1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[BIG FROSTY]

This is what is worrying me for the western carolinas/north ga quite frankly. I don't like seeing essentially all of the ensembles on the euro and the gfs showing the bulk of the precip so far south. I mean it's one thing for the operational runs to do it but I fear the cold air is so strong it very well could keep this thing really supressed.

 

 

I mean the gfs is showing -20c 850mb temps at hour 120 almost to the nc mountains,  with the gfs/euro showing 850mb temps of -14 to -16c in general over the western carolinas/north ga

 

That is some serious cold and it's hard to picture much precip being thrown back into an airmass this cold over the interior southeast. Plus if the water temps are colder than normal, the baroclonic zone will obviously be further south too. For us interior folks, I just don't know. All these "it will trend west" posts might be premature or wishful thinking.

I am 100% in your camp, for it not getting this far inland. (as of now)  I got to see a lot of westward shift before I even begin to think I have a chance....

[Tacoma]

ON TUESDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE

TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH

TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES....A

WIDE FIELD OF H5 Q-CONVERGENCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND SLIDE DUE

EAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST

COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE/COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SC

COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE QPF WILL DEVELOP AS

FAR WEST AS THE NC MTNS. IF THIS EVENT MATERIALIZES...PRECIPITATION

WILL FALL AS SNOW AS COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE

12Z RUN DOES LACK CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL TREND THE

FORECAST HIGHER POPS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL

RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD

REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

this from GSP/NWS

[tarheelwx]

I think the most significant thing today is that the Euro has shifted to a major snowstorm for parts of the southeast inside the 5 day window.  This is quite signficant because such changes in this window of time often are correct.  If 00z confirms, i'm pretty much sold.

TW

 

edit: obviously even if it does happen there will be some changes compared to what was shown on 12z euro.

[RevDodd]

You don't want to be in the bullseye quite yet!!

IIRC the Christmas 2010 storm planted central NC in the bulls-eye 5 days out, then drifted. The day before, it suddenly whipsawwed back and we got hammered.

 

But yeah, watch trends and don't pillage the IGA just yet.

[HKY_WX]

One interesting tid bit as well, is the origin of the s/w in this case isn't subtropical. It's more polar, in fact the s/w enters the US near eastern montana. This will be a fun one to watch.

[Lookout]

I think that's true to a degree, but 5 days out if you told me the gfs was supressed 500 miles and the euro was a hit, i would take it. (;

 

Both models are so cold though. I mean if temps were "half" this cold, I would certainly think the gfs is doing it's usual thing of crushing things due to it's cold bias. But if  temps are that cold or close to it it probably isn't far off. The euro is wetter over the interior but it's also warmer not surprisingly.  But it's still darn cold over the interior...especially along/west of the mountains.

 

But again, it's not just the operational models..it's the ensembles showing the best snow well to the south and east. I would like to see at least some further west. But if it's cold enough for snow along the coast and it does snow there, I'm having a hard time picturing a lot of precip this far inland.

 

Long ways off and much can change for sure but there are some things to be concerned about for us snow starved interior folks.

You don't want to be in the bullseye quite yet!!

Thanks for saying the obvious. But it's not about being in the bullseye..it's about seeing a buttload of cold...almost too cold for us in the interior. This very well may end up being a great storm for the coastal and lower piedmont areas.

[msuwx]

I appreciate you guys looking for my opinion, and I loved the Big Bang Theory reference. Hahaha.

Bottom line is that this has everything to do with the orientation and track of that incoming vort max. On the 12z Euro, the vort is fairly compact and digs as far west as parts of Utah as it is digging south. We need it to continue to dig out west like that to have a chance. If we start seeing it dig more toward the Midwest, we get another clipper.

The modeling has been hinting at this possibility for a while now. It's just that prior to the 12z Euro, the precip remain confined to coastal areas due to the track/orientation of the vort max.

I do think this is a realistic possibility. However, I would greatly temper any real excitement at this point. Very, very subtle differences in that vort could mean huge changes.

