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Northern Plains Blizzard/Arctic Front 1/26-1/27


Minnesota Meso

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Looking at the Euro of which I can't post maps, I'm getting very concerned about said time frame.  I live in the far eastern part of this state which is technically in the GL/OH Valley subform.  However most of this state is in the Central/Western subform.

 

I copied this quote that I authored over in the GL/OV subform as to what I think will happen.

 

"I agree with the Euro, as this clipper approaches from the NW it will be following a strong baroclinic zone from the surface to H85, seems to me that it will likely strengthen as the low passes over MN, and even the Euro may not be low enough, I haven't looked at the H7 level yet.  We could be looking at a event here in MN that we haven't seen in years, a full blown blizzard that could shut down most of this state.  In some ways I hope I'm wrong and other ways I hope I'm right, as it has been quite some time since we have seen this possibility."

 

Thoughts anyone??

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So will this be any worse than any of the other recent scenarios in western Minnesota? 

 

 

They already have a blizzard warning regarding the SW winds, even before this clipper. (localized to SW Minnesota only)

----

WIND AND VISIBILITY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE  SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45  MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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Well, considering we've been having a ground blizzard a week since the beginning of January, I'm not too worried. Just another 1 to 3 inches of snow, and strong winds to follow.

I'd be much more concerned if snow was falling during the strongest winds. Which won't be the case once again.

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Definitely an annoying pattern sitting here in GFK :/ ... Every other day I've been looping through the 500mb hemispheric height anomalies. As a student, it has been really interesting to see the anomolies recycle themselves like being stuck in an loop if thats the correct way to describe it.

Definitely the correct way to describe it.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

335 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...

.BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL...

CENTRAL... AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED... AND IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY

MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG

AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LONG PRAIRIE THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND

SAINT PETER TO OWATONNA. A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL OCCUR SATURDAY

NIGHT PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... WITH 2 TO

4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH

ON SUNDAY... WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... NORTHWEST

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY SUNDAY

AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS COULD CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE

TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE

SOME... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL PERSIST

INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY

MORNING... FALLING FROM AN EARLY HIGH IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S TO

BELOW ZERO OVER MOST AREAS BY EVENING. READINGS WILL THEN DROP

INTO A RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW BY MONDAY MORNING... WITH

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 50 BELOW ZERO FROM LATE SUNDAY

AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

MNZ041-042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093-251100-

/O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.A.0002.140126T1200Z-140127T0600Z/

DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-

KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-

BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-

FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...

GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...

LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...

REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...

MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

335 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING.

* TIMING: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING... THEN

PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS

OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: MINIMAL NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS

EXPECTED DURING THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...

BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR

TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON

SUNDAY... DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY EVENING... AND INTO A RANGE

FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO

50 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO

TUESDAY.

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Thanks everyone for you thoughts. My Idea is that the 3-5" snowfall band will set up over the Metro TC to areas just north, and SE of MSP with  2-4" over the SW area's of MN.  It looks like another ground blizzard will occur in areas that have seen them earlier this month over western MN. However I also think that travel will be nearly impossible along I35 north of MSP to roughly just south of Hiinckley.  I would also expect that conditions will be very hazardous between MSP and Rochester.  I would also expect that I94 will be closed to the northwest of MSP,  Other closers will be likely along I35 south of Owatonna if not further north, and along I90 between Austin and Rochester. 

 

I think more headlines will be needed that what is shown here.

 

http://origin-www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/

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It is going to be a big deal across parts of MN, especially SW.

I disagree, we live in Minnesota. Most of us know the elements. Everyone will survive..just like the last few "blizzards" we have had.

Talk to me when we see drifts up to roofs of 2 story houses, like we saw in the 60s and 70s.

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I disagree, we live in Minnesota. Most of us know the elements. Everyone will survive..just like the last few "blizzards" we have had.

Talk to me when we see drifts up to roofs of 2 story houses, like we saw in the 60s and 70s.

