Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The setup day 6/7 on the Euro ain't bad, curious to see if the ensembles aren't as suppressive. Nope. Here's a map. Note the reinforcing High building in and the lack of a low over the Lakes to screw with the thermals. There is not a strong piece of energy at the base of the trough, but can you really tell me the model knows exactly what will be there this far out? I put an X there because if there is a stronger wave than modeled, the trough would be sharper allowing for more moisture return. I circled the moisture that is there. It's not a ton, but it's not bone dry either. You wouldn't have to shake things up a whole lot to make it a whole lot better. It aint too bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nope. Here's a map. Note the reinforcing High building in and the lack of a low over the Lakes to screw with the thermals. There is not a strong piece of energy at the base of the trough, but can you really tell me the model knows exactly what will be there this far out? I put an X there because if there is a stronger wave than modeled, the trough would be sharper allowing for more moisture return. I circled the moisture that is there. It's not a ton, but it's not bone dry either. You wouldn't have to shake things up a whole lot to make it a whole lot better. It aint too bad at all. Maybe someone with SV access will give us the analog dates for Euro day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Maybe someone with SV access will give us the analog dates for Euro day 6. 81 and 91 are the top two for 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS doesnt have a single member showing a snow or ice event in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 that's an insane cold shot day 6 and 7. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hot off of the press, the 12Z Euro ensemble mean for the 72 hours ending 12Z on 2/1 has even more snowfall than today's 0Z run, which itself was snowier than the already impressive run from 12Z yesterday that gave 1-2" for many here! So, the snowier trend continues. Actually, qpf isn't higher than the 0Z, but it is colder thus leading to a higher % of the precip. as snow. Since pictures are worth a thousand words, I'll just post the Earthsat maps to show the increase: 12Z 1/22 Euro ensemble mean 1"+ snowfall 72 hours ending 12Z on 2/1: 0Z 1/22 Euro ensemble mean 1"+ snowfall 72 hours ending 12Z on 2/1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Thanks, Larry. What provider is that, by the way? StormVista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Thanks, Larry. What provider is that, by the way? StormVista? You're welcome. EarthSat. However, I don't have individual members. This is about as impressive a clown map you'll ever see 7-10 days out from the 51 member based Euro ensemble mean. I've never seen anything like these last three Euro ensemble clowns for the SE US 7-10 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You're welcome. EarthSat. However, I don't have individual members. This is about as impressive a clown map you'll ever see 7-10 days out from the 51 member based Euro ensemble mean. I've never seen anything like these last three Euro ensemble clowns for the SE US 7-10 days out! Thanks Larry, I hope you don't mind, I quoted your ensemble post over at the TN Valley forum. Nice work being on top of this. I'm fairly pumped about this time period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Thanks Larry, I hope you don't mind, I quoted your ensemble post over at the TN Valley forum. Nice work being on top of this. I'm fairly pumped about this time period as well. You're welcome and thanks. No, I don't mind especially since it also gives you guys a lot of love, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yes Larry, thanks for sharing and for all the time you put into your posts!!! Very much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Larry, I am guessing there are quite a few "tasty" individual members. I would think the ones that are more aggressive with precip and snow are not AS aggressive with an overwhelming cold snap next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I will take a look at the individual members around 6PM or so for various bigger cities in the SE. There have to be quite a few bigger ones especially with 1-2 inches shown on a mean further East than KCAE. I'd also like to note that the maps Larry have posted are actually snow. Not a mixed bag like other vendor's maps out there. I bet there is some sleet and ice mixed in for further Southern areas or with the snow for the bottom fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looking at the 12Z ensemble maps for 500mb anomalies; the GFS does have the same look around the 29-30th or so. The Euro is a bit deeper with it. Fwiw. 19 GEFS members of 20 have accumulating precip through today - 07th of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If we don't get accumulating precip out of this sometime through early February I will never trust Ensembles again. You're on notice ensembles...... The EURO ensemble mean seems to leave a trail that looks to be more of a clipperish path....a line of snow up the apps rather than along the gulf and east of the apps. I'd be curious to see what types of storms actually bring the snow on the individual members. Hope to see some gulf storms on a majority of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hope the Euro is right. We need a decent system with snow out of the gulf. What a waste of cold temps, you would think with this cold we could thread a needle but I guess first you have