SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Fluid dynamics, absent of UL forcing to steer a slp inland or along the coast, slp's tend to travel the path of least resistance which is the natural baroclinic zone, aka, the Gulf Stream. I agree with you that the system will move towards a area of diabatic heating. A cyclone also moves towards areas of PVA and WAA also. The WAA is usually in the NE quadrant of a cyclone in the N-Hemi. For me, I put more weight on WAA and PVA. I do see your side though, hope your right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0z GFS is a worst case for this event IMO. The southern vort just sits and spins over the baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's about it folks. Not a fan of what the GFS is doing and other guidance that had good storms here were showing the energy back there getting cut off/wanting to before kicking east. If the GFS is correct; we are all screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS seems to be way off from the other models, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We all have to pray the GFS is on crack today. It's great how every crappy piece of energy gets caught up in the flow but the one we need just chills out catching some rays off the coast of Mexico. What I wouldn't give for a kicker. On the plus side the energy in question is out in the Pacific with poor sampling. I'll bet if the Euro shows something tonight that flights will be scheduled for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Call me crazy but I do not believe the GFS depiction for a minute just parking that s/w in baja the way it does. I'm not saying this just because I want or hope for something but if I remember correctly and please someone correct me if I'm wrong the GFS has struggled in the past with these southwest shortwaves. I think wx south had a post just recently here within the last hour about this. Does anyone have more info pertaining to GFS and shortwave struggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We all have to pray the GFS is on crack today. It's great how every crappy piece of energy gets caught up in the flow but the one we need just chills out catching some rays off the coast of Mexico. What I wouldn't give for a kicker. On the plus side the energy in question is out in the Pacific with poor sampling. I'll bet if the Euro shows something tonight that flights will be scheduled for tomorrow. Like the new avatar man. On the weather side.. I'd think if the GGEM/UKMET look the same while the GFS & Euro ops don't... there would still be a heightened awareness for a possible one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Call me crazy but I do not believe the GFS depiction for a minute just parking that s/w in baja the way it does. I'm not saying this just because I want or hope for something but if I remember correctly and please someone correct me if I'm wrong the GFS has struggled in the past with these southwest shortwaves. I think wx south had a post just recently here within the last hour about this. Does anyone have more info pertaining to GFS and shortwave struggles? I believe holding energy back in that area is a euro bias or at least was at some point in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We all have to pray the GFS is on crack today. It's great how every crappy piece of energy gets caught up in the flow but the one we need just chills out catching some rays off the coast of Mexico. What I wouldn't give for a kicker. On the plus side the energy in question is out in the Pacific with poor sampling. I'll bet if the Euro shows something tonight that flights will be scheduled for tomorrow.I def concur with that statement. Best post today. Knowing NWS they'll have a special winter storm flight reconnaissance mission started. I hope that comes to fruition because that was a rough run 5h setup anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Call me crazy but I do not believe the GFS depiction for a minute just parking that s/w in baja the way it does. I'm not saying this just because I want or hope for something but if I remember correctly and please someone correct me if I'm wrong the GFS has struggled in the past with these southwest shortwaves. I think wx south had a post just recently here within the last hour about this. Does anyone have more info pertaining to GFS and shortwave struggles? Yes, WxSouth posted about that on Facebook tonight with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For me the GFS solution is a bit off. I don't understand why it has such a strong wave so far south. Most models have a southern wave but nothing that far south and cutoff. The timing is important also, gfs seems to waste time with the southern stream and its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You can't fully dis the GFS in this instance because its more than likely right. That energy has to kick out. * I do agree with cmichweather* That energy is more than likely to strong and should get kicked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Time to see if the 0z euro backs off and lines up closer to the gfs or stays with its earlier solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For me the GFS solution is a bit off. I don't understand why it has such a strong wave so far south. Most models have a southern wave but nothing that far south and cutoff. The timing is important also, gfs seems to waste time with the southern stream and its strength. You can't fully dis the GFS in this instance because its more than likely right. That energy has to kick out. * I do agree with cmichweather* That energy is more than likely to strong and should get kicked out. My question is, why does the initialized energy get kicked out but the second wave hits a brick wall? I realize the second acts as a kicker for the first but should it take the same path? Very frustrating how it looks like it bounces off the MexiCali coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You can't fully dis the GFS in this instance because its more than likely right. That energy has to kick out. * I do agree with cmichweather* That energy is more than likely to strong and should get kicked out. Although not as bad as years past, the GFS still has a tendency of being too northern stream dominant, and doesn't typically handle southern stream s/w's too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just to throw this in there, the 15z run of the SREF Mean looks awfully close to the NAM at hour 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Euro, Euro Ensemble Mean, GFS, and UKMet all have the southern wave closed near or off Baja, and are northern stream dominant...nothing like the NAM or CMC. GFS is digging the northern piece less to the southwest than any other model...and is not even close to allowing a storm to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Needless to say the 0z GFS doesn't give a flake to any of us, no coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think it keeps it there because it is too strong with it, Burger...Mike, ya it does have a progressive northern stream. I wouldn't be surprised if something comes back NW a little with the end solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 have to admit that is exciting looking. Only if we can get some support for it. wow - now thats what i am talking about lol. we didnt have the internet in the the late 70s and 80s so i can only speak from memory of the newspaper maps and tv and imagination but that looks like the gulf lows that would move into cold air giving the se some big time winter fun lol. if only that map were showing tomorrow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think it keeps it there because it is too strong with it, Burger...Mike, ya it does have a progressive northern stream. I wouldn't be surprised if something comes back NW a little with the end solution. To add insult to injury as soon as the pattern relaxes it gets rocketed forward for a nice soaking rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC precip field on B/w maps dramatically different at 96 hours vs. 108 on 12z run -- most precip confined back to Texas/La. gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think it keeps it there because it is too strong with it, Burger...Mike, ya it does have a progressive northern stream. I wouldn't be surprised if something comes back NW a little with the end solution. you know I can't help but think of the Feb 2010 GFS fiasco when it did crazy stuff sending the low into Cuba due to erroneously treating it like an MCS. Basically, the time frame basically in the same general area again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hmmmm -- different at 108 vs. 120 on 12z run -- but not bad --- precip really shunted south -- lower half of S.C. big winner -- not so good for all but far SE N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC precip field on B/w maps dramatically different at 96 hours vs. 108 on 12z run -- most precip confined back to Texas/La. gulf coast. Still looks to hold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 VERY true Mike....I sooo remember that. I have a feeling the GFS will be wrong. Burger, I really wish the GFS would just run 2 times a day and worry about, not 4 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 you know I can't help but think of the Feb 2010 GFS fiasco when it did crazy stuff sending the low into Cuba due to erroneously treating it like an MCS. Basically, the time frame basically in the same general area again. yep and then came back to a better solution within 2-3 days of the event. i remember it distinctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting Greg Fishel on the 11 o'clock news just said that the latest American model run the GFS shows no way for snow mid week but he also said on a side note that he trusts the American model about as far as you can throw it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hmmmm -- maybe just a slowdown though because precip still going strong at 120 hours (all the way until 0z Thursday) with eastern 40 percent of N.C. cashing in. Man, total precip for eastern half of S.C. must be prodigious on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GGEM is not terribly different from the previous run. It's still a major snow storm for eastern 1/2- 2/3 of NC and eastern third of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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