Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Saturday looks to be shaping up into quite an interesting day wx wise. Strong WAA up over the cold arctic dome always leads to some fun. NAM goes nuts with damaging winds out on the Cape. Seems like a 1-3 inch type deal inland..while it may mix with rain along the coast. Then strong fropa and windex parameters off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro in good agreement for Saturday 1-3 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 forky interested, scott agrees, brian trying to cut a deal of some sorts. a refresher for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike. Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike. Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere. Yeah TTs are in the mid 30s to around 40 out this way from what I see. Like to get that up to 50+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I figured this type of event favors NNE/mountains where they need it. Any thoughts to amounts up there? What is the ECM showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike. Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere. For us it might be more about the WAA snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good snow growth but I don't see any instability of note here in CT on either the GFS or NAM. No TT spike. Doesn't look like a WINDEX event either down here thought it could be different elsewhere. We need some more low level moisture (like 900mb level). If we get that, then we could see instability rise since lapse rates are decent below about 800-850mb (I'd also like to see that level rise a bit too) Seems like this is largely WAA driven. Maybe it will trend better as we get closer. At least the WAA is strong...but the moisture is putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The moisture looked nonexistant/lame on this past Saturday's event until right up to the very end... not that that means anything for this next system, but something to keep in mind. I don't think this turns into anything significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 We need some more low level moisture (like 900mb level). If we get that, then we could see instability rise since lapse rates are decent below about 800-850mb (I'd also like to see that level rise a bit too) Seems like this is largely WAA driven. Maybe it will trend better as we get closer. At least the WAA is strong...but the moisture is putrid. What would you say it is as of now..1-2 of fluff for most with maybe a spot 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 how could we get more moisture? Should I attach a long sprayer to my well? If enough of us do it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z nam looked ok but............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think clippers are always very good for us. Hopefully it swings to the south waters and goes boom. Wonder if this is a more NNE deal? 12z GFS ens suggest a track better up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think clippers are always very good for us. Hopefully it swings to the south waters and goes boom. Wonder if this is a more NNE deal? 12z GFS ens suggest a track better up there? This thread is for Saturday...not Monday. Saturday is WAA/instability out ahead of a cold front. This is normally a warm setup, but with such cold air in place we can pull off snow despite low level SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Any chance of sw flow OE enhancement on Saturday? I know this is pretty rare, but I'm sure occurrences of this are documented on some dead sea scrolls. Is this setup similar to any past events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This thread is for Saturday...not Monday. Saturday is WAA/instability out ahead of a cold front. This is normally a warm setup, but with such cold air in place we can pull off snow despite low level SW flow. Ooops my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think the digging energy within the polar vortex envelope could dig far enough southward to give us a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think the digging energy within the polar vortex envelope could dig far enough southward to give us a surprise. They can always dig enough or amplify enough or move east or west to give a surprise . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 They can always dig enough or amplify enough or move east or west to give a surprise . lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Any chance of sw flow OE enhancement on Saturday? I know this is pretty rare, but I'm sure occurrences of this are documented on some dead sea scrolls. Is this setup similar to any past events? It looks like there could be some stuff moving off in the LLJ coming from the south, but the boundary layer will turn mild with temps in the U30s for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It looks like there could be some stuff moving off in the LLJ coming from the south, but the boundary layer will turn mild with temps in the U30s for you. I wonder if this is a deal that warms up a bit more as we get close. Would boston def be frozen in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looks even a bit better on the 00z runs.. Most places 1-2..lucky ones will get 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looks even a bit better on the 00z runs.. Most places 1-2..lucky ones will get 2-4 An inch or two if that. Nobody is getting 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 An inch or two if that. Nobody is getting 2-4". If I can eek out an inch, it's an inch more than I got in Tuesday's event. Hell, if I manage a stray flake, I'll have out-performed Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 An inch or two if that. Nobody is getting 2-4". Anyone that gets under some heavier squalls ahead of the cold front will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone that gets under some heavier squalls ahead of the cold front will 4" is one helluva squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 4" is one helluva squall. 1-2 from the WAA for everyone and then whoever gets under a quick hitting squall could get another inch or so FIRST SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE AN INTENSE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING TOWARDS THE NE. DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W TO E SAT MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FEATURE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDING WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND EVEN SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN LATE AFT/EVE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ARCTIC FRONT PASS THROUGH. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...COASTING TO 2 INCHES...BUT 445LOCALLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING OR SNOW SQUALLS...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTERIOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone that gets under some heavier squalls ahead of the cold front will Nobody away from the NW Berks is getting 4". 1-2 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 I like the looks of this. Gonna be some good surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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