1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[SnowNiner]

 

You asked for it from FB. 

 

Matthew East

Snow fans....12z Euro. Nice Carolina snow event Tue. Models have hinted at this potential for a while. BUT, it's one run & I'm far from sold yet.

 

 

Somebody ask him what it will take to sell him....(I feel like Raj, before he could talk to women). 

 

Actually, have ther been many 6 day fantasy storms on the EURO?  I remember several 7+ ones but not quite under a weeks time. 

[tnweathernut]

More good news for our coastal friends....

@eric_carpenter: @BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue interesting #1 analog on SLU CIPS to 00z GFS at 96 hrs was 12/22/1989...led to blizzard on se coast!!!

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[FLweather]

It's one run of a model that has shown snow here many times this year only to not pan out!!! That's why there's not much chatter from Met's...  Although this one looks to have best potential so far this year in eastern sections.

 

 

Not to mention the bias of over amplifying the the pattern. Sorry folks but the Euro caught a virus today and is currently running a temperature of a 106. Its hallucinating.

[FallsLake]

From RAH:

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE TRANSITION BACK TO FRIGID AIR
BEGINS MON AFTERNOON AS THE POLAR LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC REASSERTS
ITSELF. MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT NW
TO SE INTO CENTRAL NC BY MIDDAY... THEN THE COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER
PAST THE MOUNTAINS INTO NC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LITTLE ELSE... DUE TO
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT... AND AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT FOR MON. HIGHS FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NW
TO LOW 50S SE STILL LOOK REASONABLE. POLAR AIR POURS INTO THE AREA
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A LARGE STRONG YUKON-SOURCED 1045+ MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN SE TOWARD NC. THE POLAR FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF AND FL WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY ROLLING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE GA COAST TUE MORNING
WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT... BUT DPVA AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE 850 MB FRONT KICKS
BACK TO THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS MANAGES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF
DEPICTS A MORE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX TRACKING NE THROUGH
NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED... WITH A SURFACE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE GFS... AND BRINGS CONSIDERABLE BANDED PRECIP BACK
OVER NC ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. IN EITHER CASE... ANY PRECIP
WOULD ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE SNOW... WITH 1000-850 MB AND 850-700 MB
PARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH EXTREMELY COLD (UNDER 1270 M AND 1530 M
RESPECTIVELY). WITH QUESTIONS REMAINING REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT-PRODUCING VORTICITY
MAX.... WILL EASE INTO A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT BY PLACING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR MASS HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS NC
WED SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-35 RANGE.
DRY WEATHER LIKELY WED NIGHT/THU WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS... ALTHOUGH THE RETREAT OF THE POLAR LOW UP INTO FAR NE CANADA
TOWARD GREENLAND AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS HEADING INTO LATE WEEK. -GIH

-- End Changed Discussion --

[nchighcountrywx]

And the ECMWF show -7f  in parts of Eastern NC DURING the tail end of the the Snow Storm !

 

 

 

 

 

[packbacker]

 

Not to mention the bias of over amplifying the the pattern. Sorry folks but the Euro caught a virus today and is currently running a temperature of a 106. Its hallucinating.

 

Day 6 Euro for for the Jan 2/3rd event that ended up hitting the MA and points NE showed 4-6" of snow for NC and the ENS was very supportive and of course we ended up getting squat, what can go wrong will wrong.  Map below is 144 hours out from Jan 2/3.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

 

Not to mention the bias of over amplifying the the pattern. Sorry folks but the Euro caught a virus today and is currently running a temperature of a 106. Its hallucinating.

You could be right, but the maps that MOTO posted clearly show a trend for pulling the trough back, and at 500 it's sending energy straight south from Canada into Texas, which results in a bending of the flow from the WSW across the area.  The surface map on the 12z Euro looks reasonable considering the look at 500.  The question is, are we done trending west with the mean trough? I personally think future runs will show similar results.

[NEGa]

Bingo, north Georgia has this potential storm righ where we want it at this stage of the game. In my experience these types of systems trend towards our favor not NC.

 

not looking great for n ga, but if we could eek out even an inch or two then thats fine while the carolinas get piles of snow lol.  the worst is being shut out by just a couple of miles. of course a nw shift gives us some and brings the heavier on the coast. i could handle that lol.  this is at least coming in closer range and not over a week away

[burgertime]

OK lets get one thing straight. The Euro seems to be steeped in mythology all of the sudden with people claiming it has shown snow many times. It hasn't . Plain and simple. This winter I think I've witnessed the Euro showing 1 3+inch snowfall in the medium range twice. It has shown some clippers diving down with light precip. It has not shown any "big dog" snows within 200 hours numerous times. I'll sit here and wait while you guys show me all the examples of the times it's shown snow. I'm not saying this will happen or to take it to the bank, but this myth about the Euro has got to stop. The GFS has caved to it more times than it has caved to the GFS. 