The good news is the Euro has pretty good ensemble support. In fact, almost excellent support when looking at the 500mb height field. And if the Euro were to be correct, the snow ratios would be very high with very cold 850s and sfc temps.

[kvegas-wx]

Given the trends of the last couple of years this system has as much of a chance to slide south of charleston wv as it does charleston sc. They have all shifted NW from the 7-10 day progs. That said we really havent seen the deep cold so far south like we have this year with the PV paying a visit. So maybe the king has this one pegged early? Eager to see the 00z runs later.

[DueUCMe]

From the NWS in Raleigh...

 

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE TRANSITION BACK TO FRIGID AIR
BEGINS MON AFTERNOON AS THE POLAR LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC REASSERTS
ITSELF. MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT NW
TO SE INTO CENTRAL NC BY MIDDAY... THEN THE COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER
PAST THE MOUNTAINS INTO NC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LITTLE ELSE... DUE TO
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT... AND AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT FOR MON. HIGHS FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NW
TO LOW 50S SE STILL LOOK REASONABLE. POLAR AIR POURS INTO THE AREA
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A LARGE STRONG YUKON-SOURCED 1045+ MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN SE TOWARD NC. THE POLAR FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF AND FL WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY ROLLING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE GA COAST TUE MORNING
WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT... BUT DPVA AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE 850 MB FRONT KICKS
BACK TO THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS MANAGES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF
DEPICTS A MORE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX TRACKING NE THROUGH
NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED... WITH A SURFACE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE GFS... AND BRINGS CONSIDERABLE BANDED PRECIP BACK
OVER NC ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. IN EITHER CASE... ANY PRECIP
WOULD ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE SNOW... WITH 1000-850 MB AND 850-700 MB
PARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH EXTREMELY COLD (UNDER 1270 M AND 1530 M
RESPECTIVELY). WITH QUESTIONS REMAINING REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT-PRODUCING VORTICITY
MAX.... WILL EASE INTO A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT BY PLACING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR MASS HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS NC
WED SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-35 RANGE.
DRY WEATHER LIKELY WED NIGHT/THU WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS... ALTHOUGH THE RETREAT OF THE POLAR LOW UP INTO FAR NE CANADA
TOWARD GREENLAND AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS HEADING INTO LATE WEEK. -GIH

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[Thrasher Fan]

Good job, good effort FFC. Smh.

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT FORCES
A CANADIAN AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES
TO HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADVERTISED. HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO FORECAST DEW
POINTS...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED SLIGHTLY TOO DRY.

 

 

Mild temps you guys. lol

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like the GFS is trending better too. Either one looks good for snow here. Just a matter of how much. 3 inches or over 6. I will gladly take either.

[toxictwister00]

Good job, good effort FFC. Smh.

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG

TERM...WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT FORCES

A CANADIAN AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES

TO HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL

RUNS...WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

ADVERTISED. HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO FORECAST DEW

POINTS...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED SLIGHTLY TOO DRY.

 

 

Mild temps you guys. lol

 

I wasn't aware 40's to low 50's over the weekend and 30's and teens next week were considered mild here now.

[NEGa]

I think the most significant thing today is that the Euro has shifted to a major snowstorm for parts of the southeast inside the 5 day window.  This is quite signficant because such changes in this window of time often are correct.  If 00z confirms, i'm pretty much sold.

TW

 

edit: obviously even if it does happen there will be some changes compared to what was shown on 12z euro.

fwiw i agree. these 10 day hour 240 storm potentials are for the birds and virtually never pan out.  however this time frame is more interesting, esp with apparent support from others.  while its hard to believe it will occur as progged now, it could.  this will be an interesting one for sure - the usual missing ingredient the last couple of years, the cold air, is here.  so its just how cold, how far south and where the zone sets up for the storm to ride and throw up some decent qpf

[Wow]

I appreciate you guys looking for my opinion, and I loved the Big Bang Theory reference. Hahaha.

Bottom line is that this has everything to do with the orientation and track of that incoming vort max. On the 12z Euro, the vort is fairly compact and digs as far west as parts of Utah as it is digging south. We need it to continue to dig out west like that to have a chance. If we start seeing it dig more toward the Midwest, we get another clipper.

