beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I mean, it would be one thing if this was the 324 hour GFS -- but this is starting at 68 hours on the NAM. Does everybody realize just how rare an event this would be? I don't think I really know. Once in 500 years? IKR. Hard to imagine over inch of ice with temps near 25. Would not be good for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Trends are the friend. If Euro gets back on board this is going to get really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looks like there could be freezing rain in north florida around 90 to 96 hours judging by the cod soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs. I'm probably wishcasting which is why I kept it in banter but I think the GFS is finally catching on. I thought the 18z NAM was garbage and thankfully 00z proved that. I really have a hard time buying that over the next few runs the GFS doesn't latch on to the idea of that southern energy staying stronger longer. Energy out west is still anyone's guess until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Comparing 12z GFS v/s 0z GFS, much closer... 0z 12z You should try the 06z and the 00z. 3 runs, stupid kind of different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looks like there could be freezing rain in north florida around 90 to 96 hours judging by the cod soundingsSurface temps are a torch in FL around that time frame. Near +10c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Was there any new data ingest for tonight's runs? I feel like we've seen this show before a few years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It is Cold. Not in our neck of the woods but the gfs has decided to come back to the party. At the front door anyway. Thanks! It's better. Good trend. Better than what I thought it would show. The streams still don't look that close to phasing to me. Maybe we need a kicker to kick that SW vort out faster. I think the northern energy will come in stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Surface temps are a torch in FL around that time frame. Near +10c. Um..no. Just south of the georgia border at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs. My guess, and only a guess is that the GFS and its progressive northern bias and the euro with its holding energy back in the SW. IF* the ENS of both models didn't look much better/wetter than the op runs, I would say we were all in trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Seriously, if the NAM was right, how far back would have to go back to find a storm like this in the Panhandle? Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 UK grazes the coast, only precip through 72, but it looks a tick east of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The UK Met looks west from 12z. It does have a bias towards suppression, though, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Um..no. Just south of the georgia border at 96 hours Thanks for correcting me, I see what you are talking about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CMC coming back to papa ... popping low in Gulf at 48 hours -- southern s/w a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CMC better, but still pretty dry at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's pretty unreal the changes in the precipitation output & H5 from 18z -> 00z GFS along the gulf coast. I had a feeling the GFS may cave slightly, but not wholesale changes in one run. Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well 5h map looked better, but end result pretty much the same for Canadian. EDIT: Spoke too soon -- 84 hour map nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have a feeling the CMC will be closer toward the NAM tonight. The pieces of energy looking very good so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 At 84, the GGEM looks like a carbon copy of the GFS with respects to precip fields. Edit: It's a big hit for east of 95...might have to make it HWY17. Definitely confined to the coast. Great runs for coastal guys and gals tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hmmm, maybe I didn't wait long enough 72 hour map didn't look so hot, but at 84, it's getting juiced up over the gulf and extreme SE N.C. Much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fishel at WRAL just referenced the changing model of the gfs and potential impacts. It ain't over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hmmm, maybe I didn't wait long enough 72 hour map didn't look so hot, but at 84, it's getting juiced up over the gulf and extreme SE N.C. Much better than 12z. You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's kind of like the GFS in N.C./S.C but more like the NAM with colder/wetter solution on the Gulf Coast. Bottom line: reversed itself considerably from 12z trend. You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Night and Day change with the CMC as well. Looks very GFS ish, but a bit wetter than GFS. Trends were great for those runs tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just looking forward to these pieces of energy being drug tested further tomorrow.....hopefully good for many....it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS was encouraging to see. Now we have to see if we can get the trend northward in the moisture to give the mountains, foothills and piedmont areas snow. I am glad to see the this trend tonight, and it makes the rest of the model runs very important. The models do not handle phasing very well, so lets see what happens as we move forward. I am not ready to write this one off yet. Yes it is and the rollercoaster ride is far from over. Now since the trend has gotten better still questions remain on the amount or any phasing and the strenght and charactistics downstream over the NE and Canada. Its interesting at the difference between nam and gfs with the PV over Canada. Nam is weaker and further south while GFS is stronger and north. Could def allow some play for a N/W trend to come in. Seriously, if the NAM was right, how far back would have to go back to find a storm like this in the Panhandle? I'm not sure but that would be devastating for that area. But there is a good list below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just looking forward to these pieces of energy being drug tested further tomorrow.....hopefully good for many....it's close. Agreed. Models start ingesting solid food soon and we'll get an idea of what's really going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's funny, I was reading that Wikipedia piece just a minute ago -- a few 2-4 inch snows mentioned, but really nothing at all about big ice or sleet storms. My guess is, quite unprecedented. Yes it is and the rollercoaster ride is far from over. Now since the trend has gotten better still questions remain on the amount or any phasing and the strenght and charactistics downstream over the NE and Canada. Its interesting at the difference between nam and gfs with the PV over Canada. Nam is weaker and further south while GFS is stronger and north. Could def allow some play for a N/W trend to come in. I'm not sure but that would be devastating for that area. But there is a good list below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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