Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 00z Canadien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Overall, very disappointed in the overnight runs (but not surprised). The trough is not very sharp at all and the LOW continues to form way off the coast. Very progressive, as they say. Ensembles seem to want to keep this on the coast as well; at best. I'll keep hope alive till tomorrow probably but I think this is another swing and a miss for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Overall, very disappointed in the overnight runs (but not surprised). The trough is not very sharp at all and the LOW continues to form way off the coast. Very progressive, as they say. Ensembles seem to want to keep this on the coast as well; at best. I'll keep hope alive till tomorrow probably but I think this is another swing and a miss for central NC. The Euro ensmbles went even further west with the precip, and looks like the other models are trending better, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Overall, very disappointed in the overnight runs (but not surprised). The trough is not very sharp at all and the LOW continues to form way off the coast. Very progressive, as they say. Ensembles seem to want to keep this on the coast as well; at best. I'll keep hope alive till tomorrow probably but I think this is another swing and a miss for central NC. No reason to be disappointed. Look at the pattern and overall setup. Models will waffle but we're still very much in the game. If this were two days away then yes there would be reason to jump but let's see what happens over the weekend. In such a progressive pattern you'll get big swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 there's no reason to start cliffdiving over models 3+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think we really have 2 full days worth of model runs before anyone should begin to worry. Now, come 0z Monday and we still have it along the coastline then it may be time to throw in the towel for interior areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Best advice is to somewhat forget about this until the ECMWF 12Z Sunday run and let the details settle out. I sure hope not, but it could pull a change on us before then. The likelihood of it actually delivering exactly and at least what Thursdays ECMWF 12z showed is actually rather low. The best storms are usually under modeled and then gel together for a bigger event in the last 24 hours. Still, the pattern is best yet this winter for something other than Upslope Snow. Get out and enjoy a winter sports weekend on the ski slopes, some cross country (if enuf snowpack can be found) and on the ridge lines or in the woods hiking. Don't miss a key weekend for Outdoor Winter Sports ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Great analysis over the past 24 hours and a big thanks to Larry for sniffing out a potential storm. Here in central Georgia, we tend to miss out on storms because they track too far north for us to remain cold enough for snow. Now, we're fighting the exact opposite scenario...plenty of cold air, but a suppressed storm track that is leaving us on the fringe. The good news is that our area remains in a decent position to see at least light accumulations, even if the storm track doesn't pull back west. As many have stated before, I'm not sure if it's good to be in the bullseye this many days out. But, you can't help but be excited for the possibilities for the coastal areas as well as far southern Georgia and northern Florida. They simply don't get many opportunities to track a major winter storm. Plenty of time for changes to occur. Looking forward to more play by play as the GFS and Euro roll later. EDIT: I hope Chris (Delta) chimes in soon since this has the potential to impact the Macon area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My local friends here think I'm nuts calling for a Coastal Special Tuesday & Wednesday, LR forecast paints ILM w/ 3~5 inches in that timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 One thing I'll be watching for is to see if the Euro ticks west again today but then lose it our right or completely tomorrow. The last several years it would always lose a storm in the 4-5 day range after sniffing one out then find it again when you got within 72 hours. Wouldn't shock me at all to see that again even for our beach friends. As long as there is a systems floating around close enough to the coast I won't jump off until Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A well respected red tagger mentioned March 1980 for next week, obviously not on that scale but there are similarities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Let's all hope the 84hr NAM is on to something at 5h. It's pretty similar to the CMC last night at the same time frame. The NAM is actually a little further west with it's energy. If only the 84 hour NAM wasn't total garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Trend is interesting, this is per RaleighWx's models, this is out of 11 members he has through next next. As long as the Ens members stay at least the same or keep ticking up we are in good shape even if the Op keeps missing wide right at this range. 12z GEFS - 3 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater) 18z GEFS - same as 12z 0z GEFS - 5 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater) 6z GEFS - 5 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater), Yeah the main thing here is the is 00z Euro ensembles for most areas west of the coast are not supportive of the Op in that the snowfall on the Op is too low. The OP for KRDU barely hits 1", the mean is 3"+ nearing 4" 6 members have 9"+ more than half have 2"+, so 50/50 on more snow than the operational. I like where we're sitting right now. I use RDU as an example of a west trend, not because it's MBY. KCLT is the same way, 2"+ snow on the mean, Op is below 0.4"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah the main thing here is the is 00z Euro ensembles for most areas west of the coast are not supportive of the Op in that the snowfall on the Op is too low. The OP for KRDU barely hits 1", the mean is 3"+ nearing 4" 6 members have 9"+ more than half have 2"+, so 50/50 on more snow than the operational. I like where we're sitting right now. I use RDU as an example of a west trend, not because it's MBY. KCLT is the same way, 2"+ snow on the mean, Op is below 0.4"! Yeah, to be honest, for a day 5-6 potential event, I am not sure I would change a whole lot of how the