POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro has to come west before anybody buys this storm for inland. Coast looks good but inland folks won't be to excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sweet! I didnt look at the 108 frame. around a foot of snow in south ga/coastal carolinas it seems. Actually probably more than that. It's showing roughly 40mm in southeast ga or around 1.5 inch liquid. That would be insane. If only we could shift it northwest about 75 miles. However, remember our ratios would be really high so we could make up for the lesser liquid amounts because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I've only looked at the black and white maps, but I have double and triple checked the time stamps. It was a cach issue. As soon as I cleared it viola the color maps worked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro has to come west before anybody buys this storm for inland. Coast looks good but inland folks won't be to excited The Euro ensembles have been further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 around a foot of snow in south ga/coastal carolinas it seems. If only we could shift it northwest about 75 miles. However, remember our ratios would be really high so we could make up for the lesser liquid amounts because of that. 75 miles is well within the margin of error. Great trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take ya'lls word for it. I don't see any precip on those CMC maps.....probably doesn't matter anyway. Hoping the EURO keeps the southern stream alive and well through the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take ya'lls word for it. I don't see any precip on those CMC maps.....probably doesn't matter anyway. Hoping the EURO keeps the southern stream alive and well through the gulf. Clear your cache. That's the problem I had. CMC does what the GFS should have which is phase that energy allowing it to really pull in moisture. This is a great sign. Let's see what the good doc has to say next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My cmc maps on SV are stuck on hr 48. Thanks for posting the maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So the CMC shows a phase? That's the difference? Does the Euro phase the streams the last few runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 No, 175 miles lol I didn't want to be greedy. But yeah 150 to 175 miles sure would be nice. Just can't believe it's showing about 1.5 FEET of snow in parts of south ga/sc (assuming it's cold enough). Regardless someone just inland would get a foot more than likely if this run verified. Frustrating simply because you never see those types of amounts here in north ga so it really would suck to see that much fall in SOUTH ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 around a foot of snow in south ga/coastal carolinas it seems. Actually probably more than that. It's showing roughly 40mm in southeast ga or around 1.5 inch liquid. That would be insane. If only we could shift it northwest about 75 miles. However, remember our ratios would be really high so we could make up for the lesser liquid amounts because of that. Need 175 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take ya'lls word for it. I don't see any precip on those CMC maps.....probably doesn't matter anyway. Hoping the EURO keeps the southern stream alive and well through the gulf. So the CMC shows a phase? That's the difference? Does the Euro phase the streams the last few runs? Canadian is just digging the northern stream farther to the southwest than the GFS. Here's the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks warm on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol I didn't want to be greedy. But yeah 150 to 175 miles sure would be nice. Just can't believe it's showing about 1.5 FEET of snow in parts of south ga/sc (assuming it's cold enough). Regardless someone just inland would get a foot more than likely if this run verified. Frustrating simply because you never see those types of amounts here in north ga so it really would suck to see that much fall in SOUTH ga. The nightmare I lived in 2009. I know it all too well. I could stand for this to take a 75 mile shift and it very well could. The scary part is that it could also shift 75 miles east though that seems unlikely IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol I didn't want to be greedy. But yeah 150 to 175 miles sure would be nice. Just can't believe it's showing about 1.5 FEET of snow in parts of south ga/sc (assuming it's cold enough). Regardless someone just inland would get a foot more than likely if this run verified. Frustrating simply because you never see those types of amounts here in north ga so it really would suck to see that much fall in SOUTH ga. I know whatcha mean!