[GaWx]

that's a big problem for Coastal Locations, WAA aloft, or at least it would be, unless it's missing the upper levels vs the sfc features, and low.  for Coastal locales, optimum would be the 850mb low just offshore, case in point Feb 12 2010. otherwise, there would an extremely nasty area of ice in between the transition line.   one thing to note is how very cold the offshore SST's and near shore SST's are well down due to all the cold shots, particularly this month.  even saw some buoy reports 100 miles offshore where SST's are in the low-mid 40's, that's astoundingly low.

 

 As modeled, the 12Z Euro looks to me, after an initial period of plain rain before the sfc cools to 32 and lower, to be giving sections within about 50 miles of the GA and SC coasts (up to ~MYR) a good ~0.50-0.60" of qpf in the form of ZR/IP since the 850's are initially +4 C to +1C in these areas while the sfc is 32 or lower. Areas closer to the coast such as SAV and CHS likely would get the most ZR/not as much IP, and it would be a very rare sig. hit/big mess. It would then change to IP and then snow toward the end, when 850's finally fall to 0 C or lower. I estimate snowfall of ~1" SAV and 2" CHS. The clown maps of my provider as well a WxBell are showing 4-6" for SAV to CHS. This looks way overdone when considering 850's and the amount of precip. that would be ZR. Again, this is per my interpretation of this run, not what I'm predicting.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Day 6 Euro for for the Jan 2/3rd event that ended up hitting the MA and points NE showed 4-6" of snow for NC and the ENS was very supportive and of course we ended up getting squat, what can go wrong will wrong.  Map below is 144 hours out from Jan 2/3.

 

 

 

So the NW trend played out here...I look for that to happen here as well just not as drastically.  

[buckeyefan1]

lovely...I just happen to be in the panhandle....time frame?

Please read the thread  

[burgertime]

 

Not to mention the bias of over amplifying the the pattern. Sorry folks but the Euro caught a virus today and is currently running a temperature of a 106. Its hallucinating.

 

I would agree except that the GFS was very close to the what the Euro showed. It's been hinting at this type of even the last couple of runs. That alone tells me you can't just throw it out. More likely than not it will not be as epic as the Euro is showing. 

[billypg]

These things always trend northwest and I realize the setup is very different than what we normally get but I'd be surprised if this doesn't trend NW by about 100 to 150 miles. I like what I am seeing for most of GA, SC, & NC 

This reminds me a lot of our 88 blizzard in GSP. 

We got 15 inches officially at GSP and a arctic front passed just before a gom low passed to our south.

We had heavy snow with temps in the low to mid teens most of the day !

[Marion_NC_WX]

OK lets get one thing straight. The Euro seems to be steeped in mythology all of the sudden with people claiming it has shown snow many times. It hasn't . Plain and simple. This winter I think I've witnessed the Euro showing 1 3+inch snowfall in the medium range. It has shown some clippers diving down with light precip. It has not shown any "big dog" snows within 200 hours. I'll sit here and wait while you guys show me all the examples of the times it's shown snow. I'm not saying this will happen or to take it to the bank, but this myth about the Euro has got to stop. The GFS has caved to it more times than it has caved to the GFS. 

 

 

Thanks for the dose of reality...the Euro has been doing a heck of a lot better IMO all cold season. Infact the only time this entire winter that I can remember the Euro going bonkers was with a major phasing event right around or just after Thanksgiving that was going to create a massive cutoff over North Carolina with thickness and 850's supportive of snow. And of course given climatology, we all knew that wasn't going to happen in November...sure enough one model cycle later, it didn't phase and we never saw it again.

[NEGa]

It's one run of a model that has shown snow here many times this year only to not pan out!!! That's why there's not much chatter from Met's...  Although this one looks to have best potential so far this year in eastern sections.

 

i sure wouldnt be hyping a big snowstorm in the se at this point - they have to face the public.  that being said if things continue looking good not only will nws and media ratchet up but the board too   this is a great set up with the cold air already here and well in place, surface temps chilled down and as others have said the potential for any snow that does make it this way to be of a high ratio. fluffy powder doesnt happen too often in the se

[NCStateMMY]

The conversations on this board is starting to remind me of the days leading up to Christmas 2010.

[packbacker]

OK lets get one thing straight. The Euro seems to be steeped in mythology all of the sudden with people claiming it has shown snow many times. It hasn't . Plain and simple. This winter I think I've witnessed the Euro showing 1 3+inch snowfall in the medium range twice. It has shown some clippers diving down with light precip. It has not shown any "big dog" snows within 200 hours numerous times. I'll sit here and wait while you guys show me all the examples of the times it's shown snow. I'm not saying this will happen or to take it to the bank, but this myth about the Euro has got to stop. The GFS has caved to it more times than it has caved to the GFS. 

