superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Does the American Weather Models have access to the GFS ensemble mean like it did on Raleighwx's old site? If so, does someone care to report if the 12z trended wetter further west...I think I'm signing up for the subscription this weekend! GEFS are way west from last night. Last night: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012400/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Obviously, it will likely be close on the 850's. If some of the areas getting 1.5" qpf on the model actually have 850's in the +1 to +5 range, it would be a massive IP/ZR storm of course. I'll be looking for the 850's once they're released. Either way, absent a large enough shift westward to bring the surface above 32, this would be a historic deep south and coastal storm whether snow, ZR, IP, or a combo. Maybe that happened already here and it is all plain rain? Here is the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not sure if it was posted; but here is what the WPC/HPC said this morning. AMAZING news!: THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH A NERN US LOW THAT BRINGS A TRAILINGCOLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BYCOLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THEFOLLOWING COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER IN THE MON-WED PERIOD DIFFERENCESEMERGE WITH THE EXACT HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATINGTHROUGH MID-CONTINENT INTO THE ERN STATES. ISSUES ALOFT LEAD TOMEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW DETAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTCOAST. RECENT ECMWF RUNS ARE ON THE SHARPER/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THESPREAD WITH THEIR SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A SURFACE LOW ON THE WRNSIDE OF THE SPREAD INTO WED/THU. THIS SOLTUION HAS INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM RECENT ECMWF MEANS...AND GIVEN RECENTHISTORY IN THIS PATTERN RECENT GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SCENARIOSMAY BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE. WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASEDPOTENTIAL FOR WINTERY PCPN OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATLANTICCOMPARED TO CONTINUITY AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW BRINGS A BITMORE MOISTURE AND PCPN ONSHORE COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTICECMWF. THIS SEEMS MORE CONSISTENT WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED MEANMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GEFS are way west from last night. Thanks James. I didn't know Tropical Tidbits had the Ensemble Mean precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 How much for Waycross??1.5 feet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 to clarify on the snow amounts, using ewall it looks like around one inch liquid along and just north of the 0c isotherm. So a foot instead of a foot and a half. i doubt anyone down there would complain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like a lot of NWS offices are supporting the Euro ensembles and saying the pattern supports them, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 1.5 feet for south ga and how much for atl ? Verbatim, maybe 2" on the Canadian assuming 10:1 ratios. Decreases as you head North and West of town. Carrollton would be more like 1-1.5" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's warmer based on thicknesses but sometimes that can be deceiving. Regardless, just inland would most certainly be cold enough. I don't know if I would say it's unlikely..I think there is probably about a 50/50 shot it could go that way. I think it's possible. Winds would be in a favorable direction at the surface with the high centered back over the plains/lower ms valley with the low itself off shore. So winds would likely have a northern component. Plus this is a true arctic airmass already in place and not one of these cases where locations have to wait on the cold air to arrive at the same time as the precip. I think an area of freezing rain is a distinct possibility..especially in south ga given this type of airmass. I remember watching some old weather channel broadcasts on youtube and remember seeing a lot of freezing rain was happening in south ga a few decades ago. of course this is assuming it actually comes together and it's not dry. I agree with this Off topic -- light sleet at my office in Ft. Walton Beach -- 37 degrees. Enjoying watching my old N.C. and SE peeps tracking a potential big dog -- good luck! Congrats! 1.5 feet for south ga and how much for atl ? Shush it with the mby questions Does the American Weather Models have access to the GFS ensemble mean like it did on Raleighwx's old site? If so, does someone care to report if the 12z trended wetter further west...I think I'm signing up for the subscription this weekend! Yes....and you should sign up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Folks, enough with the "how much for" questions. Simply reading the thread and looking at the maps will tell you roughly how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is there a way to get location soundings on the CMC? I'd like to check a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For those in the interior in the lighter blues...keep in mind the scale is different. So it's not as huge as it looks but still decent for many because 850mb temps are -10c..so ratios would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not sure if it was posted; but here is what the WPC/HPC said this morning. AMAZING news!: Well that sounds good....now let's get the operationals to show it! If I'm being truthful.....the best location for central NC would be about 100 miles west of what even the CMC is showing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Folks, enough with the "how much for" questions. Simply reading the thread and looking at the maps will tell you roughly how much. Yeah. You can do it in like 3 steps: 1) Know where you are on a map. That's pretty important in general around here 2) For Euro and Canadian, be ready to type "x mm in in" into Google to get your QPF. 3) Multiply by 10 for a quick and dirty guess at snowfall amount. I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to try to guess the ratio from the models - I'll leave that to the real mets. Unless you're right on the coast, no worries about temps this time from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Verbatim, maybe 2" on the Canadian assuming 10:1 ratios. Decreases as you head North and West of town. Carrollton would be more like 1-1.5" probably. