frazdaddy Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 When models show a snowstorm over our houses 5, 6, 7 days out, even 10 days out, and it turns out not to be correct, which I would say happens 80+% of the time, how many people believe that those depictions are correct? Hopefully, not most of us. The storm, if it's there, usually turns out differently. So why, when all of the models show a storm that's suppressed, but well within the "margin or error" for course correction, at those leads is there all of a sudden no chance for a change in the progs? It's suppressed so it's guaranteed to be cold and dry. No. Most of the guidance forms a system off the SE coast. A few NWS offices, filled with people who get paid to do this stuff, are already discussing. So for this situation: That the system has broad support of actually forming is a postive. That some operational models give some wintry weather to coastal areas is a postive. That the system is shown to be too far south and east at >D+5 is a postive. That the models frequently tend to press the cold air in the medium/long range is a positive. That a snowstorm isn't shown in my backyard at >D+5 is a positive. It's not a perfect pattern, and there are never any guarantees, but the players are on the field and in the general vicinity of where we want. Maybe the models are exactly right with the placement of the actic boundary this time. I don't know, but I'll take my chances that they're not exactly right. This is the best look we've had all winter for a widespread winter storm. Watch the trends. As I said yesterday, it wouldn't take a whole lot of a change to change things a whole lot. Maybe it all goes away. But I suspect we'll start to see some better looks from the operationals soon. If not, we'll have more opportunities. Either way, we're going to score. Very well said and correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z GFS has some energy in Texas that's just kind of stalling there. If this could trend stronger or if the northern energy can come down and sync up it could be what we're looking for. Might want to watch that over the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z GFS has some energy in Texas that's just kind of stalling there. If this could trend stronger or if the northern energy can come down and sync up it could be what we're looking for. Might want to watch that over the next couple of runs. Interesting little tiny amount of moisture into the far NW corner of the FL panhandle and far Southern AL/MS with 2m temps cold.. low res maps though.. around hour 117. Nothing that really matters at this point. hr 120, a bit more pronounced, still light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm NOT a Model Watcher, NOR a Forecaster, just a Weenie, that loves the Weather, (as most of us do)... I was Glancing @ the Weenie Map(s) on Weather Wunderground; even it "Pops" a GOM Low on the west coast of FL. Moves it across & Up/just off Our Coast with-in the time frame(s) Were talking about... Giving meaningful Precip.. Correct Me if I'm wrong here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 hr 126.. might be a flurry way down south in SC, portion of GA. 850s not bad, along w/ 2 m. Still nothing to note moisture wise. a bit after, moisture trying to fill in on coastal sc.. 850s / 2m cold enough possibly.. tiny bit around GSP/ NW SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looks like some light snow falling for my SC peeps at hr 129. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Per the GFS light snow across portions of NC @132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Precip skips all of KCAE/midlands of SC.. but coastal areas of SC look okay. Myrtle Beach gets a bit heavier precip as snow most likely.. same with coastal NC again. Some lighter stuff around GSP/Central NC. Not the worst look... at least something's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Per the GFS light snow across portions of NC @132. Baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Coastal SC is overdue for any type of winter storm. It has been over three years since the Charleston area even had a major threat (the ice during that storm at the beginning of 2011). Looks interesting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not much moisture to work with but it will be interesting to see if this trends better. It's close to something more widespread but not quite there. We need that cold to relax just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not much moisture to work with but it will be interesting to see if this trends better. It's close to something more widespread but not quite there. We need that cold to relax just a little bit. Notice that little blob of precip that basically just hangs out over NW SC? Or are my maps just screwy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't say it was impossible just highly unlikely and whether you like him or not (and I don't particularly) JB has been very accurate so far this winter and unfortunately he and JD agree with me. Looking at the similarities between this winter and the 93-94 one, it is almost eerie how much it has fallen in line with that year and while no analog is perfect, we can learn a lot from past similar patterns and that is what appears to be happening here. I would never be foolhardy enough to make a flat out statement that we would not conceivably get a storm, but if I were a betting man I would wager heavily we would not. Not in the least upset if any of you disagree with me and I personally hope, if you do, that you are the correct one. Just seems to me that with this depth of cold and in a largely nW flow, it will be very hard to get moisture up here until it warms up and that probably means rain or zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Definitely farther inland with the precip than both the 0z and 6z runs. More folks get snow. Little by little.