 

Respectively disagree…this is your quote from for the Jan2/3 event from the 0z Euro run.  Not sitting here saying the Euro has completely sucked but the GFS has been better, the GFS was better with this past storm over the Euro, do you really need me to dig that up to prove it?  But your right in your post above, the GFS and Euro agree somewhat for next weeks storm.  There is some phasing going on here so still like having the Euro on our side.

 

@156 still light snow in NC/SC. Central NC has moderate snow. This could be one to really watch. That energy coming in on the backside doesn't put out much QPF but when it's that cold aloft it can spell good things. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41787-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion/page-74#entry2578973

[VeronicaCorningstone]

More good news for our coastal friends....

@eric_carpenter: @BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue interesting #1 analog on SLU CIPS to 00z GFS at 96 hrs was 12/22/1989...led to blizzard on se coast!!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was wondering if the '89 Christmas storm was gonna be mentioned.   From my untrained eye, it seems to be a pretty similar situation ATM.  That was a GREAT storm for the coast...http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19891224.gif

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks for the dose of reality...the Euro has been doing a heck of a lot better IMO all cold season. Infact the only time this entire winter that I can remember the Euro going bonkers was with a major phasing event right around or just after Thanksgiving that was going to create a massive cutoff over North Carolina with thickness and 850's supportive of snow. And of course given climatology, we all knew that wasn't going to happen in November...sure enough one model cycle later, it didn't phase and we never saw it again.

it just had a big western nc snowstorm about ten days ago because rdwx said he would be in sylva. Its had a couple more too. And this has been going on for the past few years.

[burgertime]

 

Respectively disagree…this is your quote from for the Jan2/3 event from the 0z Euro run.  Not sitting here saying the Euro has completely sucked but the GFS has been better, the GFS was better with this past storm over the Euro, do you really need me to dig that up to prove it?  But your right in your post above, the GFS and Euro agree somewhat for next weeks storm.  There is some phasing going on here so still like having the Euro on our side.

 

@156 still light snow in NC/SC. Central NC has moderate snow. This could be one to really watch. That energy coming in on the backside doesn't put out much QPF but when it's that cold aloft it can spell good things. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41787-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion/page-74#entry2578973

 

 

Yes it backs up what I said, light snow to moderate. Not a big dog and just something to watch. I specifically stated there wasn't much qpf associated. It just had the potential if it got better to spell good things. This has usually been the case of the Euro. Now remember when the GFS was showing run after run of a torch. I rest my case. 

[packbacker]

From HM in the Mid-Atlantic Forum 

 

As others have noted, MR-LR modeling has been quite variable with individual storm threats. But longer-term means, climo and general patterns have been stellar in the numerical guidance. Anyway, notice the modeling doesn't quite partially phase these waves as the system leaves the East. The GFS was actually a lot closer in doing it than the ECMWF. We'll see how this goes but I like the potential a lot for the following reasons:

1. All 3 streams are present and become 1 upper-level jet (plot 200mb winds e.g.) up the East Coast.

2. This wave drops straight down from polar lats behind a departing PV that was just anomalously south.

3. Brief "-NAO west" blip negative at Day 3-5 will begin to rise thereafter as PV races back north.

4. Some Pacific flow begins undercutting PNA in about 5 days.

5. Enhanced oceanic baroclinicity from recent/incoming Arctic Air.

 

 

Is he saying this is a triple phaser, or close to a triple phaser?  You see the partial phase of the Euro here, if it fully phased it could be even a bigger dog, of course if it missed it would be wide right.

[Jon]

 

Respectively disagree…this is your quote from for the Jan2/3 event from the 0z Euro run.  Not sitting here saying the Euro has completely sucked but the GFS has been better, the GFS was better with this past storm over the Euro, do you really need me to dig that up to prove it?  But your right in your post above, the GFS and Euro agree somewhat for next weeks storm.  There is some phasing going on here so still like having the Euro on our side.

 

@156 still light snow in NC/SC. Central NC has moderate snow. This could be one to really watch. That energy coming in on the backside doesn't put out much QPF but when it's that cold aloft it can spell good things. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41787-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion/page-74#entry2578973

 

Didn't we already talk about why the GFS was better? I remember explaining it to brick, maybe that's the only one who read it. During that chaotic pattern the Euro simply saw the potential first because it got the pattern right first. GFS wasn't even close to getting the pattern right (it had a ridge) so by the time it did the storm was already inside truncation and then the GFS was "right" sending it NE.

 

There's a big difference between being right in that case and being right in this one, IMO.

[packbacker]

Yes it backs up what I said, light snow to moderate. Not a big dog and just something to watch. I specifically stated there wasn't much qpf associated. It just had the potential if it got better to spell good things. This has usually been the case of the Euro. Now remember when the GFS was showing run after run of a torch. I rest my case. 

