wknd Yes, the SB system cuts to Buffalo on the mean, but the system looked weak in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes, the SB system cuts to Buffalo on the mean, but the system looked weak in general. Now im out to you`re system , looks very good from here 850`s Minus 5 , so heavy precip, the low level cold air wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Now im out to you`re system , looks very good from here 850`s Minus 5 , so heavy precip, the low level cold air wins out Does the control run show a monster? Whenever we get a blockbuster the control run always goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does the control run show a monster? Whenever we get a blockbuster the control run always goes nuts. The Ensemble have a more classic look , this is strong , but we wouldn`t want this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 given the euro's ens support for cutting north and the general pattern, i would pretty much give up on saturday's event if you want snow here. the next system looks much more interesting. we need it to be weak as bluewave said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the 360 hr control temps look like since the last time it did well with the recent cold? Think i`m at my Euro map limit , sorry John 360 hour Ensembles is just Coast to Coast cold . Not bitter , but cold enough The day 8-9 Ensembles have a nice look on the EC Heights still connect from the PAC over the Pole Canada is an ice box . Not sure if that's where it stays . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 given the euro's ens support for cutting north and the general pattern, i would pretty much give up on saturday's event if you want snow here. the next system looks much more interesting. we need it to be weak as bluewave said. 1st one cuts Fork , but in 78 and 96 both had a cutter a week before the Blizzards . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Ensemble have a more classic look , this is strong , but we wouldn`t want this What's wrong with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's wrong with this? If you`re ok with plus 10 air at 850, then I guess nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ensembles day 8 -9 has the look of a center coming thru the Tenn valley off Hatteras to Montauk ( about ) , I like that better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If you`re ok with plus 10 air at 850, then I guess nothing What does the surface look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What does the surface look like? Couldn't see that off my maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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