packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not confident in the always reliable NW trend? Nope, odds are this misses SE rather than a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out. i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm going to the snow man shop before everybody else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 you are right. It will not snow if it is going to get as cold as models are showing. Not here, not a substantial snow anyway. Flurries don't excite me. If we don't get something the next ten days we will miss out with cold as the ridge will be back and though we can still get something it will be a lot harder. We can wish, beg, all we won't that's just life in the SE. basically after a very wet and somewhat cool summer, most likely we will end up having a cold and dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm looking a lot closer in than you guys. Goofy's pushed it back to Monday, but it's been bringing in southern rain to Ga for some runs now, after it being a tiny blob in mid Fla a few days ago, and a full blow low a week or so back. I think Goofy wants to bring me some sleet late weekend, early week. I'm encouraging it all I can...I have the Moles on it. NWS says I'll be at or below freezing at night the whole time. Just depends on the next cold blast not pushing out the rain that wants to come up. DP's should be a help, if it's day time..but usually these things come at night, so I'll be good...if...if the rain comes up. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Again here is RAH's statement: CURRENTLY NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SUBSEQUENTCYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND CENTRAL NC DRY BUT THIS PATTERN MAY BEGINTRENDING WESTWARD AND PROVIDE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR A MOREVIGOROUS CYCLONE NEAR OUR LATITUDE TO COMBINE MOISTURE WITH WITH THECOLD AIR. -BLAES Exactly what it did at 6z and 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out. i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here. That one still came north at the last minute some (or at least the precipitation field did). I somehow picked up a couple inches IMBY from that one way up here in north-central NC. It was an amazing, widespread storm.Anyways, I like the trends today, but I do feel I might be too far west. A good I-95 special might be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out. i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here. I hope Larry can take a look at some data I sent his way. I've been showing him some stuff for CHS and he's trying to figure out if the Euro is horrible or being consistent. Looking like it might be consistent and different members generating heavier amounts of precip for us in the SE. Which in his basic words is a great sign to prove there aren't members who always show large amounts of snow as a bias. I took a look man.. down that way on the EPS... you look okay. KCHS has 14/51 Euro members (00z) showing accumulating snow. One member is closer to 10-12", another 6-8", some 5-6" etc. Definitely not a bad look for KCHS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out. i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here. With strong blocking like Feb 2010 the models should be able to model storms 5-6 days out fairly well, with these progressive patterns it's to fast. The NAO looks neutral, with a strong -AO, so maybe the models can start being more accurate from day 5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Again here is RAH's statement: CURRENTLY NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND CENTRAL NC DRY BUT THIS PATTERN MAY BEGIN TRENDING WESTWARD AND PROVIDE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE VIGOROUS CYCLONE NEAR OUR LATITUDE TO COMBINE MOISTURE WITH WITH THE COLD AIR. -BLAES Exactly what it did at 6z and 12z today. As it probably will for the continuing model runs...never bet against the NW trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Man, that cold is pretty pronounced. It's what keeps interior sections from getting meaningful precip per 12z GFS. It gets real cold...no its not the temps. Its the dang vortex that is crushing anything that comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i remember vividly the feb 2010 snow that dropped like 8" in summerville (15 miles from downtown chas) and the models picked up on it early and kept it nearly every run from 5-6 days out. i know this is my inner weenie talking but man it is fun to have something to track down here. totally different pattern. We had a juiced southern stream with blocking and the euro did fantastic that year even from 7 days out. Since then we have been in a progressive northern stream dominated flow which is why the euro has been subpar even at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 As it probably will for the continuing model runs...never bet against the NW trends.this year I will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 no its not the temps. Its the dang vortex that is crushing anything that comes east. Good point; but still darn cold around this time-frame. What do you think about the ridge out west collapsing so quickly? Just a