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1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

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9z SREF mean has trended much wetter/ further west with the precip. It now has significant snows all the way to birmingham, AL and Rome, GA.

 

Maybe this is a sign of things to come for 12z models?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

 

Was just about to post about that. Very good sign.  Does 12z NAM follow suit? 

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Here are the picture and discussion from WxSouth's Facebook page concerning the energy that the NAM has seen that the globals have missed:

 

mst1vyH.jpg

 

This may not be sampled properly in the data. I don't think any model had much of it in the 12z runs just looking at the initialized 5H panels. Notice the systems west of Baja, California. This is what the NAM is taking east and trying to pick it up with the wave diving into the Rockies Tuesday. Models notoriously mishandle those systems way out west until we get closer in.

 

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This alert was generated by the National Weather Service

EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)

from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.

NOUS42 KWNO 251337

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1336Z SAT JAN 25 2014

THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME...THERE WERE 14 ALASKAN...30

CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN AND 9 CANADIAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL

FOR INGEST.

Dacula this I like! Thanks for always being on the ball! Hopefully this will be able to give the nam some validity
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06z NAM had sleet for the midlands of SC per 84hr.  I'm assuming this is before this turn over to snow from what's coming?

 

SREF is also showing many members of ice/sleet for this area at hr 87; also assuming thats just the beginning.

 

GFS generally misses us; but it just may be getting there.

 

 

00z Euro EPS still had 30 members of snow for CAE.  2 inch mean.

 

my meltdown mode is over.  thankfully.

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KILM, is playing Dr. NO again this morning, going/based on the overnight, GFS Runs, opting with the driest solution, as well as the EURO, keeping any pcp either right on, or just off-shore the Coast... 

....

>snip< Synopsis...
Arctic high pressure will move off the coast early this
morning...and along with it the last night of the most recent nasty
Arctic chill. A brief warmup will develop Sunday into Monday.
Another Arctic cold front will arrive late Monday...stalling
offshore Tuesday night. Low pressure may develop along the front
Wednesday bringing a chance for wintry precipitation for the
eastern Carolinas...but mainly off the coast.>snip<
*******************************************************

>snip<Shortwave rotates around deep broad middle
to upper trough over the east on Wednesday but looks to be too dry
to produce any pcp. Have kept small mention over coastal waters in
the way of snow showers but latest GFS model run keep a very dry air
mass in place and therefore likelihood of pcp remains slim. European model (ecmwf)
shows slightly greater chance for some pcp right along the coast on
Tuesday and column will support snow if this occurs but for now will
trend toward a drier forecast leaving all pcp off the coast Tuesday or
Wednesday.>snip<

 

Even though the Model(s) are now supporting Phasing, interacting w/the Southern stream..

currently:

 

Temperature
22 °F
Dew Point
13 °F

Calm wind(s)

 

While way, WAY South of the SE Crew Has this, Folks,,, Mobile,BAMA,,,, (Destin.Fl)... On Monday evening......

 

>snip<Monday night through Tuesday night is
an interesting period...weather wise...with a front moving south
across at least the land portion of the forecast area Monday. The global models
push the front farther south Monday. Another lobe of energy swings
south across the plains Monday into Tuesday...slowing the push of the
cold air behind the front. Isentropic upglide brings rain and farther
north of the front...a mixed bag of winter precipitation to the area. At
this point...feel the initial precipitation will move south of the coast
Monday night...then as the second vorticity lobe swings south across the
plains...upglide precipitation spreads north over mainly coastal counties
of the forecast area. Looking at model soundings...with the front well south of
the coast...the depth of the airmass in the boundary layer is pretty
much below freezing...so snow is indicated Tuesday
morning....becoming rain during the day. As the vorticity lobe swings
south Tuesday into Tuesday night...the precipitation moves south. The
biggest questions lies in how far south the surface front gets pushed
Monday/Monday night. The further north the front lies...the farther
north the wintry precipitation lies...with more of a mixed bag across land
portions of the forecast area (more in line with the nam). Have leaned towards
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS in pushing the front farther south and going with
snow...then rain Tuesday. Too soon to even speculate on
amounts...though. Will definitely need to keep an eye on this. For
temperatures...a hard freeze warning may be needed Monday and Tuesday
nights...especially over the northern two thirds of the forecast area.
>snip<

 

Summing this up, along with "other" Local AFD(s), I'm thinking NO-ONE is sure WHAT is going to happen, (or Not), are either going conservative w/major suppression, Climo, or just plain Model hugging.. 

 

 

 

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NWS Jacksonville

MODELS SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT

AND PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MODEL

MOISTURE STILL DIFFERS WITH ECMWF SHOWING MOISTURE LINGERING INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS DRYING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. MODEL

SOUNDINGS SHOW AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT

RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY

MORNING IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT.

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Cheap plug guy, sorry, but I have a quick and easy way to get all the AFD's for every Southern Region office, as well as forecast, meteograms, HWO's, right here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_weather.php

 

Have links there for the Central, Western, and Alaskan Regions. Working on the Eastern Region, they don't use the "media style" graphics like the other office do.

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Cheap plug guy, sorry, but I have a quick and easy way to get all the AFD's for every Southern Region office, as well as forecast, meteograms, HWO's, right here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_weather.php

 

Have links there for the Central, Western, and Alaskan Regions. Working on the Eastern Region, they don't use the "media style" graphics like the other office do.

Someone needs to tell FFC and El Paso that just because those fonts are there, it doesn't mean you have to use them.

 

Also, I'm thinking that Key West in the winter is maybe the cushiest forecasting job in NWS :)

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One difference already on the 12z NAM is that it has two consolidated pieces of energy off the southern coast of California @36. 6z had one elongated wave. I have no clue what if any implications that will have. The 6z rotated it down into the Bajah and then ejected it. What might happen is if these rotate down one could possibly be used as kicker...or they could phase and just sit there and spin.

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One difference already on the 12z NAM is that it has two consolidated pieces of energy off the southern coast of California @36. 6z had one elongated wave. I have no clue what if any implications that will have. The 6z rotated it down into the Bajah and then ejected it. What might happen is if these rotate down one could possibly be used as kicker...or they could phase and just sit there and spin.

 

From my maps (still early on my side) I could see the energy being skipped over.. but time will tell.

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Moisture breaking out in LA @54. Energy is still in the baja and is starting to phase. Not as consolidated as the 6z was. Can it phase get juicer and move east? That's the question. 

 

Phasing in the gulf would move the track closer to the coast later correct? Its good to see the storm potential but man its tough being so close to the coast knowing any major NW trend kills you.

 

The GFS was much slower in ejecting the energy over the baja so maybe it will start to shift back to an earlier ejection of that energy in its 12z run today.

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Shawn and Burger that area near the Dakotas on the 48 hr image more consolidated and further south in this run can that help down the road here?

 

Depends on when they can link up. I'm ore concerned with our southern piece of energy. That is the key to all of this. Can it stay together and head east? 

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