1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[DLI4SCwx]

Will be interesting to see if the ensemble members later show more precip. for us further east.

[Shawn]

Will be interesting to see if the ensemble members later show more precip. for us further east.

 

With the look of this Euro; they surely will!  If not better than before even!

[DLI4SCwx]

With the look of this Euro; they surely will!  If not better than before even!

 

What's the rule of thumb in these(this) situations ? Is it to typically go  with the Op run or go with the Ensembles? Or , perhaps a combo of the two?

[Shawn]

What's the rule of thumb in these(this) situations ? Is it to typically go  with the Op run or go with the Ensembles? Or , perhaps a combo of the two?

 

As the HPC(WPC) would.. Blend of the best two models handling the weather best.

 

Last I heard.. they were taking the Euro ens/op blend or something along those lines with the upcoming stuff... even mentioning a storm developing like what we are following.

 

Ensembles are always best imo.   Generally you will see discussions about the GEFS or Euro Ens. or a blend of both for forecasts especially from the bigger offices like WPC.

 

This thread wouldn't be here w/o the Euro Ensembles showing what they do in my honest opinion.

 

I sent you a PM btw.

[crossthread]

 Per 0Z Thu 1/23 GFS:

 

- Two systems during the critical period as mentioned already

 

- System #1: A decent slug of Gulf moisture moves NE toward a developing sfc low ~300 miles off of the SE coast late on 1/28 to 1/29. The heaviest qpf is ~0.75 to 1.5" but the heaviest remains 50-75 miles offshore GA/SC. It comes closer to the NC coast. SAV/CHS/MYR receive .01"/.03"/.09", that Tuesday night, all of which at CHS/MYR/SAV would seemingly be light snow based on 850' s of 0 to -5 C, cold NNE to N winds not allowing warming from the ocean, and sfc temp.'s mainly between 31 and 23 F. Much heavier snow hits ILM with 0.26" of qpf and -5 C 850's there...so could be 3" there and as much as 4" further up the coast.

 

- System #2: A Miller A forms on 1/30 but then falls apart 1/31 (after producing 1-5" of snow for the upper coast of TX and SW LA) as it appears that the energy possibly is somehow transferred to another low that develops well off of the SE coast on 1/31. This gives SAV 0.02" of qpf as something and 0.07"/0.18'/0.22" of qpf as snow at MYR/ILM/HAT on 1/31.

I LOVE that scenario...

[DLI4SCwx]

As the HPC(WPC) would.. Blend of the best two models handling the weather best.

 

Last I heard.. they were taking the Euro ens/op blend or something along those lines with the upcoming stuff... even mentioning a storm developing like what we are following.

 

Ensembles are always best imo.   Generally you will see discussions about the GEFS or Euro Ens. or a blend of both for forecasts especially from the bigger offices like WPC.

 

This thread wouldn't be here w/o the Euro Ensembles showing what they do in my honest opinion.

 

I sent you a PM btw.

 

Thanks Shawn! I got it and replied back.  Here's to hoping fun times are ahead for us.

[GaWx]

1. The 0Z 1/23 Euro gives the NC coast 1-4" on 1/28-9.

 

2. It then gives parts of NW Ga (NW of ATL) 1-2" on 1/30 to early 1/31 from a system that is quickly petering out 

[burgertime]

Word to the wise for many in this thread. Do not get caught up in details. Look at the overall flow and the bigger picture. You can see on last nights runs that there were a lot of near misses. That is perfectly fine this far out. Check out 6z for some really close calls, it's extremely close to popping a big dog. With all that energy flying around at 500mb something is going to connect and someone WILL get snow in the SE. It seems this year at 5h much of the energy has overperformed when it becomes crunch time. If that trend continues I have a hard time buying the entire SE blanks on this setup.