post truncation type thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I could see the best potential being as the cold begins to relax a little and we have another piece of energy diving down again from the NW. It would make sense as the NW flow relaxes a little. The GFS hints at it at 192, then goes bath salts at truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 no its not the temps. Its the dang vortex that is crushing anything that comes east. Yes, the vortex causes the cold....which causes the storm to surpress....meaning yes, it's too cold to snow!! Can't win for losing. I would be surprised at a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good point; but still darn cold around this time-frame. What do you think about the ridge out west collapsing so quickly? Just a post truncation type thing? euro ensembles break it down so its correct. I will be glad to see it go. I just hope the negw nao it is advertising trends stronger with the -ao and epo. I would hate to end the . Year with more subzero days than inches of snow. And that looks possible even above 5000ft here in macon county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This thread is a disaster. Guys it's one run. Let's see what the Euro says and then see what they both say over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This thread is a disaster. Guys it's one run. Let's see what the Euro says and then see what they both say over the weekend. Yeah, it's only one. However the EURO this morning had a similar placement. With the 12Z GFS, they're in agreement with the LOW off the coast. I agree though, this weekend will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah, it's only one. However the EURO this morning had a similar placement. With the 12Z GFS, they're in agreement with the LOW off the coast. I agree though, this weekend will tell the tale. Well yea there is a chance....it's just arguing about placement, qpf, etc... that kills me. GFS ENS says some members might be pretty juiced. Has more moisture further west into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 ok now this has my attention. EDIT: nice look at 132. this if is like most will trend north and west. just from watching past storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 this if is like most will trend north and west. just from watching past storms. It won't be easy unless the cold relaxes. Sure hoping it does.. but then it messes it up for some on the coast. It's a win/loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This thread is a disaster. Guys it's one run. Let's see what the Euro says and then see what they both say over the weekend. Be careful or you might hurt someones feelings. We wouldnt want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Real nice sounding for CLT at hour 120: Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z TUE 28 JAN 14 Station: KCLT Latitude: 35.22 Longitude: -80.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 184 SFC 997 207 -4.8 -17.5 36 12.7 -7.8 40 9 268.6 268.7 265.6 271.3 0.97 2 950 584 -8.8 -18.7 45 9.9 -10.9 33 12 268.3 268.4 265.2 270.9 0.92 3 900 1001 -9.6 -23.4 31 13.9 -12.2 327 8 271.6 271.7 267.0 273.5 0.64 4 850 1446 -5.5 -25.4 19 19.9 -9.6 256 18 280.4 280.5 272.3 282.1 0.57 5 800 1923 -5.0 -15.7 43 10.7 -8.0 257 32 285.8 286.1 276.7 290.0 1.41 6 750 2427 -7.6 -11.5 74 3.9 -8.9 257 40 288.3 288.7 278.9 294.6 2.12 7 700 2962 -10.3 -12.3 85 2.1 -10.9 251 44 291.1 291.5 280.2 297.5 2.12 8 650 3529 -13.5 -14.1 96 0.5 -13.7 245 49 293.7 294.0 281.2 299.7 1.98 9 600 4134 -16.6 -16.7 99 0.1 -16.7 242 55 296.9 297.2 282.3 302.2 1.72 10 550 4782 -20.9 -21.0 99 0.1 -20.9 245 62 299.3 299.5 282.8 303.4 1.30 11 500 5481 -24.6 -24.8 98 0.2 -24.6 247 71 303.0 303.2 284.0 306.4 1.02 12 450 6240 -29.1 -29.3 98 0.2 -29.1 244 79 306.7 306.8 285.0 309.2 0.75 13 400 7075 -33.3 -33.7 97 0.3 -33.4 241 94 311.7 311.8 286.6 313.6 0.56 14 350 8003 -38.5 -38.7 98 0.2 -38.5 242 109 316.8 316.9 288.2 318.2 0.38 15 300 9045 -46.2 -46.4 98 0.2 -46.2 243 120 320.2 320.3 289.0 321.0 0.20 16 250 10236 -52.6 -54.7 78 2.1 -52.7 246 126 327.9 327.9 291.2 328.3 0.09 17 200 11668 -55.0 -64.3 31 9.3 -55.2 250 119 345.7 345.7 295.7 345.8 0.03 18 150 13503 -56.4 -70.9 14 14.5 -56.6 249 115 372.9 372.9 301.1 373.0 0.02 19 100 16033 -62.5 -79.3 9 16.8 -62.7 252 95 407.0 407.0 306.1 407.0 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Mr. Sutherland latest post: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/page-18#entry2672771 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Counted 8/11 6z GFS mems on the model center that have at-least some SN for coastal areas, and based on just the mean compared to new 12z mean, imagine this runs individuals will be even better given 24 and 72 hour cumulative precip panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the cmc next Friday. No lack of qpf there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the cmc next Friday. No lack of qpf there. Superbowl get's a snowstorm per GFS, that would be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 A balmy -7 up this way. NC Mountain areas a chilly -25+/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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