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1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

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THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM ALONG THE  GULF COAST STATES ON TUE...WITH A
BAND OF MIXED PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONS TO A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WAVY FRONTAL
BNDRY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IF A DEFINED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION IS
ABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND BACK INTO THE COLD AIR.

 

Update from the HPC this morning...
 

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That 4" prob map CAD just posted is a head scratcher as the QPF maps which were issued at roughly the same time overnight are dry for he upstate into WNC. Tells me they are at least giving some weight to the SREF probs which are still bullish for this area. Count 3 6z GFS mems that went nuts in SC just NW of CHS, 18+". 6z op is a coveted >24hr event at PGV, with around 1" total liquid. Starts around midnight Wednesday and does not finish until Thursday morning.

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06z GFS output for KCAE (COBB):

 

Quite a bit colder vs 06z NAM with the pure snow thing.

140129/0300Z  69  05008KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
140129/0600Z  72  03009KT  24.9F  SNOW   12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   13:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/0900Z  75  01010KT  24.3F  SNOW   12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145   12:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
140129/1200Z  78  03009KT  24.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104   13:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
140129/1500Z  81  04009KT  25.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   13:1|  4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
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Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too.

 

I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see.

 

I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in.

 

Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now.

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  On 1/26/2014 at 12:38 PM, RaleighWx said:

Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too.

 

I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see.

 

I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in.

 

Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now.

6z GFS is the most westward run of that model yet. Definitely good trends overnight!

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  On 1/26/2014 at 12:38 PM, RaleighWx said:

Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too.

 

I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see.

 

I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in.

 

Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now.

89 was a great storm. Very hurtful for me; I had come home (to Durham) from college for Christmas break and watched the clouds stay to east dropping snow on folks east of Raleigh. Back then just had weather radio, news papers, and TV.

 

accum.19891224.gif  

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Always nice lift located in the NW upstate. Love seeing the high prob showing up in that region.

  On 1/26/2014 at 12:43 PM, calculus1 said:

Interesting that the SREF's are showing two different regions with high probabilities of greater than 1 inch of snowfall:  the coastline hugger region and the inland region.  This would suggest to me that the SREF members fall into one of those two camps, with not much in between...

 

 

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  On 1/26/2014 at 12:38 PM, packfan98 said:

Can you provide a little more info about this map? How is it generated and what does the 95th percentile mean? Thanks!

It's a WPC map that that uses the SREF output, and in this case, the likely hood that a particular event will occur in those areas. All WPC data.

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