El Kabong Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We've all seen models go through some fairly significant run-to-run changes in the past concerning the placement of the "players on the field." Someone in the bullseye today may be completely shut out when the storm actually arrives. And those who are shutout today may find themselves with several inches of white, powdery heaven next Wednesday. We'll hopefully know more as the players begin to "enter the stadium" on Sunday. Other than the famous Superstorm of 1993, I would think that it's rare for any model to nail the details of a forecast 4-5 days out. Speaking of the Superstorm, part of its place in weather history isn't just the far-reaching effects that it had from Maine to Alabama (let's not forget Cuba as well!), it's the fact that the details of the storm were modeled so well several days in advance...and that was 21 years ago! I would like to believe that we've made some strides in our computer modeling since then, but that type of storm and the forecast that preceded it may not be duplicated in our lifetime. The good news is that there appears to be a consensus among the models that there WILL be a storm. As always, the devil is in the details. Here's hoping the JMA and Canadian pull a major upset! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thought this was an interesting tidbit from Andy Wood on facebook. That being said I do believe he is back in Nashville TN. So he is probably speaking more for TN. WPC extended disco from this morning, did not see it posted, sorry if I missed. ...GUIDANCE EVALUATION...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH A NERN US LOW THAT BRINGS A TRAILINGCOLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BYCOLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THEFOLLOWING COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER IN THE MON-WED PERIOD DIFFERENCESEMERGE WITH THE EXACT HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATINGTHROUGH MID-CONTINENT INTO THE ERN STATES. ISSUES ALOFT LEAD TOMEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW DETAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTCOAST. RECENT ECMWF RUNS ARE ON THE SHARPER/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THESPREAD WITH THEIR SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A SURFACE LOW ON THE WRNSIDE OF THE SPREAD INTO WED/THU. THIS SOLTUION HAS INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM RECENT ECMWF MEANS...AND GIVEN RECENTHISTORY IN THIS PATTERN RECENT GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SCENARIOSMAY BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE. WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASEDPOTENTIAL FOR WINTERY PCPN OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATLANTICCOMPARED TO CONTINUITY AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW BRINGS A BITMORE MOISTURE AND PCPN ONSHORE COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTICECMWF. THIS SEEMS MORE CONSISTENT WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED MEANMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION. QPF maps for the period issued around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z Ensembles still more robust on precip further west than Op Euro. Mean is 3" for RDU with a handful of 9"+ members, similar to 00z ensembles if I remember correcting. Game very much on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12z Ensembles still more robust on precip further west than Op Euro. Mean is 3" for RDU with a handful of 9"+ members, similar to 00z ensembles if I remember correcting. Game very much on. Thanks for posting some of the ensemble details. How much farther west does the precip extend as you go south and west toward South Carolina and Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What time does the 18Z suite of models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z throws out yet another different look at 5h. @87 northern energy is making it's way south. Very weakish piece is diving into TX. Mean while the energy in the SW is just sitting their spinning just off the coast of western Mexico. Compared to 12z which had that Mexico energy trekking almost into Texas. It's gonna be a wild ride over the weekend folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php GO ahead and BM this site What time does the 18Z suite of models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z throws out yet another different look at 5h. @87 northern energy is making it's way south. Very weakish piece is diving into TX. Mean while the energy in the SW is just sitting their spinning just off the coast of western Mexico. Compared to 12z which had that Mexico energy trekking almost into Texas. It's gonna be a wild ride over the weekend folks. Holds the southern energy back... misses the first polar s/w. Watch the second one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Holds the southern energy back... misses the first polar s/w. Watch the second one... Yep we badly needed that to kick east. If it had there might have been some fireworks down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like it's going to be squash city on the 18z, but let's see...big cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php GO ahead and BM this site Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yep we badly needed that to kick east. If it had there might have been some fireworks down stream. Wouldn't be the first time that southern energy tracks west or sits in the SW instead of sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 wow gfs 18z @ hr 102 is very different from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z just shows the many options still on the table. From hero to zero anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 wow gfs 18z @ hr 102 is very different from 12z. A post like this means nothing unless you explain. In what way different and what does it suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 looks like goofy lost it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A post like this means nothing unless you explain. In what way different and what does it suggest? Sorry, energy positioned much farther SW over Mexico where 12z had it off the coast of LA, suggests suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This seems to be the timeframe the gfs always looses storms. 5 to 6 days out. Or at least it seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18Z GFS is a no. I'll put my money on the EURO to return serve with the 0Z and hopefully 0z GFS bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 18z DGEX is a bomb. View at your own risk This isn't the only frame with preicp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro could lose the storm too at 0z. It's in the time frame to lose and return it later as we'll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Can someone post a WxBell snow map of the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I fully expect to see a DGEX clown map at some point this evening, James, Super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sorry, energy positioned much farther SW over Mexico where 12z had it off the coast of LA, suggests suppression. by being more southwest would cause the low pressure to turn more northwest the old north and west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 18z DGEX is a bomb. View at your own risk This isn't the only frame with preicp. Was just about to post that, #Banter, not surprising though considering the 12z GFS and 18z NAM. Clown map should be more colorful than the 6z run I posted a couple days ago. Note how it takes the 700mb dry punch from Augusta up towards SE VA, something a few 12z GFS mems were hinting at. This leads to some SN for the 77 corridor in NC, as well as DC. Full run can be seen here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Clown will not be out for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 by being more southwest would cause the low pressure to turn more northwest the old north and west trend Have you looked at the model? That is not happening! It squashes it to nothing no storm nada. Can't got NW if there isn't a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think sunday we'll know more about where this storm is going, I would like a snowstorm here but if the coast folks and inland gets snow that would be great. here's cheering for all the folks in eastern nc and sc and northern fla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Can someone post a WxBell snow map of the 12Z Euro? That is a copyrighted image, as are all WxBell maps, FYI. If it gets out into the public domain via FB or Tweeter, fine, link it, but the EC graphics from WxBell are off limits, no need for a JB vs American type deal. May I suggest wunderground, check out the precip, temps, and do the math. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Have you looked at the model? That is not happening! It squashes it to nothing no storm nada. Can't got NW if there isn't a storm it will come back, models always lose it 5 or 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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