1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[deltadog03]

HR36 norther stream a bit further west, and southern stream a bit further SE than 12z run.

[burgertime]

@42 it's closed off and in northern Bajah. This is a big change. 

[rduwx]

Hard to tell not having vort on the 5h but it does seem a little better 48

[burgertime]

@48 our energy in the SW is further north of the 12z it looks like. My maps are kind of difficult to read TBH. 

[burgertime]

This one probably won't get the job done but it's another step. Northern energy digging more. Southern energy further east and slightly north. Nice step. 

[deltadog03]

BIG changes at hr 54...northern energy is further W (over W WY) and southern is DEF further SE. (near baja)

[burgertime]

@60 again further east with southern energy but looks like it's going to be a tad too slow on this run. 

[burgertime]

Another good change @66. On 12z for the same time frame our southern energy is closed off. 00z has it open and it looks like it's very close to really getting swept up into the flow. 

[deltadog03]

HR 72 still a big difference, but I think the EURO is gonna leave this in the baja region...I think its bias is coming into play, but so FAR big changes in the right direction... QPF much more on the coast and lighter amounts inland so far.  Mind you, the 12z euro had NADA inland and barely anything on the coast...

[burgertime]

Nice bit of moisture in GA on this run. Low popping off the SC coast near CHS. 

[rduwx]

Definitely more precip further inland at 78.

[burgertime]

HR 72 still a big difference, but I think the EURO is gonna leave this in the baja region...I think its bias is coming into play, but so FAR big changes in the right direction... QPF much more on the coast and lighter amounts inland so far.  Mind you, the 12z euro had NADA inland and barely anything on the coast...

 

You def. see it at the surface. This is so close to being something BIG. 

[deltadog03]

HR 78, again euro bias IMO with the energy holding in SW, BUT BIG changes with QPF....Much more closer to NAM...I would say now btwn NAM and GFS for the qpf on the coast and certainly inland areas.  

[packbacker]

Looks very close to GFS. Nice run

[burgertime]

Euro leaves the energy in the Baja as Chris said. Looks like @84 it's starting to pull out but not before hammering the coast of SC. Euro maps have 2-4 in CHS with 4-6 in SE coastal sections of SC. 

[burgertime]

HR 78, again euro bias IMO with the energy holding in SW, BUT BIG changes with QPF....Much more closer to NAM...I would say now btwn NAM and GFS for the qpf on the coast and certainly inland areas.  

 

Yep it finally ejects that energy @90. Tomorrow's runs will be fun. Hell the Euro ENS will probably look sweet. 

[ILMRoss]

So I'm hearing that the runs are closer to the NAM... Does this mean that the NAM should garner some respect? I've heard such mixed reviews about the NAM on the forum.

[burgertime]

See everyone in the AM. This was all I needed to see. Big changes tonight. Let's hope they keep coming tomorrow. This should trend better over the next 48 hours. 

[packbacker]

Of the 11 GEFS members I saw 7 were big dogs and they all ejected the Mx low. The other 4 had two confined to the coast like the Op GFS/Euro and 2 whiffs.

[LovingGulfLows]

Based on what Robert wrote a few hours ago on facebook(I think this is before the GFS/Euro runs), he thinks this will remain suppressed and only affect the atlantic coastline,immediate inland areas, and deep south regions.

 

 

By WxSouth

NAM still has snow far deep south. That's 6" of snow its forecasting in southern middle Ga, the northern Florida panhandle and southern Alabama. It's the only model though with this much moisture and overrunning near the Gulf Coast. The cold will be there, the question is how much moisture. With the latest snow in Tx, La, Ms, and few sleet and snow reports yesterday near the Gulf this won't surprise me. The storm should remain very supressed so nothing in Tennessee, and the western Carolinas, northern Alabama, Georgia or northern Miss. from this event. But keep your eyes peeled closer to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
(sleet not shown)

[chapelhill]

Yep it finally ejects that energy @90. Tomorrow's runs will be fun. Hell the Euro ENS will probably look sweet. 

Thanks Burgertime for the extended PBP.! I will wait for the 00z euro tomorrow night for verification, but I greatly appreciate your extended overall guidance on all of this. Here's to happy final sleds on the ground for all the snow lovers in the SE on Wednesday! or shortly thereafter!