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Definitely farther inland with the precip than both the 0z and 6z runs. More folks get snow. Little by little.... Quite quite cold during/after this little coastal event shown. 2m 0c poking real deep down into central FL.. get your oranges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Check out the individual ensembles for this run for the time period around 126 and 132. On 6z, there was one amped up moisture laden individual, with SEVERAL just off the coast. I am guessing there will be at least a couple of pretty good members for the eastern Carolinas on 12z. Trends, trends..............This threat is very real for you guys out that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't say it was impossible just highly unlikely and whether you like him or not (and I don't particularly) JB has been very accurate so far this winter and unfortunately he and JD agree with me. Looking at the similarities between this winter and the 93-94 one, it is almost eerie how much it has fallen in line with that year and while no analog is perfect, we can learn a lot from past similar patterns and that is what appears to be happening here. I would never be foolhardy enough to make a flat out statement that we would not conceivably get a storm, but if I were a betting man I would wager heavily we would not. Not in the least upset if any of you disagree with me and I personally hope, if you do, that you are the correct one You make a good point. I just think there are enough differences to give us more opportunities this year. Hopefully, they will be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Definitely farther inland with the precip than both the 0z and 6z runs. More folks get snow. Little by little.... We should take the statement/advise from RAH(last nights discussion): We need to watch the trends....meaning we'll have to watch many more model runs leading up to this potential event....but what's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We should take the statement/advise from RAH(last nights discussion): We need to watch the trends....meaning we'll have to watch many more model runs leading up to this potential event....but what's new. There's more than one to keep in mind. System forming close to Texas a bit later on.. at least wanting to. It'll go post truncation and be ugly im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, temps rise quickly after possibly giving some of AL some zr/sleet or so. Truncation ew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Just needs to sharpen up and a lot of people would be in business. Still screws RDU somehow, which shouldn't be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 ok now this has my attention. EDIT: nice look at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Low forming on TX coast...check, suppressed OTS in the 5-7 day range....check, plenty of good cold air.....check Not sure what everyone is expecting but at this stage it actually looks pretty good from where I am sitting. Its way better than having something wet and warm and hoping it produces its own cold or some long shot setup where we have to thread 10 needles to see a sloppy inch with BL issues all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 ok now this has my attention. My guess is some GEFS members will look sweet for your area even. Might even be some more bigger widespread events shown. I don't have access to each individual member; hopefully someone will update with those. I just have the plumes for limited locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My guess is some GEFS members will look sweet for your area even. Might even be some more bigger widespread events shown. I don't have access to each individual member; hopefully someone will update with those. I just have the plumes for limited locations. Yep, this is shaping up to be another PGV special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep, this is shaping up to be another PGV special. Not confident in the always reliable NW trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not confident in the always reliable NW trend? Man, that cold is pretty pronounced. It's what keeps interior sections from getting meaningful precip per 12z GFS. It gets real cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't say it was impossible just highly unlikely and whether you like him or not (and I don't particularly) JB has been very accurate so far this winter and unfortunately he and JD agree with me. Looking at the similarities between this winter and the 93-94 one, it is almost eerie how much it has fallen in line with that year and while no analog is perfect, we can learn a lot from past similar patterns and that is what appears to be happening here. I would never be foolhardy enough to make a flat out statement that we would not conceivably get a storm, but if I were a betting man I would wager heavily we would not. Not in the least upset if any of you disagree with me and I personally hope, if you do, that you are the correct one. Just seems to me that with this depth of cold and in a largely nW flow, it will be very hard to get moisture up here until it warms up and that probably means rain or zr you are right. It will not snow if it is going to get as cold as models are showing. Not here, not a substantial snow anyway. Flurries don't excite me. If we don't get something the next ten days we will miss out with cold as the ridge will be back and though we can still get something it will be a lot harder. We can wish, beg, all we won't that's just life in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep, this is shaping up to be another PGV special. Trends my friend. This has been a great model run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Just needs to sharpen up and a lot of people would be in business. Still screws RDU somehow, which shouldn't be hard. Yes, I'd like to see that....with the LOW forming in the gulf rather than in the Atlantic. To me this is trending to be a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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