The modeling has been hinting at this possibility for a while now. It's just that prior to the 12z Euro, the precip remain confined to coastal areas due to the track/orientation of the vort max.

I do think this is a realistic possibility. However, I would greatly temper any real excitement at this point. Very, very subtle differences in that vort could mean huge changes.

The good news is the Euro has pretty good ensemble support. In fact, almost excellent support when looking at the 500mb height field. And if the Euro were to be correct, the snow ratios would be very high with very cold 850s and sfc temps.

 

Good analysis.  This is a polar jet s/w swinging around the PV.  The farther west this wave can trend the better for us.  We need ample separation from the PV to allow this trough axis to go neutral/negative and bomb out the low.  The 12z Euro and some of the global ensemble members are pretty close to getting this done.

[timnc910]

Here's the discussion from morehead city.. this system has their attention

ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY MON AND CROSS LATE. SHLD WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME 50S ESP OVER THE SRN TIER. MORE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE CST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE, PRECIP BECOMING MORE LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW IS SHOVED FARTHER OFFSHORE BY INCOMING FULL LATITUDE TROF. HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FOR NOW AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL IF THE WETTER MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PTYPE WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. A MODEL CONCENSUS WOULD FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP OVER INLAND AREAS WITH PERHAPS A MIX OF LIQUID/FROZEN PTYPE ALONG THE COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. SFC HIGH PRES RETURNS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY CLEAR BUT COLD CONDITIONS.

[WeatherNC]

OK lets get one thing straight. The Euro seems to be steeped in mythology all of the sudden with people claiming it has shown snow many times. It hasn't . Plain and simple. This winter I think I've witnessed the Euro showing 1 3+inch snowfall in the medium range twice. It has shown some clippers diving down with light precip. It has not shown any "big dog" snows within 200 hours numerous times. I'll sit here and wait while you guys show me all the examples of the times it's shown snow. I'm not saying this will happen or to take it to the bank, but this myth about the Euro has got to stop. The GFS has caved to it more times than it has caved to the GFS. 

 

Agree, I read one comment in the MA thread about the GFS being more accurate than the EC right now, went to check out scores, NH inside day 6 from 1000 up to 200mb, EC still holds the edge by a good margin.  Years passed, we were almost always good for the day 7-10 threat that showed up for a run or two, this Winter, not so much.  GFS fantasy storms are pretty much non-existent, when one used to be able to bet on at-least one during its 4 runs a day.  Now we have the Euro, inside its wheelhouse, ~ day 5, with almost excellent ENS support as Matt stated, some folks have to be at-least cautiously optimistic.  Devil is always in the finer details which all models struggle to resolve at this range.  Fact the ens, which is built to account for small scale variations in initial conditions and varying perturbations as those conditions are stepped still gives roughly the same result, would lead myself to believe this is more than just a blip.

[Shawn]

Fired some more data over to Larry to check out for a post.

 

Guys, I really wish I could show all of you some of this stuff.  It's been an extremely long time since I've seen it..  The Euro is going insane with a monster possibility... OP & more importantly almost all EPS members.  Larry should have a great post in a bit with more details. <3

[Wow]

My (hopeful) scenario:

 

 

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for posting your thoughts Mathew !!

 

I appreciate you guys looking for my opinion, and I loved the Big Bang Theory reference. Hahaha.

Bottom line is that this has everything to do with the orientation and track of that incoming vort max. On the 12z Euro, the vort is fairly compact and digs as far west as parts of Utah as it is digging south. We need it to continue to dig out west like that to have a chance. If we start seeing it dig more toward the Midwest, we get another clipper.

The modeling has been hinting at this possibility for a while now. It's just that prior to the 12z Euro, the precip remain confined to coastal areas due to the track/orientation of the vort max.

I do think this is a realistic possibility. However, I would greatly temper any real excitement at this point. Very, very subtle differences in that vort could mean huge changes.