:snowman:

[dsaur]

Those of you potentially on the borders of this maybe storm prepare now to be tough.  Steel your selves to the idea that folks 60 miles away might get the snow of a life time, and you will miss it....completely...with sun!  If this is like 73 it will turn the losers minds to mush.  Hear the words of someone who knows.  You have no idea how bad a storm with amounts like that, that just misses you by a hair, can destroy you, lol. especially when it misses you south!!!  That's the dagger, with the 40 year poison on the tip.  Oh, you think you're over it, healed, hardened.  More mature, seeing the bigger picture...then this confronts you, and it all comes rushing back.  Oh, the humanity!!!  T

[Buckethead]

KCAE has finally pulled the trigger and introduced  a chance (20%)  rain/snow for Tues. pm...KCHS showing ~50% chances for snow sleet .  

[John1122]

A lot of you guys are going to like the 06z GFS. Significant shift northwards from 00z and great totals went from hugging the coast to around 75-100 miles inland. 06z NAM also a monster for about the same areas. Is this a blip? A trend that will continue? 12z should be exciting as all get out.

 

06z NAM and 06Z GFS clowns.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like every model now has snow in KCAE except the UKMET as of this minute at least.

 

Soundings vary and precipitation type vary, but they all agree to have snow at some point.

 

For example:  06z NAM goes back and forth between snow to sleet to heavy snow to heavy sleet.. continuing on before being pure snow.

 

Anyone in the counties right North and West of KCAE such as Lexington County, Saluda, Newberry, etc will be much more likely to see pure snow since the 850 line is just South of those areas after an initial rain & mixing phase.  (This is still speaking of the 06z NAM.)

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================

140128/0700Z  49  01010KT  43.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
140128/0800Z  50  02010KT  40.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100
140128/0900Z  51  03012KT  37.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|100
140128/1000Z  52  03012KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10    0|  0|100
140128/1100Z  53  03012KT  31.7F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.046    2:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.14   20| 80|  0
140128/1200Z  54  03012KT  29.6F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.043    3:1|  0.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.19   40| 60|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/1300Z  55  04013KT  27.8F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.054    3:1|  0.2|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|100|  0
140128/1400Z  56  04013KT  27.2F  SNPL    8:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.034    4:1|  0.5|| 0.26|| 0.00|| 0.28   64| 36|  0
140128/1500Z  57  04011KT  26.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  1.3|| 0.26|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
140128/1600Z  58  04010KT  24.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062    8:1|  2.0|| 0.26|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
140128/1700Z  59  04010KT  24.9F  SNPL   10:1| 0.6|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.060    9:1|  2.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.45   67| 33|  0
140128/1800Z  60  04010KT  25.1F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.028    8:1|  2.7|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.48   30| 70|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/1900Z  61  04010KT  26.0F  SNPL    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    8:1|  2.7|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.49   76| 24|  0
140128/2000Z  62  04009KT  25.8F  SNPL    7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.013    8:1|  2.8|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.50   75| 25|  0
140128/2100Z  63  04010KT  26.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  2.8|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.50    0|  0|  0
140128/2200Z  64  04008KT  25.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  2.9|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
140128/2300Z  65  04007KT  24.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    8:1|  3.0|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
140129/0000Z  66  04007KT  24.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  3.0|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.52  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/0100Z  67  04007KT  23.8F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  3.1|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
140129/0200Z  68  05006KT  23.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    8:1|  3.2|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
140129/0300Z  69  06005KT  23.4F  SNOW   12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  3.3|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
140129/0400Z  70  07005KT  23.1F  SNOW   16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55  100|  0|  0
140129/0500Z  71  06006KT  22.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|  0
140129/0600Z  72  05005KT  23.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/0700Z  73  06004KT  23.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|  0
140129/0800Z  74  04004KT  23.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|  0
140129/0900Z  75  03005KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.4|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|  0
140129/1000Z  76  05005KT  24.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
140129/1100Z  77  06007KT  24.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
140129/1200Z  78  06005KT  24.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/1300Z  79  05007KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
140129/1400Z  80  05009KT  24.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
140129/1500Z  81  05009KT  23.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   13:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

[LovingGulfLows]

GFS needs to keep truckin northwest. About another 75 miles or so for a decent snowfall here. I'm becoming a bit more interested now with getting a small snowfall here(1-3 inches). Still, I remain rather skeptical.

[packbacker]

6z GEFS mean even wetter than 0z. It's a shame HPC isn't buying the GFS.

[weatherlover]

How far west in NC does the mean bring the previous?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

GFS just took a huge left shift in the precip field. Looks like it's picking up that energy out west. Big change from earlier runs.

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe I haven't rubbed all the sleep out of my eyes yet, but it sounds like things turned much better last night. Are they all trending west now? The GFS that was leading the way saying no snow is now going west, too? The ensembles for the GFS now have good snow? And the NAM and Euro look good, too? Am I still dreaming or is the currect summary?