ravensrule Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I thought she was usually at the END of the train.Who wouldn't ride that caboose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Who wouldn't ride that caboose. I raised my hand first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Simulated radar on the 4km NAM looks nice. If it were the truth, would be a nice burst of moderate/heavy snow and many areas getting a quick inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I raised my hand first To late i raised my flag first. I am more patriotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like maybe an inch Baltimore-north....maybe 2 in Philly. Coating for DC maybe. not based on the models...would be more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 .25 bullseye imby on the Md line. 3 to 4 inches? Lol. every system be they rain or snow seems to trend wetter since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GFS is fairly "robust"...no model gives a "coating" to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 .25 bullseye imby on the Md line. 3 to 4 inches? Lol. every system be they rain or snow seems to trend wetter since December. I'm not seeing that...but maybe I am missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z GFS is fairly "robust"...no model gives a "coating" to DC All guidance points to a short period of decent rates on cold ground. Dca has been solid in the ..05-.08 on average. Inch is definitely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 All guidance points to a short period of decent rates on cold ground. Dca has been solid in the ..05-.08 on average. Inch is definitely possible yeah..1/2" to 1" based on guidance...I view a coating the same as a cartopper....25" or less...of course that is entirely possible...excited to whiten our piles a bit...Hi-res NAM composite radar is pretty tasty....GFS has a minor event on monday as well...could develop into something like 1/25...maybe we should just include it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 NAM and GFS have been painting some qpf over the area, with the GFS the better of the two Today's 12Z NAM give DCA-.03, IAD-.01 and BWI-.07 NE is where you want to be with MTN at .11 and Matt's favorite east coast town of PHL with .18 6Z GFS gave BWI-.06, DCA-.04 and IAD-.03 1/2"-1" is probably the best we can hope for barring a miracle band setting up east of the mts. minor event on Monday as well...could materialize into something like 1/25...Let's include it here...perhaps change the title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nice to see monday event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm not seeing that...but maybe I am missing something4k nam map shaded green was in the 3rd contour .2 to .25 blob on the Md border. 15:1 ratio maybe 3 inches or a hair over at that ratio? Cant see it well from my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 yeah..1/2" to 1" based on guidance...I view a coating the same as a cartopper....25" or less...of course that is entirely possible...excited to whiten our piles a bit...Hi-res NAM composite radar is pretty tasty....GFS has a minor event on monday as well...could develop into something like 1/25...maybe we should just include it here. I guess its a matter of opinion...not sure theres a real definition..to me a coating is under an inch down to about 0.5"...a dusting anything less than 0.5" but to each his own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 4k nam map shaded green was in the 3rd contour .2 to .25 blob on the Md border. 15:1 ratio maybe 3 inches or a hair over at that ratio? Cant see it well from my phone. yup...just looked...and no reason to believe you all can't achieve that...or even 10-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 minor event on Monday as well...could materialize into something like 1/25...Let's include it here...perhaps change the title... OK, done. But if it busts, God help you when I change the title back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 OK, done. But if it busts, God help you when I change the title back! I like the fact that the 0 line is further north...we may have to deal with sfc temp issues...but that is a way to get it up here...plus I always like seeing precip in southern and central VA versus our usual flying V formation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thoughts for tomorrow are simple, think BWI NE gets >1" including MTN up to Phineas. Mapgirl could cash in with 2-3". I'm not too big on ratios, but upper level temps in the h7 are favorable for decent dendrite formation. Also, it has a potentially squally nature to it, and those types are usually high ratio. Nice little freshener for us, even think DCA gets .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I want the big Kahuna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thoughts for tomorrow are simple, think BWI NE gets >1" including MTN up to Phineas. Mapgirl could cash in with 2-3". I'm not too big on ratios, but upper level temps in the h7 are favorable for decent dendrite formation. Also, it has a potentially squally nature to it, and those types are usually high ratio. Nice little freshener for us, even think DCA gets .5 system will be moisture starved, maybe a dusting tops for anyone south of mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 system will be moisture starved, maybe a dusting tops for anyone south of mason Dixon line So you disagree with every piece of guidance? Based on what? Wag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 .25 bullseye imby on the Md line. 3 to 4 inches? Lol. every system be they rain or snow seems to trend wetter since December. I am thinking .05" = Bust .15" = Most Likely .25"= Boom LOL! Poking fun at CWG... if it trends wetter .08, .18, .27" This is a stupid post! I do wonder if we get a northward trend and MD/PA north to get the snow and we get a flurry at best. Been the recent trend on NS storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So you disagree with every piece of guidance? Based on what? Wag? Bob, as each of these NS system get closer to use they seem to have ended up north of guidance.. this one is no way near as strong as the other systems so it is probably unfair to compare, but it has seemed that way... I kind of agree with jack_frost only on that detail, but it is not modeled this way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So you disagree with every piece of guidance? Based on what? Wag? I do disagree with any guidance shows shows a whole lot of precip. unless your north of mason Dixon line, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Bob, as each of these NS system get closer to use they seem to have ended up north of guidance.. this one is no way near as strong as the other systems so it is probably unfair to compare, but it has seemed that way... I kind of agree with jack_frost only on that detail, but it is not modeled this way now. ty I think ur the only one who agrees with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 ty I think ur the only one who agrees with me All indications are it will remain that way but you could be right, its just likely Baltimore will get some measurable accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 All indications are it will remain that way but you could be right, its just likely Baltimore will get some measurable accumulation. oh don't get me wrong guys, I hope we get pummeled, I just don't think this system has much in the way of moisture, but as weve all seen, things can and usually do change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The forecasting acumen of Jack Frost and Mid Atlantic is fearsome indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The forecasting acumen of Jack Frost and Mid Atlantic is fearsome indeed lmao, we try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The forecasting acumen of Jack Frost and Mid Atlantic is fearsome indeed HAHAHA! ya - just gut feelings have no real scientific or meteorological backing! I will go back to what I do best since weather is not where I make my money.... obviously! Assuming models are right, Baltimore gets some snow to accumulate and we get dusted, and hopefully a heavy dusting! ANY DAY snow falls from the sky is a winner to me.. so we can hope! I got a small dust yesterday and was very happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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