franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I was thinking the same thing... In my opinion, this storm is very similar to the Christmas 2010 scenario. The models, if I remember correctly, did not actually show anything inland until 36-48 hours out. Its actually fun to track a storm in the winter time. This is something we have not done in a long time, and I am enjoying every minute of it. I think that storm had a much stronger southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey buddy, when you go to delete an image out; just click the image itself in the quote and hit the delete key. Might be harder to do on a phone etc though.Yea I'm on my phone brother pain in the neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 CMC pust .50 - .75 down in CLT and points east and south of I-40 kind of along 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Finally decided to generate the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I was thinking the same thing... In my opinion, this storm is very similar to the Christmas 2010 scenario. The models, if I remember correctly, did not actually show anything inland until 36-48 hours out. Its actually fun to track a storm in the winter time. This is something we have not done in a long time, and I am enjoying every minute of it. Since I was obsessing over that storm as it was going it actually showed it around 140 hours or so out IRRC then lost it only to come back inland around 75 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Holy CMC Lookout that is a sick trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 One big difference is this storm will be a lot colder. The Christmas 2010 had marginal temps. Having such cold air in place and after would make this storm a blast. As others have mentioned 3/1980 was a cold storm. This is a good point we have similar QPF to that storm but with the cold air/ratios the models show with this event and well there would be a lot of people freaking out lol...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For KCHS, Meteostar GFS 12z run is brutally cold at the SFC with 850mb temperatures hovering between 0C-1C, and 925mb running generally between 0-2C. Verbatim it's a nasty mix of ZR/IP with IP/SN at the onset BUT SFC temps are in the mid 20's and fall into the low 20's during the entire duration of the event, never rebounding any higher than 27 towards the end of the event. .42 liquid equiv. QPF totals. Based on the KCHS's morning discussion and they preferred the earlier GFS/GFS ENS run over the EURO/Ensembles to reflect their forecast grids this morning, wonder how this sways them in later shifts today. The CMC for 2 consecutive runs spit out some ming boggling numbers. in the case of the FEB 2010 storm, the CMC was about double of what actually fell in roughly the same time frame. (keep in mind, CMC's warm bias) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think that storm had a much stronger southern wave. Indeed As I stated yesterday, I new at this and still learning. Looking at the Canadian out to 120 hrs it looks like the 850 temps at KECG are at -16 which is plenty cold when looking for snow. Being as that we are at least a few miles inland from the Atlantic, I still get worried with Lows tracking up the coast and bringing in warm air off the ocean and basically giving extreme coastal sections nothing but a cold rain. I might be way off base here, but it looks to me (taking the models at face value) that the possibility remains that coastal sections see nothing more than a cold rain. Any input on these thoughts? My thoughts are that it's a long way out and we are far from figuring out what is likely to happen...but temperatures look good out there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Keep in mind ratios will probably be better than 10:1 for the western fringes, so those totals are probably underdone on the clown maps (How often can we say that?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 long time lurker, first time poster. lots of great info in here, thank you. regarding the 850 temps inland, even small amounts of QPF are significan because we're looking at rations that are way higher than we normally see...correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like the Euro has initialized. I'll leave the rest to the big dogs in the forum for the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 One big difference is this storm will be a lot colder. The Christmas 2010 had marginal temps. Having such cold air in place and after would make this storm a blast. As others have mentioned 3/1980 was a cold storm. Agreed rdu. We've got cold before and after in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is slowly turning into a potentially major event for the Atlanta metro. Jmo based on trends and setup but I've been on the north Georgia gets it good bandwagon for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is slowly turning into a potentially major event for the Atlanta metro. Jmo based on trends and setup but I've been on the north Georgia gets it good bandwagon for a few days now. looks to be trending north and west, but this isn't unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 long time lurker, first time poster. lots of great info in here, thank you. regarding the 850 temps inland, even small amounts of QPF are significan because we're looking at rations that are way higher than we normally see...correct? welcome, I would agree with your thoughts here overall...assuming we actually have a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For those in the interior in the lighter blues...keep in mind the scale is different. So it's not as huge as it looks but still decent for many because 850mb temps are -10c..so ratios would be great. Hopefully appropriate ask - need a little education. Based on the maps posted (not reproduced here) how does one roughly determine the rain/snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A nw trend would be better for most of nc but worse on the coast due to warm air off the ocean right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hopefully appropriate ask - need a little education. Based on the maps posted (not reproduced here) how does one roughly determine the rain/snow line? You can use the 1000-500mb thicknesses. 540 and below is a good indication. Some of the maps are pretty low quality etc though. Sometimes the 1000-500 meter isn't a good view though. Try looking for the 850mb 0c line for snow. If you see 850mb above 0c; and you see 2m temps at or below 0c; you're looking at a mess. I you see both 2m at or below 0c and 850 at or below 0c; then you may be looking at snow. Nothing replaces raw model data/soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A nw trend would be better for most of nc but worse on the coast due to warm air off the ocean right? Correct. A north west trend benefits everyone except for folks near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A nw trend would be better for most of nc but worse on the coast due to warm air off the ocean right? Yeah a 100 mile west shift would be bad for you there, but then again the cold is strong and deep so its hard to say but you don't want to see a west trend to much if you live east of say Hwy 17 in NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Id caution anyone getting excited about the Canadian. Not because of what it shows, but because its the Canadian. In my eyes it's been horrid this year. I'd be living in an igloo I'd it's 4-7 day forecasts had been right. Just watch euro and gfs trends for the rights clues. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hopefully appropriate ask - need a little education. Based on the maps posted (not reproduced here) how does one roughly determine the rain/snow line? First take the 850 line and of course if you're north of it then that's good. Next look for the 540 line. It's a good indicator aloft that you will get snow. Typically if I am south of the 540 line but north of the 850 line it usually means ZR or IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Out to 60 Euro looks pretty close to the 00z run last night. Might be a tad further west with that digging energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Even the super progressive NAVGEM is onboard…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think that storm had a much stronger southern wave. The storm did have a much stronger shortwave; however, the general thought is still the same. There was phasing between the northern and southern stream, which is the general idea that we have now. Since I was obsessing over that storm as it was going it actually showed it around 140 hours or so out IRRC then lost it only to come back inland around 75 hours or so. I can't quite remember when the models brought it back, but I remember that western NC was not put into a warning until Christmas Day morning, less than six hours before the snow started. GSP was forecasting 1-2 inches of snow when I went to bed Christmas Eve and by Christmas morning, 4-8 inches of snow was predicted. I can see how these storms are similar due to the phasing component. If the northern and southern stream phases, which models do not handle well, then we could see something big in the southeast. The storm should move farther west if it phases also. EURO is running and it will be interesting to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah a 100 mile west shift would be bad for you there, but then again the cold is strong and deep so its hard to say but you don't want to see a west trend to much if you live east of say Hwy 17 in NC.... Thankfully I'm about 50 miles inland but it wasn't a mby ? I just want to be clear on the trends that will be made.. thanks for the info.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey Burger do you have 72 yet? I have the 500 height setup on instant weather maps. Does it look like it's already more neutral than positive or did 60 already look that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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