 

I just disputed your case, the past 2 big events the Euro didn't do well, granted they were not SE big events but they were east coast big events.  This is what you said later in the thread, that matches up fairly well with what we are seeing here, I consider that fairly big.

 

Per SV snow map. Most of NC ends up with 1-3 inches. RDU I-40 (east side) ends up 4-6. 

[Lookout]

And the ECMWF show -7f  in parts of Eastern NC DURING the tail end of the the Snow Storm !

 

 

 

 

That is after the storm has passed on thur am. . However, it does show temps in the teens over eastern nc for most of this storm. That is impressive enough.

not looking great for n ga, but if we could eek out even an inch or two then thats fine while the carolinas get piles of snow lol.  the worst is being shut out by just a couple of miles. of course a nw shift gives us some and brings the heavier on the coast. i could handle that lol.  this is at least coming in closer range and not over a week away

 

I'm not going to allow myself to get too excited. I know moto showed a favorable trend in 500mb heights but I'm still worried this will be crushed or it shears out and we stay dry while the coast/south ga has all the fun. Especially considering that ensembles generally agree on this likely being further southeast than northwest. Just about everywhere in the country has seen snow or ice except around here...even most of north ga. I think I would be rather sick if this hammers areas to the south. ugh.

 As modeled, the 12Z Euro looks to me, after an initial period of plain rain before the sfc cools to 32 and lower, to be giving sections within about 50 miles of the GA and SC coasts (up to ~MYR) a good ~0.50-0.60" of qpf in the form of ZR/IP since the 850's are initially +4 C to +1C in these areas while the sfc is 32 or lower. Areas closer to the coast such as SAV and CHS likely would get the most ZR/not as much IP, and it would be a very rare sig. hit/big mess. It would then change to IP and then snow toward the end, when 850's finally fall to 0 C or lower. I estimate snowfall of ~1" SAV and 2" CHS. The clown maps of my provider as well a WxBell are showing 4-6" for SAV to CHS. This looks way overdone when considering 850's and the amount of precip. that would be ZR. Again, this is per my interpretation of this run, not what I'm predicting.

I think  one of the more interesting aspects of this run is the fact of freezing rain (or sleet/snow depending on exact soundings or changing to snow before ending) that could occur over extreme south georgia and extreme north florida. Snow on the carolina coast is pretty rare  but not incredibly so but freezing rain down into north florida I would guess is rare indeed.

[NCSNOW]

Didn't we already talk about why the GFS was better? I remember explaining it to brick, maybe that's the only one who read it. During that chaotic pattern the Euro simply saw the potential first because it got the pattern right first. GFS wasn't even close to getting the pattern right (it had a ridge) so by the time it did the storm was already inside truncation and then the GFS was "right" sending it NE.

 

There's a big difference between being right in that case and being right in this one, IMO.

Thank you,Thank you! Since last year he makes this statement time and time again. We all have our opinions and what you just stated about the past event is spot on. Yes the euro has had a couple hiccups in 5-7 day range ( the range it trumps to oblivion every other model traditionally IMO) this year with the super fast flow. But it hands down sniffs things out way better in the mid range. It's not perfect and the next few runs will be telling. The gold nugget is to see if it's ensembles back it up and monitor their consistency.

[LithiaWx]

Something about this setup screams southern slider to me.

[burgertime]

I just disputed your case, the past 2 big events the Euro didn't do well, granted they were not SE big events but they were east coast big events.  This is what you said later in the thread, that matches up fairly well with what we are seeing here, I consider that fairly big.

 

Per SV snow map. Most of NC ends up with 1-3 inches. RDU I-40 (east side) ends up 4-6. 

 

Might as well quote this as well: 

 

 

 

It doesn't get cold enough really till about 150. The system is weak but it looks like with the energy phasing (again just guessing here) it really juices up that vortmax which allows the atmosphere to really wring out. RH isn't that great looking right now but I'll take my chances on that getting better. 

 

Again even that one didn't look great but sure I'll concede that it was as I stated one of the two times I saw a "big dog" storm for the SE. Go ahead and show me all the other examples since they seem to be so plentiful.

[tnweathernut]

Something about this setup screams southern slider to me.

Everything about this setup will confine whatever happens to the south.  Certainly can't go up the coast with 500 looking the way it does.

[rdwhynot]

Spann's afternoon comments about next week...

"WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK: The GFS is trying to come around to the ECMWF solution, showing a chance of light precipitation across Alabama on Friday, January 31. The thermal fields on the latest 12Z runs are actually a little warmer, and suggest it could be mostly rain. But, it the precipitation begins early enough, it could be in the form of light freezing rain, sleet, or maybe even some snow. We simply don’t know now… this is 8 days away and nothing more than voodoo. We will watch model trends, and have a much better idea of what will happen this weekend. No need to get worked up about it now. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details."