IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would take the 12z GGEM, at least it would be a potent storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That setup day 7-8 is not good IMO, will def lead to a cutter if the shortwave is that strong we'd need the PV to be more south/east and more robust, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wish the PV was pressing further south as this could get ugly. It'll be an active pattern but could be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That setup day 7-8 is not good IMO, will def lead to a cutter if the shortwave is that strong we'd need the PV to be more south/east and more robust, You don't need to look any further than H5 to see why this won't be a cutter. We don't get into these great gradient patterns too often and I think it's causing people to be overly pessimistic about things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That setup day 7-8 is not good IMO, will def lead to a cutter if the shortwave is that strong we'd need the PV to be more south/east and more robust, Something we never thought we'd be saying, huh?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 You don't need to look any further than H5 to see why this won't be a cutter. We don't get into these great gradient patterns too often and I think it's causing people to be overly pessimistic about things. When we do though typically the gradient is more beneficial to our northern friends. I agree that this 94' esque gradient pattern will not lack moisture and when we couple it with the cold air we can cash in substantially. Think we should all take a breather till superbowl weekend to see if its panic or promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You don't need to look any further than H5 to see why this won't be a cutter. We don't get into these great gradient patterns too often and I think it's causing people to be overly pessimistic about things. And when we do get them the models usually show rain beyond Day 4-5...that was a major problem in 93-94 for every storm, the 2/8 and 2/11 events were rain on the AVN model 96 hours out...obviously the models are better now but they still overphase stuff in split flow/gradient setups...notice how Friday's event is nowhere near as "phased" as it was 3 days back on the models, its fairly flat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is well south of the OP for the 4th/5th, shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You are still headed toward Neg 3 SD below normal . Be careful buying the retrogression of a strong ridge . The Euro has tried this before and the EPO pressed an won . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The low on the 12z GEFS mean passes off the Delmarva coast and then towards Cape Cod. The operational models are obviously having some issues. At hour 216 the cluster is actually quite tight right off the NJ coast and most differences are timing rather than track. Nearly 2" of QPF through day 9 on the mean, most of that frozen. By the looks of the mean, I doubt any of the individual members have cutters, or very few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What is the gefs for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What is the gefs for this weekend? It generally supports the op, a bit weaker and more strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z ECMWF is a lot different than the GFS op for this weekend. Friday and Saturday look mainly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro might be too amplified like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Some light snow super bowl Sunday morning on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is POS tilted trough , these usually don`t like to cut , The Euro loves to cut systems . Takes temps into the 40`s for the SB . Just an entirely different evolution than the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro has a SW trough bias too, hold it back for too long leading to amped SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro doesn't seem to give us any snow chances through at least day 7. It seems to be the central US's turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Euro goes heavy precip for the next storm on the 4-5th and never gets the surface freezing line north of the GW bridge. This run looks like an icy mess with heavy snows just north. A few miles will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro is actually a major ice storm for most of NNJ on the day 8-9 system. The good news is that it was well south of the GFS op and close to the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro doesn't seem to give us any snow chances through at least day 7. It seems to be the central US's turn That's if you believe the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If we go into a pattern with strong, STJ-infused troughs and a SE ridge, we will likely get rainy/icy cutters unless there is blocking over western Greenland and Davis Straight. We're really playing with fire if we don't have that in place with a stormy pattern. In that respect, the Euro makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro is a solid snowstorm and ice storm for NWNJ and almost everyone in southern and central New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I deleted the last image , here`s the close up . It has been the most N with its guidance and is not moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bad icestorm on the euro for the area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I deleted the last image , here`s the close up . It has been the most N with its guidance and is not moving That image smells like '07-08 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is some 9 days out, why even take it seriously right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 If we go into a pattern with strong, STJ-infused troughs and a SE ridge, we will likely get rainy/icy cutters unless there is blocking over western Greenland and Davis Straight. We're really playing with fire if we don't have that in place with a stormy pattern. In that respect, the Euro makes sense to me. Yup with no blocking to help lock the cold air in its snow for the north and use either taint or rain. Having a davis strait or greenland block would be essential for us to actually have consistent snow chances otherwise its catskills on north that are in the white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I deleted the last image , here`s the close up . It has been the most N with its guidance and is not moving A little further south would be another 2-11-94 which had a nasty ice storm on its southern flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At least the pattern coming up is active, no worries about cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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