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1/25 & 1/27 Clipper Threats


mitchnick

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All guidance points to a short period of decent rates on cold ground. Dca has been solid in the ..05-.08 on average. Inch is definitely possible

 

yeah..1/2" to 1" based on guidance...I view a coating the same as a cartopper....25" or less...of course that is entirely possible...excited to whiten our piles a bit...Hi-res NAM composite radar is pretty tasty....GFS has a minor event on monday as well...could develop into something like 1/25...maybe we should just include it here.

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NAM and GFS have been painting some qpf over the area, with the GFS the better of the two

Today's 12Z NAM give DCA-.03, IAD-.01 and BWI-.07

NE is where you want to be with MTN at .11 and Matt's favorite east coast town of PHL with .18

 

6Z GFS gave BWI-.06, DCA-.04 and IAD-.03

 

1/2"-1" is probably the best we can hope for barring a miracle band setting up east of the mts.

 

minor event on Monday as well...could materialize into something like 1/25...Let's include it here...perhaps change the title...

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yeah..1/2" to 1" based on guidance...I view a coating the same as a cartopper....25" or less...of course that is entirely possible...excited to whiten our piles a bit...Hi-res NAM composite radar is pretty tasty....GFS has a minor event on monday as well...could develop into something like 1/25...maybe we should just include it here.

I guess its a matter of opinion...not sure theres a real definition..to me a coating is under an inch down to about 0.5"...a dusting anything less than 0.5" but to each his own

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OK, done. But if it busts, God help you when I change the title back!     :P

 

I like the fact that the 0 line is further north...we may have to deal with sfc temp issues...but that is a way to get it up here...plus I always like seeing precip in southern and central VA versus our usual flying V formation

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Thoughts for tomorrow are simple, think BWI NE gets >1" including MTN up to Phineas. Mapgirl could cash in with 2-3". I'm not too big on ratios, but upper level temps in the h7 are favorable for decent dendrite formation. Also, it has a potentially squally nature to it, and those types are usually high ratio. Nice little freshener for us, even think DCA gets .5

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Thoughts for tomorrow are simple, think BWI NE gets >1" including MTN up to Phineas. Mapgirl could cash in with 2-3". I'm not too big on ratios, but upper level temps in the h7 are favorable for decent dendrite formation. Also, it has a potentially squally nature to it, and those types are usually high ratio. Nice little freshener for us, even think DCA gets .5

system will be moisture starved,  maybe a dusting tops for anyone south of mason Dixon line

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.25 bullseye imby on the Md line. 3 to 4 inches? Lol. every system be they rain or snow seems to trend wetter since December.

I am thinking 

 

.05" = Bust

.15" = Most Likely

.25"= Boom

 

LOL! Poking fun at CWG... if it trends wetter .08, .18, .27"

 

This is a stupid post! I do wonder if we get a northward trend and MD/PA  north to get the snow and we get a flurry at best. Been the recent trend on NS storms!

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So you disagree with every piece of guidance? Based on what? Wag?

Bob, as each of these NS system get closer to use they seem to have ended up north of guidance.. this one is no way near as strong as the other systems so it is probably unfair to compare, but it has seemed that way... I kind of agree with jack_frost only on that detail, but it is not modeled this way now.

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Bob, as each of these NS system get closer to use they seem to have ended up north of guidance.. this one is no way near as strong as the other systems so it is probably unfair to compare, but it has seemed that way... I kind of agree with jack_frost only on that detail, but it is not modeled this way now.

ty I think ur the only one who agrees with me ;)

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All indications are it will remain that way ;) but you could be right, its just likely Baltimore will get some measurable accumulation.

oh don't get me wrong guys, I hope we get pummeled, I just don't think this system has much in the way of moisture, but  as weve all seen, things can and  usually do change ;)

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The forecasting acumen of Jack Frost and Mid Atlantic is fearsome indeed

HAHAHA! ya - just gut feelings have no real scientific or meteorological backing! I will go back to what I do best since weather is not where I make my money.... obviously! 

 

Assuming models are right, Baltimore gets some snow to accumulate and we get dusted, and hopefully a heavy dusting! ANY DAY snow falls from the sky is a winner to me.. so we can hope! I got a small dust yesterday and was very happy!

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