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is there a way to get location soundings on the CMC? I'd like to check a few spots. http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm This canadian run is getting more attention than richard sherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Folks, enough with the "how much for" questions. Simply reading the thread and looking at the maps will tell you roughly how much. I'm using my phone as a computer since I don't have a computer so it's really really hard to read the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I Canadians I really can't believe how eerily similar this is to Feb '10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 None of the models are showing an actual phase as of right now, but yet things are still trending W. I think if we do see that phase then we could easily see a 100-200 mile shift west. This is reminding me so much of the Christmas 2010 scenario. Without the phase it was off the coast and with the phase it was a snowstorm for all of NC and a lot of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For those in the interior, keep in mind the scale is different. So it's not as huge as it looks but still decent. Quite an amazing shift from the 0z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Verbatim, the canadian looks to drop http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm This canadian run is getting more attention than richard sherman I'M THE WEATHER BEST MODEL IN THE GAME. Looks like it drops close to 10-13MM IMBY, less in the metro as you head N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey guys quoting posts... just fwiw; can you please delete the images in the quoted section before responding.. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GEFS are way west from last night. This is the 12z GFS ensembles correct? Just verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hey guys quoting posts... just fwiw; can you please delete the images in the quoted section before responding.. thanks! Yeah, totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Verbatim, the canadian looks to drop I'M THE WEATHER BEST MODEL IN THE GAME. Looks like it drops close to 10-13MM IMBY, less in the metro as you head N&W. with 850m temps close to -12c in charlotte. I'm sure surface temps are way down in the low 20s or even teens. So we wouldn't waste any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 None of the models are showing an actual phase as of right now, but yet things are still trending W. I think if we do see that phase then we could easily see a 100-200 mile shift west. This is reminding me so much of the Christmas 2010 scenario. Without the phase it was off the coast and with the phase it was a snowstorm for all of NC and a lot of SC I was thinking the same thing... In my opinion, this storm is very similar to the Christmas 2010 scenario. The models, if I remember correctly, did not actually show anything inland until 36-48 hours out. Its actually fun to track a storm in the winter time. This is something we have not done in a long time, and I am enjoying every minute of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is the 12z GFS ensembles correct? Just verifying That's the 12z GFS Ensemble Mean precip for hours 120-144...it's the precip during that timeframe, averaged for all 20 GFS ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GEFS are way west from last night. This is the 12z GFS ensembles correct? Just verifying Hey buddy, when you go to delete an image out; just click the image itself in the quote and hit the delete key. Might be harder to do on a phone etc though. That should preserve the quote tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I was thinking the same thing... In my opinion, this storm is very similar to the Christmas 2010 scenario. The models, if I remember correctly, did not actually show anything inland until 36-48 hours out. Its actually fun to track a storm in the winter time. This is something we have not done in a long time, and I am enjoying every minute of it. One big difference is this storm will be a lot colder. The Christmas 2010 had marginal temps. Having such cold air in place and after would make this storm a blast. As others have mentioned 3/1980 was a cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 As I stated yesterday, I new at this and still learning. Looking at the Canadian out to 120 hrs it looks like the 850 temps at KECG are at -16 which is plenty cold when looking for snow. Being as that we are at least a few miles inland from the Atlantic, I still get worried with Lows tracking up the coast and bringing in warm air off the ocean and basically giving extreme coastal sections nothing but a cold rain. I might be way off base here, but it looks to me (taking the models at face value) that the possibility remains that coastal sections see nothing more than a cold rain. Any input on these thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.