1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[Poimen]

at 108, GGEM has snow from TX to NC

[GaWx]

KMYR looks like snow while KCHS looks to be ZR for a bit.

 

Interesting run and closer to previous coastal special runs it's had.

 

Until the EPS really relaxes on interior totals; I'm still all in.

 

 Due to the further west run of the 12Z GFS and warmer 850's, it has a sig. ZR/IP for Waycross (AYS), SAV, and CHS for late Tue-Wed. 91/28 to 1/29) as 850's largely remain just above 0C but the sfc is below 32 even at the warmest on Wed. QPF is ~0.50" for this corridor. If this were all IP, it would be as much as~2" of accumulation as modeled.

[Poimen]

at 120, GGEM is a major snow storm for most of central/south GA, and the eastern 2/3 of SC/NC

[franklin NCwx]

at 120, GGEM is a major snow storm for parts of GA, SC and NC

looks like the euro from yesterday. Man, the timing on this as slowed considerable over the past 24 hours.

[SnowNiner]

at 120, GGEM is a major snow storm for parts of GA, SC and NC

 

Hmm, I wonder what the canadian is showing that the GFS is not?  Probably a pure Miller A system with the PV further north. 

[Poimen]

[griteater]

Where do you guys get the Canadian out this fast?

[packfan98]

at 120, GGEM is a major snow storm for parts of GA, SC and NC

Any pics or comparisons to the 0z run on the precip shield or track of the low.  Sounds like it is further west.  Here's the 0z;

[franklin NCwx]

Where do you guys get the Canadian out this fast?

environment Canada.

[burgertime]

at 120, GGEM is a major snow storm for most of central/south GA, and the eastern 2/3 of SC/NC

 

I'm only out to 48 on the CMC but you can see how it's further west with the trough. Good news indeed.

[Poimen]

Where do you guys get the Canadian out this fast?

Straight from the horse's mouth

 

http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[El Kabong]

Hey Kabong,

I'm with ya on the idea of the novelty of a big storm south of us.  Fun to think of the empty bread shelves in every Dollar General south of the Gnat Line. (if ya don't know what it is, be thankful).

 

Last nights CMC gives us in south Georgia, the panhandle, L.A., something to ponder, and with what seems to be a favorable look for the coast shown on the Euro, a genuine threat for a lot of folks that mostly live vicariously through the more northern posters.

 

And yes, "where's Chris (Delta)"?

Shack,

 

It's not very often that we're too far north, but this could be one of those times.  Nevertheless, as the saying goes, there are "ducks on the pond" so we'll have to wait and see which way they fly!  The latest GFS still has the storm so hope remains.  This afternoon's EURO should be interesting as many are pulling for a westward trend.  It's been so long since we've had a storm to track, I forgot how much fun it is!

[BullCityWx]

Where do you guys get the Canadian out this fast?

http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

That's pretty significant considering the Canadian had no storm or way right a few runs ago. The west trend has commenced.

[Poimen]

Any pics or comparisons to the 0z run on the precip shield or track of the low.  Sounds like it is further west.  Here's the 0z;

It looks comparable to that. Maybe a little west and perhaps a littler warmer along the immediate coast.

[BullCityWx]

That's pretty significant considering the Canadian had no storm or way right a few runs ago. The west trend has commenced.

 

I dont know if I'd go that far. I need to see the euro further west. 

[SnowNiner]

Straight from the horse's mouth

 

http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

 

I don't see the CMC showing precip at all on land?

[griteater]

Thanks on the Canadian links.  It's definitely dropping a lot of energy into the digging trough.  The trough axis is still through Texas at hr120

[BullCityWx]

hmph

 

[packfan98]

It looks comparable to that. Maybe a little west and perhaps a littler warmer along the immediate coast.

Thanks.  From my staring at the black and white maps it looks like the low is pretty close to Cape Hatteras.  Should make the precip shield further inland.  The MA and NE folks haven't given up and thinks that they still have a chance.  I guess they do if the NW trend continues or they get a phase bomb.  It would be pretty remarkable to have such a major storm that would effect so many costal areas from Texas to Maine!

[BullCityWx]

That would appear to be close to half inch totals in the Charlotte area, more around Wadesboro and Lancaster(15MM)

[Lookout]

I dont know if I'd go that far. I need to see the euro further west. 

It's certainly a better run for us inland folks

 

 

[burgertime]

It looks comparable to that. Maybe a little west and perhaps a littler warmer along the immediate coast.

 

Am I missing something? That link you gave looks nothing like the 00z run. Keeps everything coastal. 

[burgertime]

Must be a caching issue on my machine. 

[packfan98]

I don't see the CMC showing precip at all on land?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the black and white maps come out first and the color ones with the precip you are looking at is yesterday's run.

[BullCityWx]

It's certainly a better run for us inland folks

 

 

 

Sweet! I didnt look at the 108 frame.

[Poimen]

Am I missing something? That link you gave looks nothing like the 00z run. Keeps everything coastal. 

 

I've only looked at the black and white maps, but I have double and triple checked the time stamps.

[WeatherNC]

Canadian is massive snowstorm verbatim, clown map is going to be nasty, run to run continuity, even if the solution is so extreme.

[Jon]

I dont know if I'd go that far. I need to see the euro further west. 

The other models are getting on board, so having multi-model support is comforting despite what the Euro's next run will be IMO. It's definitely a good thing.

[Poimen]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the black and white maps come out first and the color ones with the precip you are looking at is yesterday's run.

That's all I ever check because I hate the color maps. The black and whites are usually updated between 11:15-11:30 (both am and pm for their respective runs).