IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 10:02 PM, PB GFI said: Couldn't see that off my maps You always run the risk of ZR in these setups. It will be a few days before we have to worry about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS is quite a bit more robust with the precip for Saturday. Looks like snow to rain at the coast and snow to ZR inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Actually looks like all snow to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS looks to put down 2 to 4 inches area wide with the 1st system as it ends as drizzle Sat PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 10:15 PM, rossi said: Actually looks like all snow to coast 850's go above 0 hr 126. Snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Inland the surface never really gets above freezing except for maybe very briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 10:15 PM, PB GFI said: The GFS looks to put down 2 to 4 inches area wide with the 1st system as it ends as drizzle Sat PM You got that right Pauly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS is a big ice storm NW of the city on the 5th. Looks nearly identical to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 10:41 PM, YanksFan27 said: 18z GFS is a big ice storm NW of the city on the 5th. Looks nearly identical to the Euro. Euro showed a snowstorm for these parts not much ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GFS is snow to ice for NYC, nice CAD signature 1030mb high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 10:50 PM, snywx said: Euro showed a snowstorm for these parts not much ice Not sure why we are over analyzing a day 9 system but the Euro has roughly a twelve hour period of ZR/IP for a good portion of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For those wondering looks like the gradient pattern finally breaks down around mid-month with the PV dropping back down into the Lakes and a return to a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So our mid week storm..not happening. ..and the SB storm neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z GEFS mean is awesome beyond day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I can only see the 500mb for the ensembles, what do you see, snow chances? There is also 2" of QPF on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 11:51 PM, +SNfreak21 said: I can only see the 500mb for the ensembles, what do you see, snow chances? There is also 2" of QPF on this runThey look great for the big storm right after the Super Bowl and the system coming in behind it. To say it's bullish would be an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Close to 2" QPF on the mean in the next ten days, mainly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 11:57 PM, YanksFan27 said: Close to 2" QPF on the mean in the next ten days, mainly frozen. this will be fun to track wether it produces or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 11:33 PM, JSantanaNYC said: So our mid week storm..not happening. ..and the SB storm neither. There really was never a mid week system modeled , the SB system is still there . Pattern looks good going forward . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The mid week storm never showed as a hit. It's been consistently OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am quelling my excitement till after superbowl to see whether or not we do get some good snow threats. just going to sit back and watch the model waffling since the models haven't been too good outside of 72-96 hrs consistently this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 11:36 PM, YanksFan27 said: 18z GEFS mean is awesome beyond day 7 It always looks awesome past Day 7 lol. There's really nothing to get to excited about honestly, the gfs shows mostly rain for all the storms that come across. You can't exactly make the 1993-1994 comparison because the low level cold is not as strong this time. I wish we could have a massive high 1040+ drilling down across the northern plains keeping the disturbances down south until they blow up by us instead of cutting like the 18z gfs shows. The 2/5 system looks a little bit more interesting but it cuts again due to SE ridging and the highs are moving east up north. So I guess snow to rain is our best hope right now. Not trying to be negative, but the pattern is not the same one I thought it would be a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:41 AM, REDMK6GLI said: I am quelling my excitement till after superbowl to see whether or not we do get some good snow threats. just going to sit back and watch the model waffling since the models haven't been too good outside of 72-96 hrs consistently this year. I did u tell you no mid week storm. Focus on the SB weekend. Think you will do fine from that point going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:44 AM, SnoSki14 said: It always looks awesome past Day 7 lol. There's really nothing to get to excited about honestly, the gfs shows mostly rain for all the storms that come across. You can't exactly make the 1993-1994 comparison because the low level cold is not as strong this time. I wish we could have a massive high 1040+ drilling down across the northern plains keeping the disturbances down south until they blow up by us instead of cutting like the 18z gfs shows. The 2/5 system looks a little bit more interesting but it cuts again due to SE ridging and the highs are moving east up north. So I guess snow to rain is our best hope right now. Not trying to be negative, but the pattern is not the same one I thought it would be a few days ago. the 93/94 storms were always modeled to be rain 7 -8 days out also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 February is much more of a snow month than an ice month in the general area...not to say it can't happen...but with the mean jet exiting the US at its southernmost point of the year & sea surface temperatures at their lowest...I'd bank more on snow than ice during February. December & January generally see a good deal more freezing rain in this area than in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:48 AM, PB GFI said: I did u tell you no mid week storm. Focus on the SB weekend. Think you will do fine from that point going forward yes paul you were right.....again you have been pretty on point this winter and it proved it yet again. but like I said post-SB weekend It should be favorable for NYC point S&E. SB weekend I fear will be more a tainted mess for the NYC proper area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:44 AM, SnoSki14 said: It always looks awesome past Day 7 lol. There's really nothing to get to excited about honestly, the gfs shows mostly rain for all the storms that come across. You can't exactly make the 1993-1994 comparison because the low level cold is not as strong this time. I wish we could have a massive high 1040+ drilling down across the northern plains keeping the disturbances down south until they blow up by us instead of cutting like the 18z gfs shows. The 2/5 system looks a little bit more interesting but it cuts again due to SE ridging and the highs are moving east up north. So I guess snow to rain is our best hope right now. Not trying to be negative, but the pattern is not the same one I thought it would be a few days ago. You obviously haven't done your homework, and I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 12:56 AM, REDMK6GLI said: yes paul you were right.....again you have been pretty on point this winter and it proved it yet again. but like I said post-SB weekend It should be favorable for NYC point S&E. SB weekend I fear will be more a tainted mess for the NYC proper area This upcoming pattern prob favors areas from I 80 N , Not sure how good I will do . I need weaker systems to WAA and prob end as drizzle for me . Or hope I get enough confluence to keep the low cold level air in . Anything dynamic prob cuts IMO . Then by D 15 the trough is in the EAST . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 1:03 AM, William said: I thought you lived in L.H.? Colts Neck is the main house , Still own Laurel Hollow . We spoke about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's easy to get overly excited, especially when the ensembles are this bullish. A weaker system would be better for the coast, but at the sacrifice of much less QPF. Too strong and we all torch. Hopefully we can find that happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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