The good news is the Euro has pretty good ensemble support. In fact, almost excellent support when looking at the 500mb height field. And if the Euro were to be correct, the snow ratios would be very high with very cold 850s and sfc temps.

 

 

No doubt on the bold below.. Times they are a changing.

Agree, I read one comment in the MA thread about the GFS being more accurate than the EC right now, went to check out scores, NH inside day 6 from 1000 up to 200mb, EC still holds the edge by a good margin.  Years passed, we were almost always good for the day 7-10 threat that showed up for a run or two, this Winter, not so much.  GFS fantasy storms are pretty much non-existent, when one used to be able to bet on at-least one during its 4 runs a day.  Now we have the Euro, inside its wheelhouse, ~ day 5, with almost excellent ENS support as Matt stated, some folks have to be at-least cautiously optimistic.  Devil is always in the finer details which all models struggle to resolve at this range.  Fact the ens, which is built to account for small scale variations in initial conditions and varying perturbations as those conditions are stepped still gives roughly the same result, would lead myself to believe this is more than just a blip.

[tramadoc]

I'm still learning how to decipher these maps and the intricate details. Excuse me if I am wrong, but with the maps posted above, the 540 line is running through North Georgia, Northwest SC, Western NC, and 98% of Virginia. Do these maps close off the rain/snow line to where the 540 line is notated or does this go all the way to the coast in GA, SC, NC, and VA?

[LovingGulfLows]

My (hopeful) scenario:

 

 

 

 

That would crush Atlanta. We'd likely be under the comma head/deformation band and get some insane snow rates.

[Shawn]

Never a bad thing to see this from KCAE:

 

THE INTERESTED PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RECENT TREND OF   THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE   MEAN TROUGH AND AMPLIFYING THE 500MB FLOW ENOUGH TO INDUCE THE   DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE   AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN   ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WHILE COMBINING WITH THERMAL PROFILES THAT   WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.  AT THIS POINT WILL OPT TO   CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE   MONITORED.  

[Wow]

Maybe this will be like those early 19th century snows you read in the newspaper archives with crazy snow totals from GA up to VA with frigid cold air

[buckeyefan1]

My (hopeful) scenario:

 

 

I'd like a slight shift south and west    

 

Maybe this will be like those early 19th century snows you read in the newspaper archives with crazy snow totals from GA up to VA with frigid cold air

 It would be nice to have all the se crew enjoy the same system.  

[MotoWeatherman]

I'm still learning how to decipher these maps and the intricate details. Excuse me if I am wrong, but with the maps posted above, the 540 line is running through North Georgia, Northwest SC, Western NC, and 98% of Virginia. Do these maps close off the rain/snow line to where the 540 line is notated or does this go all the way to the coast in GA, SC, NC, and VA?

The 850 zero line is a better rough indicator than the 540 line so start with looking at that.

[pcbjr]

I'd like a slight shift south and west  

 

 It would be nice to have all the se crew enjoy the same system.  

 south would be fine ...

[Shawn]

Fwiw, 48/50 members show precip for kcae.  some over an inch - 1.5 inches.  others really light.. but thats a lot!

[timnc910]

Fwiw, 48/50 members show precip for kcae. some over an inch - 1.5 inches. others really light.. but thats a lot!

If that doesn't get anyone intrigued I don't know what will

[franklin NCwx]

The 850 zero line is a better rough indicator than the 540 line so start with looking at that.

I see your interest is up with this system. Have not seen you around in awhile. You thinking this turns the corner earlier?

[WeatherNC]

I'm still learning how to decipher these maps and the intricate details. Excuse me if I am wrong, but with the maps posted above, the 540 line is running through North Georgia, Northwest SC, Western NC, and 98% of Virginia. Do these maps close off the rain/snow line to where the 540 line is notated or does this go all the way to the coast in GA, SC, NC, and VA?

 

As Moto stated, it is best to look at the 850 line as opposed to the 540mb isohypse.  Keep in mind though, graphics with precip account for the period prior, while the 0C 850mb line is valid for the actual time-stamp.  Thickness and soundings are the best tools for determining dominant type, and how it is trending.