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Canadian is just digging the northern stream farther to the southwest than the GFS. Here's the precip Thanks I had assumed it was phasing the northern and southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks warm on the coast. That was my first thought. Also, I'd seriously doubt any IP or ZR with this event. It's probably a rn or sn deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Baby steps folks!! This was awesome to wake up to appreciate everyone's analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't know guys, the temperatures look good for all or most involved on the Canadian. The 1000mb-700mb critical thickness line (dashed line on bottom right panel of black and white images) is running right up the SC and NC coast at hrs 108 and 120...that's a very good snow/rain line indicator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Some of those maps look so much better for Atlanta. Hoping for a trend on the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Canadian shows a pretty damn good track for central NC snowstorms, IMO. I believe HKY_WX used to have a site which had the mean tracks for surface lows in 6"+ snowstorms for Hickory and Raleigh and that looks pretty close to me. I don't know what the GGEM shows verbatim, but with that track, I'd be a little worried along the coast about serious P-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Canadian is just digging the northern stream farther to the southwest than the GFS. Here's the precip Thank Grit, glad to hear we're not really depending on a phase, because I haven't heard or seen many models showing one. "Dig baby dig" is again the phrase of the week. REALLY want to see the EURO come west after lunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks warm on the coast. It's warmer based on thicknesses but sometimes that can be deceiving. Regardless, just inland would most certainly be cold enough. The nightmare I lived in 2009. I know it all too well. I could stand for this to take a 75 mile shift and it very well could. The scary part is that it could also shift 75 miles east though that seems unlikely IMHO. I don't know if I would say it's unlikely..I think there is probably about a 50/50 shot it could go that way. That was my first thought. Also, I'd seriously doubt any IP or ZR with this event. It's probably a rn or sn deal. I think it's possible. Winds would be in a favorable direction at the surface with the high centered back over the plains/lower ms valley with the low itself off shore. So winds would likely have a northern component. Plus this is a true arctic airmass already in place and not one of these cases where locations have to wait on the cold air to arrive at the same time as the precip. I think an area of freezing rain is a distinct possibility..especially in south ga given this type of airmass. I remember watching some old weather channel broadcasts on youtube and remember seeing a lot of freezing rain was happening in south ga a few decades ago. of course this is assuming it actually comes together and it's not dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah, but that was his brothers info. Not sure if it is online anymore.. The Canadian shows a pretty damn good track for central NC snowstorms, IMO. I believe HKY_WX used to have a site which had the mean tracks for surface lows in 6"+ snowstorms for Hickory and Raleigh and that looks pretty close to me. I don't know what the GGEM shows verbatim, but with that track, I'd be a little worried along the coast about serious P-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Off topic -- light sleet at my office in Ft. Walton Beach -- 37 degrees. Enjoying watching my old N.C. and SE peeps tracking a potential big dog -- good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 around a foot of snow in south ga/coastal carolinas it seems. Actually probably more than that. It's showing roughly 40mm in southeast ga or around 1.5 inch liquid. That would be insane. If only we could shift it northwest about 75 miles. However, remember our ratios would be really high so we could make up for the lesser liquid amounts because of that. Obviously, it will likely be close on the 850's. If some of the areas getting 1.5" qpf on the model actually have 850's in the +1 to +5 range, it would be a massive IP/ZR storm rather than snow of course. I'll be looking for the 850's once they're released. Either way, absent a large enough shift westward to bring the surface above 32, this would be a historic deep south and coastal storm whether snow, ZR, IP, or a combo. Maybe a large enough shift just happened at 12Z and it is mostly just plain rain for the coast? I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol I didn't want to be greedy. But yeah 150 to 175 miles sure would be nice. Just can't believe it's showing about 1.5 FEET of snow in parts of south ga/sc (assuming it's cold enough). Regardless someone just inland would get a foot more than likely if this run verified. Frustrating simply because you never see those types of amounts here in north ga so it really would suck to see that much fall in SOUTH ga. 1.5 feet for south ga and how much for atl ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12Z GFS says that the cold is too much to let the moisture come north. Suppresses the moisture south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Does the American Weather Models have access to the GFS ensemble mean like it did on Raleighwx's old site? If so, does someone care to report if the 12z trended wetter further west...I think I'm signing up for the subscription this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/coldthreats-for-snow-next-week/2430839568001 I'm sure you all already know all of these models, but this was a nice video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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