1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[Buddy1987]

Hr 105 has a new area of precip blossoming over southwest TX that wasnt there on the 0Z. Still hanging the vort back even at 105.

[Buddy1987]

Hr 111 the 6Z GFS is a lot different in respect to the southern vort as there is significant precip heading to southern LA and gulf of mexico. Vort still hanging back this run might be good if it can keep it up and not shoot out in front of the energy dropping down.

[GaffneyPeach]

Thanks, Buddy.

[Buddy1987]

Ill have someone digest and look at this run with a little more knowledge but that was a completely different look on the GFS with the main southern stream being more dominant imho. It had a significant outbreak of precip that formed in southwest TX and move throughout the gulf to the florida panhandle and brush the GA and SC coasts. No digging with that northern stream is what is killing this thing. If we can swing that moisture north/northwest that was a good looking run in regard to precip now we just need the northern stream to do its part.

[Poimen]

The 6Z GFS finally gets there...about 24 hours later than the EC/GGEM.

 

The bottom line is that the signal for a SE snow storm is high...the details of when, where and how much are far from being resolved.

 

I've heard the 0Z EC Ensemble mean was similar to the op.

[Buddy1987]

The 6Z GFS finally gets there...about 24 hours later than the EC/GGEM.

 

The bottom line is that the signal for a SE snow storm is high...the details of when, where and how much are far from being resolved.

 

I've heard the 0Z EC Ensemble mean was similar to the op.

Poimen, what do we need to happen in order to get this thing up the coast. Block in southeast Canada to move more north and east? Have the northern stream start to dig sooner? How much sooner would you like to see it dig? Its so close but yet so far that 6Z GFS with the moisture in the gulf was impressive!

[WXinCanton]

6GFS spins up a far east NC special later in the run around hour 165

[packbacker]

The 6Z GFS finally gets there...about 24 hours later than the EC/GGEM.

 

The bottom line is that the signal for a SE snow storm is high...the details of when, where and how much are far from being resolved.

 

I've heard the 0Z EC Ensemble mean was similar to the op.

Precip wise it was better than the Op for areas west of the coast, similar to 12z run.

[FallsLake]

Guys don't let the wobble of the euro upset you. The 6z GFS this morning continues the westward trend and that's what we need to be looking for. I think the euro will start trending back westward with the next few runs; now there will definitely be some back steps. What we're looking for is overall setup. Really it's going to be the last two or three days until the real track is determined (remember x-mas storm).

 

From RAH:

 

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A DECENT S/W DIVING SEWD OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES TUESDAY...MERGING WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH THEN LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE SE U.S.
COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WOULD AID TO DEVELOP SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED SFC FRONT
OFFSHORE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
SWING MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER OUR REGION. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE S/W CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NOT
SUGGESTING A MERGER OR STRENGTHENING TAKING PLACE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
IS OFFSHORE OF GA/SC AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THE
BAROCLINICITY THAT WILL LIKELY LIE OVER THE GULF STREAM AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...SOME CREDENCE NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO
THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS SCENARIO IS STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT...A LOT CAN
CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
 

[NCSNOW]

Riding the euro ensembles. Think the threat of a pattern very conducive to bringing a winter storm to large parts of the SE Tues/Wed has more than enough consensus from the models and their ensembles to qualify as legit now. The weekend model cycles will be very  interesting to watch the trends. I'm biased but hugging the euro ensembles is the best medicine. As we get more toward Sunday time frame we should hopefully be able to use more blend of other suites, espeacilly their ensembles in order to get a firmer idea of our back yard details. The million dollar question is qpf  

[NavarreDon]

GSP's overnight disco:

 

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGFNTLY WRT TO HOW SHARP THE S/W WILL BE BY
WED NIGHT. THE ENS MEMBERS OF THE GFS SHOW THE BEST SPREAD TO THE
EAST OF THE MEAN TROF INDICATING A QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST OP GFS. THIS
SCENARIO ENABLES A SUPRESSING CA SFC HIGH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS COME IN WEAKER THAN IT/S PREVIOUS RUN WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...YET STILL DOES FORM A SFC CYCLONE OFF THE ATL COAST BY 12Z
WED...WHICH IS SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT TO THE 00Z CMC SOLN. ALL MODELS
DO DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROF AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE -SNSH ACROSS THE ERN MOST ZONES. THIS IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO THO CONSIDERING THE MODEL DISPREPANCIES AND RUN
TO RUN TRENDS. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SNOW POPS REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I85 TUE NIGHT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD DAY WED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN GOOD INSOLATION. THE LLVL THERMAL TROF
MODIFIES BETTER ON THU...HOWEVER MAXES WILL LIKELY STILL BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BY FRI AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT S/LY THU ALOWING THE BEST WARM UP TO THE WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME -SNSH ACROSS THE EXTREME SW/RN NC MTNS LATE THU.

[burgertime]

As usual the models are going to go back and forth with this. Everything depends on how far the energy digs SW of here and how far west that trough gets. Energy will not even be properly sampled until probably Sunday night so even if the trough to the west is nice and sharp which piece of energy does the model hone in on? This is going to be one of those schizophrenic next couple of days on this board. Don't get to Lookout's cliff until about Monday folks. 

