BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am guessing that the Carolinas now have a better than even chance of a good storm, here in GA, a lot iffier. Hate relying on the Canadian but I do like the fact the UKMET looks to be on board, verification shows it is a better model. Interesting winter for sure...... Do you have access to UKIE QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 tn - what do you mean by phasing in this context?...seeing that a lot on here. There's no southern stream system of any significance. Do you mean the northern stream separating more and trying to close off? Ah, but there is. It is weak but it what we want the northern s/w to capture, phase, in with and pull its sfc low up. Otherwise, you get the strung out, overunning event along the immediate coast line at best. This is what we want to happen: (p007 member) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm gonna be that guy to go out on a limb and say we see a lot more people away from the coast get into a wintry situation. The theme of the recent past has been for some pretty strong northern energy clippers to drop down. Obv it comes down to the trough orientation but I could easily see the northern energy getting this thing to happen. My gut tells me we see a solution somewhere where the slp goes over hatteras or somewhere just inside there.Exactly! Like a few weeks back and we were suppose to stay dry with all moisture of the coast, it trended way west and 2 days out finally had rain showing and lots of people got 2-3 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 KCAE: FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MID WEEK. YESTERDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT STRONGER AND GIVING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. 24/00Z RUNS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND 12Z RUNS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION JUST REACHING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A MORE OPEN TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS SHOWING A BIT MORE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE EVENT PERIOD ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES OF THE MODELS AND THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND ITS EXACT LOCATION OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL BE HESITANT TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AT THIS TIME. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Finally decided to generate the snow maps. Sigh. Go west, young man. Go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To me this is just like the Monday storm; a clipper forms a low off the coast, but too late for anybody east of Raleigh. I bet it turns out the same way. In order for this to become a big deal inland, something dramatic like the trough going negative, closing off, quadruple phasing or something or other needs to happen. I haven't heard any model showing that, only various distances of how far it digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Exactly! Like a few weeks back and we were suppose to stay dry with all moisture of the coast, it trended way west and 2 days out finally had rain showing and lots of people got 2-3 inches of rain If anything this will trend east leaving everyone west of I-95 out. This could end up like 1989 though when the coast got a major hit and then the rest of winter was warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To me this is just like the Monday storm; a clipper forms a low off the coast, but too late for anybody east of Raleigh. I bet it turns out the same way. In order for this to become a big deal inland, something dramatic like the trough going negative, closing off, quadruple phasing or something or other needs to happen. I haven't heard any model showing that, only various distances of how far it digs. Idk you are getting some solutions showing that the ultimate path may hug the coast per Euro (especially ensembles) GFS UKMET CANADIEN. This is still 5 days away we've seen plenty and plenty of times again where models underestimate the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So after this storm will Wilmington or Greenville have more snow than mt Mitchell? Why don't you do yourself a favor, go outside and take a break. KCAE: They haven't changed their discussion from yesterday, but it is nice to see the mention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A NOTE to all the folks showing up on the board. Please realize this board is run by a person just like you and me that spends hours keeping this board running. Please DONATE to the cause for keeping the board RUNNING FREE OF CHARGE. Thanks for your time and DONATION... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 tn - what do you mean by phasing in this context?...seeing that a lot on here. There's no southern stream system of any significance. Do you mean the northern stream separating more and trying to close off? I think there is some confusion as to what was causing the big deal on the Euro. It seemed like there were two parcels of energy. One rolling through the south and another northern stream coming down and capturing it to really juice it. GFS hinted at this as well. It seems that in actuality it was just the southern energy getting really amped up and just heading east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Why don't you do yourself a favor, go outside and take a break. Yeah all these silly questions/comments that are either irrelevant or can be answered simply by reading the thread has gotten really old. Going to have to start handing out warnings or suspensions if it doesn't stop. For those of you with these types of questions or comments..take it to the banter thread and leave it out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A NOTE to all the folks showing up on the board. Please realize this board is run by a person just like you and me that spends hours keeping this board running. Please DONATE to the cause for keeping the board RUNNING FREE OF CHARGE. Thanks for your time and DONATION... 