to have a storm out of the gulf to thread with. Can't seem to get a storm to form south west of us and take a track favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Meteostar again says no precip threw 180 hrs for mby and what falls between 216-252 is nothing more than a few passing showers Lol, looked at that last night, and to me that's the biggest tell. No rain way past truncation, suddenly, when it hasn't done that much since March, if at all. The last time Goofy had me without rain this long, I got more that 5 inches, lol, so this encourages the heck out of me. The signal flags have been waving, and waving way out there, but it's looking close that occupies me. I still think I have a chance late week into the weekend. There's chances everywhere...just out in the Pac. yet By the way, the page loading got some better, but just now it was back worse. I gave up twice, before I just left if for a half hour and I was able to log in T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It sounds like this Meterologist's thinking is in line with this conversation... Snow threats from North Carolina to Maine If I'm in violation of the rules for posting this link, please remove the post and accept my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It sounds like this Meterologist's thinking is in line with this conversation... Snow threats from North Carolina to Maine If I'm in violation of the rules for posting this link, please remove the post and accept my apologies. Saw that too. He makes a valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If we don't get accumulating precip out of this sometime through early February I will never trust Ensembles again. You're on notice ensembles...... The EURO ensemble mean seems to leave a trail that looks to be more of a clipperish path....a line of snow up the apps rather than along the gulf and east of the apps. I'd be curious to see what types of storms actually bring the snow on the individual members. Hope to see some gulf storms on a majority of the members. to be fair, the euro ensembles last week were bullish on snow for this weeken.As far as the ensembles the mean is 1/2 inch of qpf here in franklin. One member drops 3" im sure rain. Most are from .4 to .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It sounds like this Meterologist's thinking is in line with this conversation... Snow threats from North Carolina to Maine If I'm in violation of the rules for posting this link, please remove the post and accept my apologies. He's talking about this weekend, this thread is about next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Strong push of cold air on the 18z and killing any storm chances. Very cold and very dry through 189. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 He's talking about this weekend, this thread is about next Thursday.At this point I would take either this weekend or both and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Very unhappy with the performance of the GFS. So different at h5 in 3 runs now. There are only 6 hrs seperating them. There is a major problem with this model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It hasn't done well in the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Very unhappy with the performance of the GFS. So different at h5 in 3 runs now. There is only 6 hrs seperating them. There is a major problem with this model.. its 9-10 days away. The euro does the same crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 its 9-10 days away. The euro does the same crap! Atleast the EPS is holding on to something for what? 4 consecutive runs now? GFS is close to ZR in KCAE though. But it literally looks like puke (the gfs maps.) and it won't happen the way it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 its 9-10 days away. The euro does the same crap!Well.............it only makes wild swing every 12hrs instead of 6, therefore it's a better model. But seriously there are so many variables (especially in a fast, northern stream dominated flow) that it's very hard to expect even a 51 member ensemble to accurately predict something 8-12 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Fwiw for people in KCAE. 25/51 EPS members show snow. On the flip side, 45 members total show precip. Basically we have more members saying snow, then rain. The problem with this is.. the OP euro doesn't show any moisture to work with here for the timeframe. Weird. Maybe something is just wrong with my datasource as a whole and none of this data I'm looking at is even right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Fwiw for people in KCAE. 25/51 EPS members show snow. On the flip side, 45 members total show precip. Basically we have more members saying snow, then rain. The problem with this is.. the OP euro doesn't show any moisture to work with here for the timeframe. Weird. Maybe something is just wrong with my datasource as a whole and none of this data I'm looking at is even right. I believe you've been looking at what I've been looking at assuming you are referring to the wxbell charts. I will say that I've noticed a few discrepancies between what the blue bars show for deterministic snow and what the wxbell snow maps show for a few cities. For those cities blue bars show several inches more. Most other cities I've checked seemed to mostly match. Maybe either more documentation is needed for their charts and maps or maybe I'm just not looking at things right. Or the charts are full of **** heh. It's a neat way to view the data though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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