Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I believe you've been looking at what I've been looking at assuming you are referring to the wxbell charts. I will say that I've noticed a few discrepancies between what the blue bars show for deterministic snow and what the wxbell snow maps show for a few cities. For those cities blue bars show several inches more. Most other cities I've checked seemed to mostly match. Maybe either more documentation is needed for their charts and maps or maybe I'm just not looking at things right. Or the charts are full of **** heh. It's a neat way to view the data though. Not to keep off topic for this thread; but I do need to note that I'm honestly not sure. The grads script that they generate those bar type maps for precip etc is freely available on the internet to do with any model data you want. If I remember correctly, the script itself was fine. I'm wondering wtf is up with the data or the way it is calculated / modified in the script for the Euro. I feel like if I had the core grib2 files of the ECMWF and tried to generate the same maps.. they would come out much much different. The maps Larry posted of the ensemble mean looks perfect from his vendor though. AN odd thing is there is of course no precip really shown on the OP Euro for so many members saying "some form of precip." And on top of that is Larry noted the maps he is looking at are even more robust with snow. Looking at the individual members for various location yields smaller amounts on multiple members that were 8-10 inches + last night. Like here in KCAE; some are showing 6-8 at the high point. Last night a couple (same ones) were 9-12 or so. I think we using wxBell should temporarily get data from other posters with different data sources and try to line up what they are seeing with ours. It'll be a lot nicer if the model center could ever get the Euro precip maps. I feel like it'd cost quite a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 i agree that it looks like the se is being primed for some decent winter wx, the cold air is here and looks to stay around more or less. my only real hold back from more optimism is this has been the proverbial 7-10 days away. things look great for a while then fall apart and dont verify even close. if we can get something with staying power (ie. doesnt flip flop around but stays on the same general day or so) i might feel better. i know the "surprise" events are that common any more but with multiple fronts set to move through and plenty of cold air around it would be nice to see a low or even weak wave develop around the gulf and head up. hasnt happened in ages, but it used to be not uncommon. lead time for those would be something showing up with in a few days of the event. the fact that a low has now popped up around the gulf here and there is at least "interesting" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 From Allan a bit ago. Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/426131590100443136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan definitely has the personal tools/maps etc to look at that 18z GFS closer. While it may just be a little ice for KCAE from the maps I used; having him confirm a Wintry event is great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 One thing that has my interest is the ensembles are sniffing something out and not just the op runs.. so show the members have higher cinfidence in this system than prior ones.. as progressive as the flow is it would take just a little slow down to give a system time to get its act together with this cold and its game one... also a couple days ago someone here posted the euro and had a low by the four corners that was being squashed and now its showing back up and moving east... let the good times roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 One thing that has my interest is the ensembles are sniffing something out and not just the op runs.. so show the members have higher cinfidence in this system than prior ones.. as progressive as the flow is it would take just a little slow down to give a system time to get its act together with this cold and its game one... also a couple days ago someone here posted the euro and had a low by the four corners that was being squashed and now its showing back up and moving east... let the good times roll You know if the Euro ensembles weren't showing this; there wouldn't be a thread. I just took a look at the 18z GFS ensembles for KCAE and they look okay. Not great; but okay.. and this is BEFORE the system was shown by the OP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm on board with the interest in this period. Arctic front crosses the southeast on the 27th, then a surface low tries to spin up on the arctic boundary along the gulf / southeast coast as upper energy dives down east of the Rockies. It's a decent longwave pattern evolution (think DC-Philly storm evolution a few days ago, but farther south). Just need to see a sharpened vort max dig down into the trough. Models won't be able to hone in on that shortwave energy from way out. A few of the 18z GFS Ensemble members get precip going along and just inland of the SE coast...a couple more have precip well inland...and if it's suppressed, cold, and dry on the 29th, may see another chance shortly thereafter as the flow relaxes, but with cold air close by. I'm in the Detroit area on business this week. Low around 0 this morning. 