2nd that motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GSP: A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE DEVELOPMENT OFA SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR LATE TUES AND WED. THE LONG RANGE MODELSHAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WRT TO HOW FAR THE TRACK...AND CONSEQUENTLYTHE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM...REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE LATESTRUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEPER LYRMOISTURE JUST OUR SE AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST. OF COURSE IFTHE TRACK SHIFTS EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT TO THE NORTH...THERE IS AMPLECOLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. THISWILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. AFTER THE LOWMOVES NE OF THE REGION...BRIEF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRINGDRY CONDITIONS FOR THURS. THE MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER...WEAKER COLDFRONT AND MOVE IT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY EARLY FRI...HOWEVER THE GFSKEEPS THE FROPA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER. FOR THE TIME BEING IHAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FORTHE FIRST HALF OF FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THRU THEPERIOD WITH WARMING ON DAYS 6 AND 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wouldn't get to worried or too excited until Sunday and we see the evolution of the models and placement of the low (and High) as it comes onshore. I have a feeling this could very well actually go more East rather than the normal NW drift because of the strength and depth of the cold drying most of us out and forcing the low off shore with the location of the High being critical. The placement of that High will be important as to the eventual track of the Low IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Ah, but there is. It is weak but it what we want the northern s/w to capture, phase, in with and pull its sfc low up. Otherwise, you get the strung out, overunning event along the immediate coast line at best. This is what we want to happen: (p007 member) I'm with you, but what's mainly driving the bus to me regarding how much precip works inland is how far southwest the northern piece tracks, how strong it is, and how much the flow up and down the east coast backs to the SW. Location of jet axis upstream over the mid-atlantic is important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah all these silly questions/comments that are either irrelevant or can be answered simply by reading the thread has gotten really old. Going to have to start handing out warnings or suspensions if it doesn't stop. For those of you with these types of questions or comments..take it to the banter thread and leave it out of this one. Probably wise ... a lot of us are out of storm mode shape. It's been a while. But while we're waiting, I have a question about the GFS before it comes around again. Seems that I recall the GFS used to have a tendency to squash southern stream storms, which is one reason it was slow to click on the Dec. 2010 storm. have there been any adjustments made to the model since then, or is that a perceived bias to watch for still? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Trends are to bring this west. I anyone thinks the model runs over the last two days are set in stone will be severely disappointed. I have an interest in seein this drift west. That said the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro ENS mean looks very close to 0z run, maybe a hair east. Need ind members to be sure. 2nd look, definitely 20 or so miles east with mean precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro ENS mean looks very close to 0z run, maybe a hair east. Need ind members to be sure. 2nd look, definitely 20 or so miles east with mean precip field. Somewhat concerning you could say. Would much more like to see the ensembles west still. Plenty of time to correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 ECMWF ENS Mean precip/snow looks similar to 00z maybe a little drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If anything this will trend east leaving everyone west of I-95 out. This could end up like 1989 though when the coast got a major hit and then the rest of winter was warm and wet. What? Then it's already behind the 8 ball. Trends are to bring this west. I anyone thinks the model runs over the last two days are set in stone will be severely disappointed. I have an interest in seein this drift west. That said the trend is your friend. You would also think that any interaction or trough orientation changes would certainly hinder any further eastward tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To me this is just like the Monday storm; a clipper forms a low off the coast, but too late for anybody east of Raleigh. I bet it turns out the same way. In order for this to become a big deal inland, something dramatic like the trough going negative, closing off, quadruple phasing or something or other needs to happen. I haven't heard any model showing that, only various distances of how far it digs. This literally has almost nothing in common with that Monday storm...at least from what I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The canadian ensembles= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The canadian ensembles= Trended wetter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Could someone possibly retrieve GFS ensemble p008 or retrieve the individual members to post? I hear that ensemble is an absolute bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Probably wise ... a lot of us are out of storm mode shape. It's been a while. But while we're waiting, I have a question about the GFS before it comes around again. Seems that I recall the GFS used to have a tendency to squash southern stream storms, which is one reason it was slow to click on the Dec. 2010 storm. have there been any adjustments made to the model since then, or is that a perceived bias to watch for still? Thanks! It had 2 storms one in Jan & on in Feb. really surpressed....way down in S FL (it was a running joke on Andy Woods blog). Don't know if it got corrected or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The canadian ensembles= Look similar to GFS precip mean, a little better actually, not bad, much better than its 0z ENS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It had 2 storms one in Jan & on in Feb. really surpressed....way down in S FL (it was a running joke on Andy Woods blog). Don't know if it got corrected or not. It had the surface low for the February 2010 Valentine's Day Storm over Cuba (literally) 90 hours out. I don't think there's any reason to freak out over a small change in an ensemble mean. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It had the surface low for the February 2010 Valentine's Day Storm over Cuba (literally) 90 hours out. I don't think there's any reason to freak out over a small change in an ensemble mean. It happens. Agreed, pretty amazing model/ens support for eastern NC, I would take this 72 hours out and still feel good, although still have this feeling RDU gets fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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