modeling is going. I would like to see it tick west starting day 4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Let's all hope the 84hr NAM is on to something at 5h. It's pretty similar to the CMC last night at the same time frame. The NAM is actually a little further west with it's energy. If only the 84 hour NAM wasn't total garbage! It's the differences that it shows in the early part of the run that everyone needs to pay attention to. Just speaking for mby, but a blend of the Euro/Nam has been the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My local friends here think I'm nuts calling for a Coastal Special Tuesday & Wednesday, LR forecast paints ILM w/ 3~5 inches in that timeframe.. They all laughed! Laughed at my theories and called me mad! Mad, do you hear? But I will have my revenge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Let's all hope the 84hr NAM is on to something at 5h. It's pretty similar to the CMC last night at the same time frame. The NAM is actually a little further west with it's energy. If only the 84 hour NAM wasn't total garbage! FWIW Robert has been giving the NAM pretty high praise on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 FWIW Robert has been giving the NAM pretty high praise on his Facebook page. in the short range...84hr nam is worthless. in about 2 days it will be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah the main thing here is the is 00z Euro ensembles for most areas west of the coast are not supportive of the Op in that the snowfall on the Op is too low. The OP for KRDU barely hits 1", the mean is 3"+ nearing 4" 6 members have 9"+ more than half have 2"+, so 50/50 on more snow than the operational. I like where we're sitting right now. I use RDU as an example of a west trend, not because it's MBY. KCLT is the same way, 2"+ snow on the mean, Op is below 0.4"! Just looking at the Op Euro, it does have 0.5" QPF almost to I-95, the 12z had the 0.5" line to GSO/CLT, so that's a 60 mile shift. Hopefully 12z at least holds what the 0z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Rather than focusing on what we're getting on the tail end of what are still too-distant time frames, I prefer to see which models are lining up well to they previous 48-hour prediction. For example, if the Euro shows us all getting walloped, but its about 200 miles off on its prediction of a short wave, while the NAM or CMC is only 25 miles off, I'd tend to lend credence to the latter in that event. Since they should all eventually end up at the same place in now-casting, wouldn't the model with the best pre-storm accuracy be the one to lean on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Girlfriend has a house on Hilton Head island, that may be the place to go if a chase is justified. That or my family in Lumberton. Still plenty of room for this to trend either way. For all we know, this could get suppressed to fish storm territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The NAM did well with the Texas event far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Great analysis over the past 24 hours and a big thanks to Larry for sniffing out a potential storm. Here in central Georgia, we tend to miss out on storms because they track too far north for us to remain cold enough for snow. Now, we're fighting the exact opposite scenario...plenty of cold air, but a suppressed storm track that is leaving us on the fringe. The good news is that our area remains in a decent position to see at least light accumulations, even if the storm track doesn't pull back west. As many have stated before, I'm not sure if it's good to be in the bullseye this many days out. But, you can't help but be excited for the possibilities for the coastal areas as well as far southern Georgia and northern Florida. They simply don't get many opportunities to track a major winter storm. Plenty of time for changes to occur. Looking forward to more play by play as the GFS and Euro roll later. EDIT: I hope Chris (Delta) chimes in soon since this has the potential to impact the Macon area as well. Hey Kabong, I'm with ya on the idea of the novelty of a big storm south of us. Fun to think of the empty bread shelves in every Dollar General south of the Gnat Line. (if ya don't know what it is, be thankful). Last nights CMC gives us in south Georgia, the panhandle, L.A., something to ponder, and with what seems to be a favorable look for the coast shown on the Euro, a genuine threat for a lot of folks that mostly live vicariously through the more northern posters. And yes, "where's Chris (Delta)"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A well respected red tagger mentioned March 1980 for next week, obviously not on that scale but there are similarities... Was wondering when that would pop up, but I will say the cold that that storm had is what made it a beast, the rates and ratios were sick...this has the looks of one of the colder setups I have seen here in a LONG LONG time so even far inland areas would cash in with only .20-.50 qpf with 20:1 ratios..I of course would LOVE another one of those lol.... It was snowing 2-3" a hr for hours with temps in the mid teens all day with thunder and 40 mph winds best storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Got to post the map if you mention an old storm A well respected red tagger mentioned March 1980 for next week, obviously not on that scale but there are similarities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take a March 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take a March 1980. Overall at least for NC I cant think of one that gave more people more snow statewide than that storm....I think the lowest totals from anywhere in the state was 3" and just eyeballing the map it looks like 8-12" was the average statewide that's just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fig Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take one of these!! Give us coastal folks some lovin! On a serious note, it's awesome following all of this and reading all of your insight. Us weenies appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just glanced over EPS members. Haha, looks a Hell of a lot better than they did at 00z the night before last. No worries. KSAV and coastal areas get crushed with MAINLY snow this go around if other maps/temps are the be believed. Michelle and KCAE guys; still a EPS mean of 3"+ here. Here is a funny sight for KCAE compared to OP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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