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1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

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Just how good is the UKMet? I recall seeing verification scores where the UK turned out to verify more often 5 days out than even the GFS.. However, it's not mentioned very much on this board and elsewhere.

 

The UKMET has a known southern bias with coastal lows.  That is one thing that has been proven.  The UKMET is trying/or did or wanted to do something I think too far off the coast.  But these maps we have currently really aren't too good.  Meteocentre's may give us a bit more info.

 

Overall, the model is looked at pretty closely when the Euro is showing what it had at 12z just for trends or so.  At least in my experience on weather forums. 

 

It's basically not the end of the world if it shows nothing much like the GFS this year.

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Just how good is the UKMet? I recall seeing verification scores where the UK turned out to verify more often 5 days out than even the GFS.. However, it's not mentioned very much on this board and elsewhere.

You get varying opinions.  My take is that it is good with the overall 500mb pattern in the mid range.  As you get into closer range, say inside 3 days, it tends to miss the mark with the specifics...and isn't used much at all in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast from what I've seen.  I have seen it handle the southern stream well though (in El Ninos).

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CMC is huge hit, maybe 25 miles east of Euro.

that's what I thought all though it does seem to like to am up storms for us at this range. Nevertheless, I would rather see it amped and give the euro support than to leave it by itself with possibly some eukmet support.

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CMC is huge hit, maybe 25 miles east of Euro.

 

Would you mind sharing your source with us?  If it's free of course.  I can't for the life of me get any consistent updated/know what the Hell I'm looking at with these sideways maps etc.  Apologize for giving false info on the GGEM if it indeed is an okay hit.

 

Edit: its on wxbell I forgot..

 

It is a good hit...

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Would you mind sharing your source with us?  If it's free of course.  I can't for the life of me get any consistent updated/know what the Hell I'm looking at with these sideways maps etc.  Apologize for giving false info on the GGEM if it indeed is an okay hit.

Weatherbell. AmericanWx site will have it too in a few mins.

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I think the GGEM is nice tonight.  I'm on the fringes, but it's a huge shift from 12z, which I think is the important thing.  We're on the road to greatness!  Let's just hope we don't crash on the way there! :)

Preach it brother.

 

My back yard needs it bad and so do my kids. Its been since the Christmas 2010 storm that I've had over 2 inches here.

 

AMEN

 

sorry to get off topic

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I think the GGEM is nice tonight.  I'm on the fringes, but it's a huge shift from 12z, which I think is the important thing.  We're on the road to greatness!  Let's just hope we don't crash on the way there! :)

I truly believe those of us well inland should keep their excitement to a minimum because this very well could be one of those historic events where the coast/lower piedmont get drilled. It's rare but it does happen and to me, given the setup and the amount of cold involved, I think odds favor the coast or areas further south than us in the interior. That doesn't mean it won't shift northwest but i think there is too much thought that it will at the moment just because that is what we are used to.

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Wow...that's a screwjob for the Piedmont region of the SE. Atlanta, Charlotte, etc would just get nothing while the coastal areas are getting buried....

 

That's a worrying aspect of this system.  If there isn't a West trend, many are shut out.  The Euro showed this to an extent.. The Canadian is slightly East of the Euro with the axis of snow as a whole... but... closer to interior areas is the big amounts.. and huge amounts on the coast of course.

 

You'd think this thing has to come west a little bit depending on many variables, but I will leave that explanation to someone much smarter than I about it.

 

I think two global models having a storm and from what we hear the 00z GFS being wet is a good sign though.  The Euro has me extremely stressed and I'm drinking. :(

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Well, I've been looking closer by than ya'll, and Goofy isn't letting me down.   The cloud cover has stopped the temps in the mid 20's and the virga is streaking in.  I expect I'll see something if I stay up long enough, and the shield doesn't shrink south on me.  The moisture is picking up back in western Ala.  Just too much going on in the gulf, with short waves on Goofy the past few days to ignore..for me anyway.  We'll see.  T

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Well, I've been looking closer by than ya'll, and Goofy isn't letting me down.   The cloud cover has stopped the temps in the mid 20's and the virga is streaking in.  I expect I'll see something if I stay up long enough, and the shield doesn't shrink south on me.  The moisture is picking up back in western Ala.  Just too much going on in the gulf, with short waves on Goofy the past few days to ignore..for me anyway.  We'll see.  T

 

you know tony... larry spoke of this event you are seeing being way too dry as you head east.. but even though it's virga; radar isn't too darn bad tonight.  I used the accuweather radar that over amps it; my GRLEVEL isn't showing any precip at all (even virga) in GA though.

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