10 degrees now with light snow today. Tiny flakes. Impressively cold January, with more deep cold coming through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm in the Detroit area on business this week. Low around 0 this morning. 10 degrees now with light snow today. Tiny flakes. Impressively cold January, with more deep cold coming through the end of the month. Find yourself a national Coney Island. Thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm on board with the interest in this period. Arctic front crosses the southeast on the 27th, then a surface low tries to spin up on the arctic boundary along the gulf / southeast coast as upper energy dives down east of the Rockies. It's a decent longwave pattern evolution (think DC-Philly storm evolution a few days ago, but farther south). Just need to see a sharpened vort max dig down into the trough. Models won't be able to hone in on that shortwave energy from way out. A few of the 18z GFS Ensemble members get precip going along and just inland of the SE coast...a couple more have precip well inland...and if it's suppressed, cold, and dry on the 29th, may see another chance shortly thereafter as the flow relaxes, but with cold air close by. I'm in the Detroit area on business this week. Low around 0 this morning. 10 degrees now with light snow today. Tiny flakes. Impressively cold January, with more deep cold coming through the end of the month. I know exactly what you mean. Glad to see that Griteater like this period too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good run of the GFS. Snow hit for coastal NC & SC on the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My god. Is the 174 hr GFS about to do what I think? Or am I too excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My god. Is the 174 hr GFS about to do what I think? Or am I too excited? Hold on but I think it's gonna pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wow, that's a nice OBX special on 1/29. BL temperatures are fine and upper level temperatures are well cold enough to produce some fluffy snow with 850 mb temperatures close to -10C. EDIT: Another coastal Carolina special on 2/1 after truncation. BL temperatures look a little worrisome for the OBX, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good run of the GFS. Snow hit for coastal NC & SC on the 29thSo GFS coming around to Euro ? Good to see at this point! Coastal carolina snow is a good look for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My god. Is the 174 hr GFS about to do what I think? Or am I too excited? Looks good at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wow, that's a nice OBX special on 1/29. BL temperatures are fine and upper level temperatures are well cold enough to produce some fluffy snow with 850 mb temperatures close to -10C. " By hour 159, massive axis of precip off the SC coast. Heading up the coast.. Coastal areas of NC are DEFINITELY snow. No doubts (even without soundings). Might be a little bit of a start as mixed/sleet/etc. But the NE corner is set. Outter banks too!" Was the exact quote I put on my website about that earlier deal. Soundings NOT even needed from the looks of the maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Low popping. Possible snow into Dallas, TX at 183 Guys, even if we miss this. The gulf coast of texas on this run possibly sees some sort of snow. Wow. Lots of ZR elsewhere all over Southern tx/gulf of tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 1) Based on eyeballing, here's the impressive snowfall breakdown for KATL in # of inches per yesterday's 12Z Euro 51 ensemble members for the ten day period, which average 1.37" and matches the ensemble mean (24 members with snow, 11 with 1"+, 6 with amounts near or above the multi-decadal maximum):11, 11, 9, 8, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 2) Based on eyeballing, here's the even more impressive snowfall breakdown for KATL in # of inches per today's 0Z Euro 51 ensemble members for the ten day period, which average 1.75" and matches the ensemble mean (still 24 members with snow and 6 with amounts near or above the multi-decadal maximum, but 18 with 1"+..there's a lot more in the 2-5" range): 10, 9, 9, 7, 7, 7, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1.25, 0.75, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Of course, the second set of #'s is based on a period that ends 12 hours later, but this doesn't make a big difference. If I compare the same two periods for both (ending 12Z on 1/31), the 2nd average would still be 1.61" vs. the 1.37" (the 1st average). So, it is legitimate to say it that it is significantly snowier on today's 0Z vs. yesterday's 12Z (1.61" vs. 1.37"). I haven't yet seen today's 12Z Euro ensemble members, but it should at least about as impressive as today's 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And bam, destroyed. Gets Lousiana with a tad bit of snow/zr before it says "bye!