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1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

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Through day 7, 5 out of 11 GEFS members have snow on the coast, 2 get it as far west as RDU/GSP in a NE swath.  Including the OP that's 6 of 12 for a day 6/7 model run for the coast, unfortunately only 2 out 12 for getting it past I-95 in NC/SC, a third member is close though….and on second look it does blow up day 8 and hits  GA/SC/GA hard, CAE jackpots on this member 16", LOL.

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Through day 7, 5 out of 11 GEFS members have snow on the coast, 2 get it as far west as RDU/GSP in a NE swath.  Including the OP that's 6 of 12 for a day 6/7 model run for the coast, unfortunately only 2 out 12 for getting it past I-95 in NC/SC, a third member is close though….and on second look it does blow up day 8 and hits  GA/SC/GA hard, CAE jackpots on this member 16", LOL.

 

Which member is this?  And also, I hope it does happen just to make Michelle wrong! :P

 

I have crappy maps that I counted 7 24 hrly members wet through the 30th time frame.. but they are REALLY crappy maps.

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Through day 7, 5 out of 11 GEFS members have snow on the coast, 2 get it as far west as RDU/GSP in a NE swath. Including the OP that's 6 of 12 for a day 6/7 model run for the coast, unfortunately only 2 out 12 for getting it past I-95 in NC/SC, a third member is close though….and on second look it does blow up day 8 and hits GA/SC/GA hard, CAE jackpots on this member 16", LOL.

wow, it hits ga hard two times huh ?
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i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out.  

 

i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here.

Well Almost, The GFS sent the SFC low to Cuba, acting it like an MCS making a right turn against WSW flow at all levels of the atmosphere.  the EURO locked on, the CMC went absolutely ballistic nuts (overdone but still generally right about the storm idea).  GFS had to play catch up and started really honing in inside of 48-60 hours

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Don't you dare start this!! :P

 

I will say this isn't going to cut and run up the Apps, or run up I-95, unless the models are all wrong about the trough placement or depth, odds are this misses SE, which I guess is good news.   Although, I would bet anything we don't see snow from this, but it will be fun to watch it fall apart.

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