[timnc910]

I'm feeling confident about this one.. the euro and its ensemble have been consistent yesterday and continue to show a storm next Tuesday. Euro now has back up from the canadian and the gfs ensembles are starting to come around also... the local mets in the east are already talking about this system and that not like them until about 3 days out from the event but already a 40% chance Tuesday and Wednesday for wintry precip.

[Brick Tamland]

The one thing I was worried about was it going too far east. It does look like there will be snow, but just a matter of how much and where. I would love to see it one back west some and there is plenty of time.

[Lowpressure]

As usual the models are going to go back and forth with this. Everything depends on how far the energy digs SW of here and how far west that trough gets. Energy will not even be properly sampled until probably Sunday night so even if the trough to the west is nice and sharp which piece of energy does the model hone in on? This is going to be one of those schizophrenic next couple of days on this board. Don't get to Lookout's cliff until about Monday folks. 

Good post. Sums up the scenario well. Players are on the field, just needs to get sorted out. Long weekend of model watching ahead.

[packbacker]

6z GEFS members most bullish yet.

[metalicwx366]

6z GEFS members most bullish yet.

Post some of them.

[strongwxnc]

Two great points to keep in mind both which will not be determined, as you stated, until the end of the weekend.

 

Either way, tracking will be fun.

 

 

As usual the models are going to go back and forth with this. Everything depends on how far the energy digs SW of here and how far west that trough gets. Energy will not even be properly sampled until probably Sunday night so even if the trough to the west is nice and sharp which piece of energy does the model hone in on? This is going to be one of those schizophrenic next couple of days on this board. Don't get to Lookout's cliff until about Monday folks. 

[packbacker]

Post some of them.

On my phone but here is link

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f156.html

[RevDodd]

Two great points to keep in mind both which will not be determined, as you stated, until the end of the weekend.

 

Either way, tracking will be fun.

Agreed. I think we'd all like the entire southeast to get crushed, but this is like hunting a 14-point buck as deer season winds down. Everyone has to dust off their tracking skills and watch for signs. And someone is going to go home with a trophy buck.

[packbacker]

#1 CIP's analog for day 5 on the GFS is 12/31/2001, a couple days later wasn't to bad of a winter storm in the SE.

[griteater]

The 06z GFS is actually completely different than the 00z in terms of the key vort maxes.  The vort max/shortwave we've been watching all along tracks farther north on the 06z run through Missouri, the KY/TN border, and into northern VA.  Then there are 2 pieces of energy, one off the Pacific Jet, and one off the Arctic Jet, that drop into the eastern trough and lead to precip in coastal areas, but later, on Thurs night.  The Euro is slower and weaker with that trailing shortwave complex compared to the 06z GFS.   Nothing has changed with the potential here...vort max/shortwave mess will have to get sorted out in time.

[metalicwx366]

I'm actually excited for this threat. We might actually see some accumulating snow for the first time in this area since 1989. TWC has a 60% chance of wintry mix and wunderground says wintry mix with accumulations of snow and ice up to 1 inch. Then snow showers the next morning. NWS says rain Tuesday night.

We should let GaWx start all the threads. He started the one in March last year and we all got flurries and snow showers.

[griteater]

For the 20 GFS Ensemble members on the 06z GFS, I have a rough count of 4 that produce precip inland, with 8 confining precip to coastal areas, and 12 members mostly dry...this is for NC/SC.  There are varying timeframes in which the precip occurs, but it's over the course of next week

[Brick Tamland]

On my phone but here is link

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f156.html

 

7 out of 12 look good, while 5 out of 12 look very good.

[raysum]

From RaleighWx twitter:

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx12m

00z ECMWF ENS remains very supportive of significant storm and is a bit further west on the mean precip/snow shield.

[RevDodd]

From RaleighWx twitter:

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx12m

00z ECMWF ENS remains very supportive of significant storm and is a bit further west on the mean precip/snow shield.

Then he showed the 6Z GFS, just to keep folks level...except on the Outer Banks, of course.

[packbacker]

For the 20 GFS Ensemble members on the 06z GFS, I have a rough count of 4 that produce precip inland, with 8 confining precip to coastal areas, and 12 members mostly dry...this is for NC/SC.  There are varying timeframes in which the precip occurs, but it's over the course of next week

 

Trend is interesting, this is per RaleighWx's models, this is out of 11 members he has through next next.  As long as the Ens members stay at least the same or keep ticking up we are in good shape even if the Op keeps missing wide right at this range.

 

12z GEFS - 3 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater)

18z GEFS - same as 12z

0z GEFS - 5 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater)

6z GEFS - 5 members had precip back to I-95 (at least 0.25" or greater), 

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 21 mins

33/54 ECM ENS members show snow for RDU. 21 2+ inches. 14 6+ inches. 7 9+ inches.

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 20 mins

For ILM 45/54 show some snow. 35 2+ inches. 28 6+ inches. 20 9+ inches.