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, on a lighter note on to the Euro! The OP still may not show much; but I'm betting most the ensemble members hold on to the previous 4 runs. Btw Larry, I had noted in a post above that at least for some areas like KCAE.. there was less "snow accumulation" per member.. but more on the mean map you posted. Weird stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good run of the GFS at 500mb. 2 storm chances with cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good run of the GFS at 500mb. 2 storm chances with cold air It just got crushed and I really feel like being this far away; The GFS is starting to see something possibly major.. just as some of the Euro ensemble members have seen. I'm still VERY optimistic for the SE areas! If not mby, someone else in NE GA/ NC/ TN / AL.. someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 " By hour 159, massive axis of precip off the SC coast. Heading up the coast.. Coastal areas of NC are DEFINITELY snow. No doubts (even without soundings). Might be a little bit of a start as mixed/sleet/etc. But the NE corner is set. Outter banks too!" Was the exact quote I put on my website about that earlier deal. Soundings NOT even needed from the looks of the maps! Showing like 2" of snow for Greenville if I'm looking close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Showing like 2" of snow for Greenville if I'm looking close enough. Haven't looked at totals (hopefully someone else can?) But you guys have 850's below 0 and 2m below the whole precip period almost. it might start as a bit of sleet if you're unlucky? (dont tell tony i said that!) J/k; per the last run you will be okay. BUT NO HOPES UP! Its still far out for that event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Here's hoping for lots of 200mi W and/or N shifts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm good to take all the sleet No worries. Now we start the pull north chant, but only up Fla some If it's down there two days out, might be bad...but now, just fine. And more rain in south Ga. late weekend/early week. I think that's still alive for something..maybe a stray cloud or two with some pellets. We'll see. Was a bb down in mid Fla not many runs back. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Per 0Z Thu 1/23 GFS: - Two systems during the critical period as mentioned already - System #1: A decent slug of Gulf moisture moves NE toward a developing sfc low ~300 miles off of the SE coast late on 1/28 to 1/29. The heaviest qpf is ~0.75 to 1.5" but the heaviest remains 50-75 miles offshore GA/SC. It comes closer to the NC coast. SAV/CHS/MYR receive .01"/.03"/.09", that Tuesday night, all of which at CHS/MYR/SAV would seemingly be light snow based on 850' s of 0 to -5 C, cold NNE to N winds not allowing warming from the ocean, and sfc temp.'s mainly between 31 and 23 F. Much heavier snow hits ILM with 0.26" of qpf and -5 C 850's there...so could be 3" there and as much as 4" further up the coast. - System #2: A Miller A forms on 1/30 but then falls apart 1/31 (after producing 1-5" of snow for the upper coast of TX and SW LA) as it appears that the energy possibly is somehow transferred to another low that develops well off of the SE coast on 1/31. This gives SAV 0.02" of qpf as something and 0.07"/0.18'/0.22" of qpf as snow at MYR/ILM/HAT on 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 144 12z Euro: 1 light (VERY LIGHT) band of precip through sc/nc. nothing to note.. seriously. its cold for snow. BUT nothing at all bascially. We are talking a flurry here or there. It does move to the coastal areas of NC a bit later.. but still pretty much dead precip. heavier precip stays off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 186, northern MS, west TN, Northern AL could be seeing some Winter weather. No intricate maps yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Precip w/ 2M cold trying to come into GA/NW SC etc. dying out as it heads east. Secondary heavier band coming up through LA/MS trying to get into AL. Secondary band dies out.. but not before ATL sees something precip/wintry. More heavier precip.. but cold going away and even TN sees a possible temp problem at some parts. System/precip heading north; idk... anyway.. Looks okay.. even some backend snow for many of the previous areas. Not confident in this OP run as a whole; but not bad for many of you! Ensembles will be great once again I bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.