 

The logic here is quite silly (i.e., that events are not significant unless there are drifts 2 stories high). I lived in MN my entire life, and went to college in ND, so I also "know the elements". If we used that silly logic, well then, every tornado "event" smaller than April 27th or less than Greensburg would not be worth "talking" about. But your response is not unusual in a society that caters to the extreme end of the spectrum and the ignorant. Of course nobody said this was going to be a history making event. And I am quite happy blizzard fatalities are extremely rare in this day and age; that is largely a result of the technological and scientific developments over the past 50 years, not because those events did not compare well to some cherry picked storm from 1970.

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The logic here is quite silly (i.e., that events are not significant unless there are drifts 2 stories high). I lived in MN my entire life, and went to college in ND, so I also "know the elements". If we used that silly logic, well then, every tornado "event" smaller than April 27th or less than Greensburg would not be worth "talking" about. But your response is not unusual in a society that caters to the extreme end of the spectrum and the ignorant. Of course nobody said this was going to be a history making event. And I am quite happy blizzard fatalities are extremely rare in this day and age; that is largely a result of the technological and scientific developments over the past 50 years, not because those events did not compare well to some cherry picked storm from 1970.

 

Well said :clap: (Feel free to delete since my post is OT)

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

307 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

...A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT... THEN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY

NIGHT...

.A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING

THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF

A LINE FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON TO ALBERT LEA. PRIOR TO THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... A PERIOD

OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO

LOCALLY 5 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE

TO THIS EXPECTED SNOWFALL... AND IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT

GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO NEW

RICHMOND TO MENOMONIE... INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA.

THIS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR

LOCATIONS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING DOES TAKE EFFECT... GIVEN

THE EXPECTATION FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH... WILL

DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN THE

BLIZZARD WARNING AREA... WITH MORE SPORADIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS

EXPECTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. THE WINDS WILL

DIMINISH SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO

IMPROVE... BUT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY

PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

MNZ041-042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093-261100-

/O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.140126T1500Z-140127T0600Z/

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.140126T0000Z-140126T1500Z/

DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-

KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-

BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-

FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...

GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...

LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...

REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...

MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

307 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST

SUNDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO

MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

 

* TIMING: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY

MORNING... THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE WORST

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... WITH

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: MINIMAL NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS

EXPECTED DURING THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...

BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT PRIOR TO

THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON

SUNDAY... DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO BY EVENING... AND INTO A RANGE

FROM 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF 30

TO 50 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO

TUESDAY.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

307 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

...A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT... THEN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY

NIGHT...

.A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING

THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF

A LINE FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON TO ALBERT LEA. PRIOR TO THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... A PERIOD

OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO

LOCALLY 5 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE

TO THIS EXPECTED SNOWFALL... AND IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT

GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO NEW

RICHMOND TO MENOMONIE... INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA.

THIS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR

LOCATIONS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING DOES TAKE EFFECT... GIVEN

THE EXPECTATION FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH... WILL

DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN THE

BLIZZARD WARNING AREA... WITH MORE SPORADIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS

EXPECTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. THE WINDS WILL

DIMINISH SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO

IMPROVE... BUT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY

PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

MNZ041-042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093-261100-

/O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.140126T1500Z-140127T0600Z/

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.140126T0000Z-140126T1500Z/

DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-

KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-

BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-

FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...

GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...

LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...

REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...

MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

307 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST

SUNDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO

MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

 

* TIMING: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY

MORNING... THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE WORST

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... WITH

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: MINIMAL NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS

EXPECTED DURING THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...

BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT PRIOR TO

THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON

SUNDAY... DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO BY EVENING... AND INTO A RANGE

FROM 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF 30

TO 50 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO

TUESDAY.

 

Going to have to get your video camera rolling for tomorrow.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

552 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0550 PM BLIZZARD SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W

01/26/2014 RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN TOWN...AND NEIGHBORING TOWNS. HALF BLOCK

VISIBILITY IN TOWN NEAR ZERO OUTSIDE OF TOWN.

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Great vid Zack, bet you were a bit chilled.  I'm even getting hammered in the Valley, wind howling right down the river from the NW.  Already blew out the driveway twice (plow guy is gone this weekend) 3 - 4 foot drifts.  Not sure if I make it out tomorrow morning.  MNDOT is pulling trucks from the bluff ridge tops, advising no travel.

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