[NCSNOW]

From Rah AFD:

 

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SIMILAR TO RECENT ARCTIC
INVASIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS. BOTH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IN CANADA SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
THIS ALLOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRENGTHENING H5
JET OF 100+KTS TO DIVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CURRENTLY NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SUBSEQUENT
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND CENTRAL NC DRY BUT THIS PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TRENDING WESTWARD AND PROVIDE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE
VIGOROUS CYCLONE NEAR OUR LATITUDE TO COMBINE MOISTURE WITH WITH THE
COLD AIR. -BLAES

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[mackerel_sky]

Hopefully one of these systems will trend wetter as we get closer. This may be the best set up we get this winter. Looks good this far out

[FallsLake]

 

From Rah AFD:

 

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SIMILAR TO RECENT ARCTIC

INVASIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH

MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS. BOTH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC

SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE A BIT LATE TUESDAY

AND WEDNESDAY AS THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IN CANADA SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

THIS ALLOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRENGTHENING H5

JET OF 100+KTS TO DIVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND

INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID

ATLANTIC COAST. CURRENTLY NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SUBSEQUENT

CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND CENTRAL NC DRY BUT THIS PATTERN MAY BEGIN

TRENDING WESTWARD AND PROVIDE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE

VIGOROUS CYCLONE NEAR OUR LATITUDE TO COMBINE MOISTURE WITH WITH THE

COLD AIR. -BLAES

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

Looks like that trend has began. Look at the 6z GFS at hour 108:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_108_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[NavarreDon]

Word to the wise for many in this thread. Do not get caught up in details. Look at the overall flow and the bigger picture. You can see on last nights runs that there were a lot of near misses. That is perfectly fine this far out. Check out 6z for some really close calls, it's extremely close to popping a big dog. With all that energy flying around at 500mb something is going to connect and someone WILL get snow in the SE. It seems this year at 5h much of the energy has overperformed when it becomes crunch time. If that trend continues I have a hard time buying the entire SE blanks on this setup.

 

Great post & some wise words for a lot of us on the board to live by!

[WeatherNC]

Banter: Don't look now, but the 6z DGEX went nuts with the stalled Artic front, 4" from CHS to 1' at MHX next Tuesday night. Even an inch or two for JAX and Waycross.

[packfan98]

Go ahead and look.  I haven't seen that many fantasy SE snows on the DGEX so far.  Could be a good sign??????

[FLweather]

Banter: Don't look now, but the 6z DGEX went nuts with the stalled Artic front, 4" from CHS to 1' at MHX next Tuesday night. Even an inch or two for JAX and Waycross.

Go ahead and look.  I haven't seen that many fantasy SE snows on the DGEX so far.  Could be a good sign??????

 

 

After looking at the GFS,Euro and DGEX I'd say there is two distinct storm possibilities next week. Yesterdays euro showed a coastal forming around 120 and the 18z dgex showed for the same time frame. Now it seems like another one around 144. Things could change for the better as soon we near the 84 hour timeframe.

[Tacoma]

GSP not mentioning anything about the storm possibilities around the 29-1 in the long range, thought by now there may be mention of keeping an eye on that time period. maybe in the next day or two GSP will jump on board.

[timnc910]

Fwiw accuwx has snow in my forecast for next Wednesday.but y'all know how that goes.

[Tacoma]

Fwiw accuwx has snow in my forecast for next Wednesday.but y'all know how that goes.

yep I know its 7 days out but Accuweather is also showing the mtns. with snow on the 30th. GSP not buying it yet as I said above.

[shaggy]

Not to put the bad mouth on our coastal friends but for us a suppressed solution that gives them snow is always the best place for us inland guys to be because if there are any north shifts it doesn't kill our chances.

 

Hoping the coastal guys and us get crushed but that rarely happens.

 

MHX is usually tight lipped so for them to make this kind of statement should get some attention.

 

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE SIGNIF LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE CST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS SHARPENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM
THE W. THESE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS LOW AS COULD EASILY REMAIN OFF THE CST...HOWEVER
LATEST RUNS SHOW DECENT QPF POSS NEAR IMD CST AND THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP SMALL POPS
NEAR CST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIF SNOW EVENT.

