Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 For reference of the last two GFS runs here are for KCAE: 00z: 06z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro doesn't have that little piece of energy it had around 28th...but it gets really friggen cold so there will be enough cold air to work with down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GaWx, so in other words, another marginal event. Probably shows rain for most of Alabama and West GA. I'll pass.No event per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Keep in mind; the Euro still had many members showing some large snowfall totals for many even though the OP snowfall maps were pretty sparse in earlier runs. So if the OP is empty; don't freak out yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't have any empirical data to back this up, but it seems like the Euro has had more storms shown in the 5-7 day time frame this year than the GFS (and than it normally does), only to cave to the GFS's no storm solution. Usually, both models have storms in the 8+ day period, only to eventually lose them. But this year, it seems like I've seen the Euro show more threats at a more reasonable time frame, when the GFS is showing nothing. And the GFS has turned out correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't have any empirical data to back this up, but it seems like the Euro has had more storms shown in the 5-7 day time frame this year than the GFS (and than it normally does), only to cave to the GFS's no storm solution. Usually, both models have storms in the 8+ day period, only to eventually lose them. But this year, it seems like I've seen the Euro show more threats at a more reasonable time frame, when the GFS is showing nothing. And the GFS has turned out correct. you are correct sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't have any empirical data to back this up, but it seems like the Euro has had more storms shown in the 5-7 day time frame this year than the GFS (and than it normally does), only to cave to the GFS's no storm solution. Usually, both models have storms in the 8+ day period, only to eventually lose them. But this year, it seems like I've seen the Euro show more threats at a more reasonable time frame, when the GFS is showing nothing. And the GFS has turned out correct. Yes, GFS has been all over the place, but it hasn't been the one showing the storms in the long range like the Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't have any empirical data to back this up, but it seems like the Euro has had more storms shown in the 5-7 day time frame this year than the GFS (and than it normally does), only to cave to the GFS's no storm solution. Usually, both models have storms in the 8+ day period, only to eventually lose them. But this year, it seems like I've seen the Euro show more threats at a more reasonable time frame, when the GFS is showing nothing. And the GFS has turned out correct. you are correct sir! It totally disagree. Not that the Euro has been great but more often than not it seems that the GFS has been caving to the Euro in the medium to LR. The thing is this winter both have showed different solutions it seems every day...but when the Euro has latched on it's usually the GFS that has followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GaWx, so in other words, another marginal event. Probably shows rain for most of Alabama and West GA. I'll pass. Yes, me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 you are correct sir! It's usually the other way around. Not sure why it's different this year. Either way, it seems really hard to put together a few base hits in a row.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 By the way Euro has weak LP at 198 in northern LA. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It totally disagree. Not that the Euro has been great but more often than not it seems that the GFS has been caving to the Euro in the medium to LR. The thing is this winter both have showed different solutions it seems every day...but when the Euro has latched on it's usually the GFS that has followed suit.while the euro has been better with the overall pattern. In the 5-10 day range the euro has given us multiple winter storms, while the gfs was having none of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Don't think I ever recall such a long period of dry weather in the winter. We almost never go a week without precipitation this time of year. This is like south Florida weather, minus the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 while the euro has been better with the overall pattern. In the 5-10 day range the euro has given us multiple winter storms, while the gfs was having none of it. Winter storms or not the GFS has been having none of anything only to end up caving to the Euro. Case in point the clipper last night in eastern NC. GFS was showing nothing until the last minute. Euro had it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 The 12Z Wed. Euro has the 1/28 storm further offshore but it is still there. It gives a portion of the Outer Banks a very rare 1" of snow. However, the widespread 1"+ snow from CHS to ILM isn't there like it was on two of the last three runs. Regardless, that still should be watched for potential coastal mischief. The 2nd storm of the 1/22 0Z run (for 1/30) isn't there because the cold air is much more overwhelming and keeps a very dry flow intact. It has KATL below 32 from ~6 PM Mon. night 1/27 through about noon on Thu 1/30, an incredible ~66 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 As long as the models agree on the cold I'm not worried, I feel confident we can thread the needle in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 As for the Euro today it keeps that LP just chilling out in LA and Eastern TX. Looks like it's finally getting picked up by some northern energy. Hard to extrapolate but by that time it looks like it might not do too well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 @228 liftoff...it's sending a system to the OV. Let's see what the ENS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Bit of development/enhanced precip off the coast of sc. too late for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The 12Z Wed. Euro has the 1/28 storm further offshore but it is still there. It gives a portion of the Outer Banks a very rare 1" of snow. However, the widespread 1"+ snow from CHS to ILM isn't there like it was on two of the last three runs. Regardless, that still should be watched for potential coastal mischief. The 2nd storm of the 1/22 0Z run (for 1/30) isn't there because the cold air is much more overwhelming and keeps a very dry flow intact. It has KATL below 32 from ~6 PM Mon. night 1/27 through about noon on Thu 1/30, an incredible ~66 hours!! james Spann says we could go 64 hours without getting above freezing this week, with temps possibly not getting above freezing the next 2 days. FFC has me above freezing by a few degrees though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If we want to have ANY chance at a snow (and I think the period we are looking at is as good a period as we will have had to this point), we can't have THAT much cold air come down. Hopefully this is just a blip, as we need the coldest of air to hang out just north of here, allowing something to develop and scoot underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Verbatim Euro would be ZR for a good portion of NC at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If we want to have ANY chance at a snow (and I think the period we are looking at is as good a period as we will have had to this point), we can't have THAT much cold air come down. Hopefully this is just a blip, as we need the coldest of air to hang out just north of here, allowing something to develop and scoot underneath it. Jan of 2011 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 On the bright side maybe one of these systems will help us out by slowing the pattern down some... its just to progressive for anything to have time to form and bring us a real snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Burger, I was talking about specific storm threats as opposed to the overall pattern. The Euro and it's ensembles have done a good job with that. I just remember seeing more storms show up on the Euro inside of 7 days or so, while the GFS had it dry, than the other way around...although, I've seen the GFS pull that a couple of times too. But like I said, I don't have anything other than my memory of my observations to back that up with. I guess the broader take-away is that if it's going to snow in this pattern, we probably aren't going to know about it outside of 72 hours. By the way, I'd much, much, much rather have a squashed look in the LR than an amped up one...if I had a choice. In my experience, it's much easier for a fish storm to become a winter storm than an Apps runner to become a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yes, me too. ok you two want to explain? if not you should probably stay in the obs and banter thread like I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Worthless for me to post the GEFS plume maps for 12z in KCAE because the system was delayed and the charts don't go that far. Just remembered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Verbatim Euro would be ZR for a good portion of NC at the end of the run. Verbatim, in addition to the aforementioned NC ZR and 0.10 to 0.25" ZR in the far NW corner of SC, there's 0.25-0.30" of ZR late 1/31 to early 2/1 for N GA along and north of a line from the northern ATL burbs to Athens northward. There actually is some wedging and the cold that has to be scoured out it is very impressive. There's ~1" of snow 2/1 in far NE GA, far SW NC, and the far NW corner of SC. So, even with an unfavorable shift on this run, it still gives some wintry precip. to parts of the SE from two different systems including 1" for part of the Outer Banks 1/28. That tells me there's lots of potential due to the amount and longevity of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 So is there nothing on the table now for another clipper this Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The setup day 6/7 on the Euro ain't bad, curious to see if the ensembles aren't as suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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