[SnowNiner]

Ensembles, and energy floating around, etc...I'm still waiting on an actual operational run to show a hit in the carolinas.  I would like to see at least one of the major models show one. 

 

We seemed to have gotten to the point where we believe they'll be a suppressed gulf storm but where it goes will be the question.  If it's that cold as advertised and if it's one of those storms that wants to stay right on the arctic boundary, perhaps suppression will be an issue.  Kinda worried about that.  In the carolinas, due to our climo, it certainly can be TOO cold to snow. 

 

I don't think the NW trend comes in to play here because we're talking about a storm along the arctic boundary...which probably will be to our south. 

[MichaelJ]

Sorry guys, I just don't see anything for the vast majority of the SE (except maybe the mtns and Coastal areas) for the next 10 days which is about the time the SE ridge will pop back in with the trough retrograding to the west of us. While the ridge has been progged to come back here several times and hasn't, I think the likelihood is it will soon and it is only a matter of time. This pattern will give the upper MA and NE plenty of snows and our heavier precipitation in the form of rain will return to the SE IMO. Don't like the way the trends have progressed so far this winter and I see no reason for it to suddenly change. Go back and look at the winter of 93-94 because this one is following it very closely and check out the very cold January followed by the milder Feb and March with little to no snow here.

[DaculaWeather]

Sorry guys, I just don't see anything for the vast majority of the SE (except maybe the mtns and Coastal areas) for the next 10 days which is about the time the SE ridge will pop back in with the trough retrograding to the west of us. While the ridge has been progged to come back here several times and hasn't, I think the likelihood is it will soon and it is only a matter of time. This pattern will give the upper MA and NE plenty of snows and our heavier precipitation in the form of rain will return to the SE IMO. Don't like the way the trends have progressed so far this winter and I see no reason for it to suddenly change. Go back and look at the winter of 93-94 because this one is following it very closely and check out the very cold January followed by the milder Feb and March with little to no snow here.

Then we agree to disagree

[Cold Rain]

When models show a snowstorm over our houses 5, 6, 7 days out, even 10 days out, and it turns out not to be correct, which I would say happens 80+% of the time, how many people believe that those depictions are correct?  Hopefully, not most of us.  The storm, if it's there, usually turns out differently.

 

So why, when all of the models show a storm that's suppressed, but well within the "margin or error" for course correction, at those leads is there all of a sudden no chance for a change in the progs?  It's suppressed so it's guaranteed to be cold and dry.

 

No.

 

Most of the guidance forms a system off the SE coast.  A few NWS offices, filled with people who get paid to do this stuff, are already discussing.  So for this situation:

 

That the system has broad support of actually forming is a postive.

 

That some operational models give some wintry weather to coastal areas is a postive.

 

That the system is shown to be too far south and east at >D+5 is a postive.

 

That the models frequently tend to press the cold air in the medium/long range is a positive.

 

That a snowstorm isn't shown in my backyard at >D+5 is a positive.

 

It's not a perfect pattern, and there are never any guarantees, but the players are on the field and in the general vicinity of where we want.  Maybe the models are exactly right with the placement of the actic boundary this time.  I don't know, but I'll take my chances that they're not exactly right.  This is the best look we've had all winter for a widespread winter storm.  Watch the trends.  As I said yesterday, it wouldn't take a whole lot of a change to change things a whole lot. Maybe it all goes away.  But I suspect we'll start to see some better looks from the operationals soon.  If not, we'll have more opportunities.  Either way, we're going to score.

[Shawn]

Well on the bright side; 06z GFS does have moisture getting to some us now. Just much warmer.    Imma take a look at the EPS members from last night's 00z.

 

EPS still is not bad.. in fact.. KCHS even gets walloped a bit harder (closer to 10-12") I believe.. on a member.

[tnweathernut]

It's not a perfect pattern, and there are never any guarantees, but the players are on the field and in the general vicinity of where we want.  Maybe the models are exactly right with the placement of the actic boundary this time.  I don't know, but I'll take my chances that they're not exactly right.  This is the best look we've had all winter for a widespread winter storm.  Watch the trends.  As I said yesterday, it wouldn't take a whole lot of a change to change things a whole lot. Maybe it all goes away.  But I suspect we'll start to see some better looks from the operationals soon.  If not, we'll have more opportunities.  Either way, we're going to score.

Totally agree.

 

If you want an example of how unpredictable things are, look no further than the last midatlantic storm.  Up until 3-4 days before the storm even the great Wes Junker (one of the best in the business) was laying down the argument that analogs said it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. The argument was that heavy events didn't come out of what the 500 level was showing and the analogs certainly backed up his thinking.......... most of them were 1-2 inch events.

 

Look at the snow map from the event and you will see a LOT more than 1-2.  Same thing could happen here with very little notice (3-4 days) JMO

[Shawn]

Took a look at the rest of cities around.  Still look the same or even better for many. I'll get these to Larry here in a bit and I'm sure he will give a great update of the 00z EPS stuff.

[DixieBlizzard]

Sorry guys, I just don't see anything for the vast majority of the SE (except maybe the mtns and Coastal areas) for the next 10 days which is about the time the SE ridge will pop back in with the trough retrograding to the west of us. While the ridge has been progged to come back here several times and hasn't, I think the likelihood is it will soon and it is only a matter of time. This pattern will give the upper MA and NE plenty of snows and our heavier precipitation in the form of rain will return to the SE IMO. Don't like the way the trends have progressed so far this winter and I see no reason for it to suddenly change. Go back and look at the winter of 93-94 because this one is following it very closely and check out the very cold January followed by the milder Feb and March with little to no snow here.

 

Michael, If you take the guidance at face value as it stands today, you are probably correct but you and I know this solution is changing in about an hour or so. However, from a pattern recognition standpoint, your pessimism seems out of place because this pattern indeed may not deliver but this certainly represents the best shot we have had that something "may" develop in the coming week.

[RevDodd]

Folks tend to give these long-range (heck even short-range) models anthropomorphic tendencies, especially when it comes to snow. We want it, so when models give it and take it away, they lash out like jilted lovers. The poor model is only doing what it is designed to do ... make sense out of numbers that don't yet exist, in essence paint a picture of something it has yet to see.

 

The fact that it paints some of us in ... or out of ... these dreams isn't as important as there's a dream being painted at this point.

[Shawn]

Michael, If you take the guidance at face value as it stands today, you are probably correct but you and I know this solution is changing in about an hour or so. However, from a pattern recognition standpoint, your pessimism seems out of place because this pattern indeed may not deliver but this certainly represents the best shot we have had that something "may" develop in the coming week.

 

There have been 5 runs in a row since I've began watching.. (probably more).. of the Euro's ensembles producing a significant snowfall for many in the Southeast.  In fact, they may even look a lot better for places like Wilmington, Charlotte, Myrtle Beach, Charleston, KCAE, ATL, Ashville, GSP, Savannah.

 

That in itself is a great sign to me.  There are 51 members total.. many of these have at least 20 members if not 30-35 showing a great snow accumulation for many!  Just because the "OP" maps don't show it doesn't mean jack compared to so many members.   Last GFS plume for my area I looked at was the same.  a couple members had KCAE with appreciable snow. 

[tnweathernut]

I have followed modeling for many years now and I can tell you that what is being shown currently SHOULD grab the attention of those in or around coastal NC/SC.  The tendencies of the modeling (GFS) is to be much too progressive with the flow.  It would not take much of an adjustment with either the Euro and/or GFS to give a pretty good snow (with no temperature issues) to the eastern/far eastern Carolinas.